Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Stormcenter]

Remember folks dont post any information that may be false because violates the rules of storm2k.

if you were referring to me, it was not false information. According to Dr. Masters: "The shear is forecast to remain low through the next five days. There is a zone of very high shear to the system's north, but it is forecast to retreat to the west ahead of the developing storm."

Well it doesn't look low right now. I wouldn't get too excited just yet.
I'm curious to read the first discussion and see if they mention what Dr. Master's is referring to.

[rnbaida]

What is the nearest radar system to this TS?

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Remember kids, the atmosphere is a fluid. It's not going to stay the way that shear map depicts until a new map comes out.

right, that's why we're looking at shear *tendency* maps....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html 18Z just updated too...

[SWFLA_CANE]

So if the shear doesn't relax it will be another Chris?

[miamicanes177]

Well it doesn't look low right now

i know but that 5-10kt shear pocket has been following this wave the past couple of days. So the shear is not too bad right now.

[gopherfan21]

if barbados has surface winds at 38mph it has got to be a TS with winds of al least 45mph..

Um? ...

Please feel free to show me the formula for that conversion.

[Wthrman13]

Remember folks dont post any information that may be false because violates the rules of storm2k.

if you were referring to me, it was not false information. According to Dr. Masters: "The shear is forecast to remain low through the next five days. There is a zone of very high shear to the system's north, but it is forecast to retreat to the west ahead of the developing storm."

My experience has been that trying to forecast shear past even 24 hours or so is very difficult, especially in the tropics. This is because the magnitude and direction of the shear vector depends on the winds at more than on level in the atmosphere, and thus errors in the model forecasted winds at many levels add up to create even larger errors in the shear. Also, there are less data, in general, on UL winds over the oceans, although satellite data is assimilated in the models (i.e. cloud drift winds, radiances, etc.).

Also, and this is pretty anecdotal, but I've noticed a tendency for the GFS to weaken TUTT lows too quickly over the past few years, but this could be my imagination.

[rnbaida]

folks, i dont think that shear will be a problem for the next couple of days...Just relax and worry about whether it will be a TD or TS at 5pm...

[Scorpion]

So if the shear doesn't relax it will be another Chris?

The difference is that this circulation will be much larger.

[Buck]

Looks like new, taller cloud tops are popping up over the center...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Normandy]

^ Im assuming hes taking into account the surface friction.

[SWFLA_CANE]

So if the shear doesn't relax it will be another Chris?

The difference is that this circulation will be much larger.

How does that effect the storms structure...Will it be easier or harder for the shear to rip it apart?
Thanks

[gopherfan21]

right, that's why we're looking at shear *tendency* maps....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html 18Z just updated too...

You are still relying on the map (which is basically saying the TUTT is strengthening a bit as it backs toward the west). Remember, the TUTT is backing towards the west...away from the system. By the time it starts to reach that area of high shear as depicted now on the map, the shear will be further to the west.

[Buck]

So if the shear doesn't relax it will be another Chris?

The difference is that this circulation will be much larger.

How does that effect the storms structure...Will it be easier or harder for the shear to rip it apart?
Thanks

Harder... theres more convection for shear to have to displace from the circulation in a larger storm. But shear can still damage any storm.

[Scorpion]

So if the shear doesn't relax it will be another Chris?

The difference is that this circulation will be much larger.

How does that effect the storms structure...Will it be easier or harder for the shear to rip it apart?
Thanks

MUCH harder.

[Steve]

>>Also, and this is pretty anecdotal, but I've noticed a tendency for the GFS to weaken TUTT lows too quickly over the past few years, but this could be my imagination.

I've noticed it too just as it always weakens ridging in the western Atlantic. I'm not a statistician, but you'd think they'd fix this error. Not a potential development goes by that the GFS doesn't recurve at 40, 50, 60, 70, or 80W only to figure out that it missed day after day after day after day after day.

>>Is the Canadian Model any good?

Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. If you go to the Environment Canada site, there are some pretty good graphics and depictions there which can help you understand the "whys" with the Canadian. I prefer the Canadian Ensembles because they put stuff all over the place. You can print those panels out and throw darts at em and get some right every now and then. Here's a link for fun!

Here's a link to the 168 hour High (blue) and Low (red) pressures. Enjoy!

http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/ ... 168_e.html

Steve

[Mac]

So if the shear doesn't relax it will be another Chris?

The difference is that this circulation will be much larger.

How does that effect the storms structure...Will it be easier or harder for the shear to rip it apart?
Thanks

MUCH harder.

"Harder" is a relative term. I've never personally seen ANY hurricane that can withstand the effects of shear, unless the shear is located in such a place that it actually improves the outflow--serving to "vent" the hurricane. Bottom line, even a Cat 5 hurricane is no match for strong shear.

[Scorpion]

So if the shear doesn't relax it will be another Chris?

The difference is that this circulation will be much larger.

How does that effect the storms structure...Will it be easier or harder for the shear to rip it apart?
Thanks

MUCH harder.

"Harder" is a relative term. I've never personally seen ANY hurricane that can withstand the effects of shear, unless the shear is located in such a place that it actually improves the outflow--serving to "vent" the hurricane. Bottom line, even a Cat 5 hurricane is no match for strong shear.

Oh yes, definitely. However it's doubtful we will see the entire LLC separate from the storm just because of some 30 kt shear.

[storms in NC]

right, that's why we're looking at shear *tendency* maps....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html 18Z just updated too...

You are still relying on the map (which is basically saying the TUTT is strengthening a bit as it backs toward the west). Remember, the TUTT is backing towards the west...away from the system. By the time it starts to reach that area of high shear as depicted now on the map, the shear will be further to the west.

If this is the forcast then it is going to turn more to the WNW or NW then?

[Mac]

So if the shear doesn't relax it will be another Chris?

The difference is that this circulation will be much larger.

How does that effect the storms structure...Will it be easier or harder for the shear to rip it apart?
Thanks

MUCH harder.

"Harder" is a relative term. I've never personally seen ANY hurricane that can withstand the effects of shear, unless the shear is located in such a place that it actually improves the outflow--serving to "vent" the hurricane. Bottom line, even a Cat 5 hurricane is no match for strong shear.

Oh yes, definitely. However it's doubtful we will see the entire LLC separate from the storm just because of some 30 kt shear.

Agreed. The convection would just be blown off and the storm would have a hard time getting its act together.