TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

Sanibel · #61 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:22 am

The central convection is either shearing back away from the spiral that is pulling ahead or the system has slowed and brought the convection over the LLC. If it is shearing back there's a chance for disruption and weakening. Myself, I think we'll see another nocturnal blow-up tonight.

#62 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:22 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I want a wave

I want a tee time tomorrow afternoon, or stuck in the office just 1/2 miles from the golf course

Tee time? On August 26th?? :lol:

Just giving you a hard time...

Aquawind · #63 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:23 am

Kiss another weekend down the drain Mets.. :lol:

Maybe next weekend Derek. :wink:

ConvergenceZone · #64 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:24 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I want a wave

I want a tee time tomorrow afternoon, or stuck in the office just 1/2 miles from the golf course

yea, that stinks, I can understand your frustration Derek, Nobody wants to work on the weekends.. Unfortunately, I don't see a wave coming, but we can dream

#65 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:26 am

Windtalker1 wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:Interesting...It's got to be why GFDL has it moving towards Fla
What I have been saying all along.

Remember the GFDL originally had it into the FL straits, if that Low of Georgia gets going enough, it would provide the weakness that the GFDL sees.

Wx_Warrior · #66 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:26 am

KFDM posted it last night and couldn't understand why...maybe now we know?

#67 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:26 am

Windtalker1 wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:Interesting...It's got to be why GFDL has it moving towards Fla
What I have been saying all along.

same here! and noone is listing to me when i say that SFL still needs to watch out!

#68 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:27 am

gatorcane wrote:what is spining in the Central GOM? Looks like some convection is startin to fire.

Been there for days and really isnt going anywhere. That's why I'm kinda wondering if TD5 is supposed to get in the Gulf, where's it gonna go with that there already?

#69 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:27 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:KFDM posted it last night and couldn't understand why...maybe now we know?

The models last night turned TD #5 into the Eastern GOM and near the Florida West coast for some reason. Both GFS, CMC, and GFDL showed this and then they backed off some this morning...interesting..

#70 Postby **Blown Away** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:29 am

I'm confused w/ TD5's position?? The 11am says the center is South of San Juan at 13.5/66.4! To me the center looks to be near 13.5/65.5, San Juan is near 66.8?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

PTrackerLA · #71 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:29 am

I don't think we're going to get off easy with this one as we did with chris. It could go anywhere but with the model consensus and the nhc track it's time for everyone along the gulf coast to take this seriously. Evacuations could begin monday in the areas affected by katrina last year if it poses ANY threat to the northern gulf as a hurricane. I Don't have a good feeling about this one at all.

#72 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:30 am

LAwxrgal wrote:
gatorcane wrote:what is spining in the Central GOM? Looks like some convection is startin to fire.

Been there for days and really isnt going anywhere. That's why I'm kinda wondering if TD5 is supposed to get in the Gulf, where's it gonna go with that there already?

That UL was supposed to have dissapated early this week.

#73 Postby **TampaFl** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:31 am

With the upper low over the central Gulf appears stationary & maybe working down to the surface, the upper low moving slowly westward over eastern Cuba, & the possible developing system off thwe Ga. coast, how could this affect the future track of TD 5/Ernesto?? Thoughts & comments welcomed.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Robert 8-)

#74 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:31 am

Stormcenter wrote:
LAwxrgal wrote:
gatorcane wrote:what is spining in the Central GOM? Looks like some convection is startin to fire.

Been there for days and really isnt going anywhere. That's why I'm kinda wondering if TD5 is supposed to get in the Gulf, where's it gonna go with that there already?

That UL was supposed to have dissapated early this week.

Heh, well, we know that didn't happen did it? And it really shows no signs of budging...

#75 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:34 am

PTrackerLA wrote:I don't think we're going to get off easy with this one as we did with chris. It could go anywhere but with the model consensus and the nhc track it's time for everyone along the gulf coast to take this seriously. Evacuations could begin monday in the areas affected by katrina last year if it poses ANY threat to the northern gulf as a hurricane. I Don't have a good feeling about this one at all.

I actually think there is a chance this may be still in Carribean by Monday.
No one is going to issue evacuations if that is the case. I understand your concern but as I stated in another it's not even in the central Carribean. There are still many things that can happen to affect the future course of TD5.

Acral · #76 Postby **Acral** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:35 am

Put a few beers in me and I'll be listing and lurching....

That blob in the GoM simply refuses to move or intensify or anything. It's an eyesore.

#77 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:36 am

LAwxrgal wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
LAwxrgal wrote:
gatorcane wrote:what is spining in the Central GOM? Looks like some convection is startin to fire.

Been there for days and really isnt going anywhere. That's why I'm kinda wondering if TD5 is supposed to get in the Gulf, where's it gonna go with that there already?

That UL was supposed to have dissapated early this week.

Heh, well, we know that didn't happen did it? And it really shows no signs of budging...

The ULL developing near cuba should take care of that. The global models cut off a ULL from the main ULT and bring it westward towards the
GOM in front of this system. The GFS has been fairly consistent showing this feature moving westward.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Nogaps has also been fairly consisten with the same westward track of the ULL but, weakens it as it moves westward.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

In the short term they both show ULL cutting off of the ULT but, different solutions as to the the future past 72 hours.

Sanibel · #78 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:36 am

I think it has pulled up enough already that you can discount a south track through the Caribbean.

That WV synoptic looks like a small tongue of Atlantic High is presently guiding it under those two ULL's. This doesn't look like a strong guiding ridge above the system but rather a weak steering synoptic that could recurve.

#79 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:36 am

GFS loses it in the SE Gulf next week. It shows high over Florida so just don't see how Ernie would go to Florida if it survives.

#80 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:36 am

PTrackerLA wrote:I don't think we're going to get off easy with this one as we did with chris. It could go anywhere but with the model consensus and the nhc track it's time for everyone along the gulf coast to take this seriously. Evacuations could begin monday in the areas affected by katrina last year if it poses ANY threat to the northern gulf as a hurricane. I Don't have a good feeling about this one at all.

I know everybody's on edge because of the Katrina anniversary but we still don't know yet if this thing will even survive because there are so many variables at play.

TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

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