Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[mvtrucking]

I know what will be said now, but too bad, I have to say it. That "cone of death" keeps creeping more towards the Fl peninsula every update.

There is a higher chance of me winning 1 million bucks tomorrow than S FL being affected.

I think you are right on that. Probably a better chance of a Powerball win..

[ROCK]

New Europen has South Texas again...to each is own

New Euro says La-that part that sticks out near the Mississipi border
http://www.ecmwf.int/

how an you tell which low it is?? just curious....

[Brent]

New Europen has South Texas again...to each is own

New Euro says La-that part that sticks out near the Mississipi border
http://www.ecmwf.int/

That's where Katrina hit.

[skysummit]

Heh, there isn't anywhere in Florida west of Pensacola.

A whole 5 miles

Yea...plus that brand new truck weigh station they just built.

[LAwxrgal]

New Europen has South Texas again...to each is own

New Euro says La-that part that sticks out near the Mississipi border
http://www.ecmwf.int/

That's where Katrina hit.

Exactly. Lower Plaquemines Parish.

[DESTRUCTION5]

New Europen has South Texas again...to each is own

New Euro says La-that part that sticks out near the Mississipi border
http://www.ecmwf.int/

That's where Katrina hit.

3 globals say this now..NOGAPS,ECMWF,and GFDL...Scary

[Air Force Met]

Since I have not heard an opinion on this since yesterday..

Pro Mets...where do you currently think this will go? Have the forecasted steering currents changed since yesterday or is this still a MX, TX, LA threat down the road?

Won't know anything for a couple of days.

Oh I know, and I am not expecting an exact answer. Just wanted to see if their overall thinking was the same as it was last night.

I think I am still going to stick with 90W and points west. I think Mexico is looking less likely. It all depends on how the ridge evolves.

[rnbaida]

can someone please show me a wind shear graphic. Thank you

[Lindaloo]

New Europen has South Texas again...to each is own

New Euro says La-that part that sticks out near the Mississipi border
http://www.ecmwf.int/

That's where Katrina hit.

3 globals say this now..NOGAPS,ECMWF,and GFDL...Scary

Yeah, and that could change tomorrow.

[Scorpion]

New Europen has South Texas again...to each is own

New Euro says La-that part that sticks out near the Mississipi border
http://www.ecmwf.int/

That's where Katrina hit.

3 globals say this now..NOGAPS,ECMWF,and GFDL...Scary

Only difference is that with Katrina, they showed a huge hurricane. Here they show a weak low.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Since I have not heard an opinion on this since yesterday..

Pro Mets...where do you currently think this will go? Have the forecasted steering currents changed since yesterday or is this still a MX, TX, LA threat down the road?

Won't know anything for a couple of days.

Oh I know, and I am not expecting an exact answer. Just wanted to see if their overall thinking was the same as it was last night.

I think I am still going to stick with 90W and points west. I think Mexico is looking less likely. It all depends on how the ridge evolves.

Thanks for the update AFM!

[wxman57]

Here's a plot I made showing the latest dynamic models and the NHC track. NHC's track is left of all the 18Z dynamic guidance:

[Comanche]

SLOW down guys, the kitchen is running out of crow!

[Cape Verde]

The earlier discussions on this thread made me believe that Ernesto stood a very good chance of becoming "Chris II" this evening.

But there's not a hint of that in the NHC discussion. Does it not matter that the LLC outran the convection?

I have no doubt that this will be a significant storm if it reaches the GOM. But the constant reversals of whether this is a storm to worry about is about to wear me out.

[ROCK]

Here's a plot I made showing the latest dynamic models and the NHC track. NHC's track is left of all the 18Z dynamic guidance:
[img]
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto31.gif[/img]

not able to access link??

[TSmith274]

Here's a plot I made showing the latest dynamic models and the NHC track. NHC's track is left of all the 18Z dynamic guidance:
[img]
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto31.gif[/img]

I think your link is broken.

[ROCK]

The earlier discussions on this thread made me believe that Ernesto stood a very good chance of becoming "Chris II" this evening.

But there's not a hint of that in the NHC discussion. Does it not matter that the LLC outran the convection?

I have no doubt that this will be a significant storm if it reaches the GOM. But the constant reversals of whether this is a storm to worry about is about to wear me out.

its like a bad soap opera...not that I watch them......

[DESTRUCTION5]

Here's a plot I made showing the latest dynamic models and the NHC track. NHC's track is left of all the 18Z dynamic guidance:
[img]
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto31.gif[/img]

Gotta fix it but That is scary as heck for E gulf Coast..

[stpeteweathergal]

Just remove the /img from the end of wxman57's link

[Stormcenter]

New Europen has South Texas again...to each is own

New Euro says La-that part that sticks out near the Mississipi border
http://www.ecmwf.int/

That's where Katrina hit.

3 globals say this now..NOGAPS,ECMWF,and GFDL...Scary

Only difference is that with Katrina, they showed a huge hurricane. Here they show a weak low.

That is a VERY important difference. A majority of the models predicted Katrina's strength.