TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

the_winds_that_sheared_me · #62 Postby **the_winds_that_sheared_me** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:51 pm

delete

#63 Postby **JtSmarts** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:52 pm

The tracking map looks very Rita-ish.

Extremeweatherguy · #64 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:52 pm

Latest 5-day position is SSW of N.O. and heading WNW or NW as a Cat. 2!

Mac · #65 Postby **Mac** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:52 pm

I've always had a lot of faith in Derek and the other mets here on the board. But I think the shear is going to let up some in the next 12 to 24 hours and I do believe that we will have a minimal hurricane on our hands at this time tomorrow.

Javlin · #66 Postby **Javlin** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:53 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:seems like the center is just on the outer edge of the warmer convection. Not horribly exposed though:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

That is cool the pic in the Lower /Left you can see as Derek mentioned the LLC is exposed.

BUD · #67 Postby **BUD** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:53 pm

Cape Verde wrote:I work for a major oil company in Houston. We have to watch these things because of our offshore operations.

Thanks,
Some News reports are coming in that gas prices are going up this weekend.

rnbaida · #68 Postby **rnbaida** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:54 pm

Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 25, 2006

...Ernesto slightly stronger over the eastern Caribbean Sea...

at 11 PM AST...0300z...the tropical storm watch has been upgraded to
a Tropical Storm Warning along the southwestern peninsula of Haiti.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from the Haiti-Dominican
Republic border westward to the southwestern tip of Haiti.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica.

Interests in the Cayman Islands and Cuba should monitor the progress
of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 14.8 north...longitude 69.1 west or about 260
miles...420 km...south-southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican
Republic and about 555 miles...895 km...east-southeast of Kingston
Jamaica.

Ernesto is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr
...And this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
On this track the center of Ernesto will be passing near the
southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph...75
km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 24 hours. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Ernesto overnight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km...
mainly to the northeast from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected in association with
Ernesto across portions of Puerto Rico...Dominican Republic and
Haiti...with possible isolated amounts of 8 inches.

Repeating the 1100 PM AST position...14.8 N...69.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45
mph. Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am AST.

$$
Forecaster Mainelli/Knabb

#69 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:54 pm

Look at the eastern side of the cone. It begins to extend further east possibly expecting the weakness toward the end of the forecast.

#70 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:54 pm

Due south of N.O. on Wed. and headed toward TX/LA border per the NHC.
I'm not worried yet but I will be if the NHC projected track looks like this on Sunday.

#71 Postby **Bailey1777** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:55 pm

They keep diagramming the seperation of the LLC and MLC. Shear is here. It's gonna happen IMO just not yet.

#72 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:55 pm

Once again, I would not put much stock in any forecasted position beyond 72 hours until this storm truly aligns itself and all of the modeling gets a good sense of what is happening in the atmosphere.

All of this .. Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, etc ... it's all a dice roll right now, nothing more.

Why can't this go to Nebraska? (oops, sorry Senor Pepr).

rnbaida · #73 Postby **rnbaida** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:55 pm

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

El Nino · #74 Postby **El Nino** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:56 pm

85 knots now.

Wind speed probabilities higher :

I have a baaaaaaaaaaaad feeling about this.

CYCLONE MIKE · #75 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:57 pm

skysummit, have any of the mets around your area mentioned the front affecting the track leading towards a more northerly course towards us in the latter part of the week?

jwayne · #76 Postby **jwayne** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:58 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Due south of N.O. on Wed. and headed toward TX/LA border per the NHC.
I'm not worried yet but I will be if the NHC projected track looks like this on Sunday.

extrapolate that wed position out into thursday and it's dead on galveston. glad that is 5 days away since it will probably change!!!

rnbaida · #77 Postby **rnbaida** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:59 pm

check out the outflow.... sign of strenthening

#78 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 10:00 pm

Look at the shear ahead of it though.

GalvestonDuck · #79 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 10:00 pm

jwayne wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Due south of N.O. on Wed. and headed toward TX/LA border per the NHC.
I'm not worried yet but I will be if the NHC projected track looks like this on Sunday.

extrapolate that wed position out into thursday and it's dead on galveston. glad that is 5 days away since it will probably change!!!

*waving hand back and forth rapidly*
Come here...walk into this. :wink:

Mac · #80 Postby **Mac** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 10:00 pm

Yep. Gonna strengthen tonight during the diurnal max...shear going to diminish tomorrow...cat 1 can by this time tomorrow.

Disclaimer: This is not an official forecast. I'm not a met...just a soothsayer.

TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

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