TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[jlauderdal]

This is a system that is strengthening under shear in the east Caribbean - a place known for not supporting sheared systems.

It has nothing ahead of it but the untapped west Caribbean and prime August Gulf of Mexico that supports storms like Camille in August historically.

You tell me.

By the way, Gulf temperature off Sanibel: 89*

is there a place that is known for supporting sheared sytems?

[caneman]

This is a system that is strengthening under shear in the east Caribbean - a place known for not supporting sheared systems.

It has nothing ahead of it but the untapped west Caribbean and prime August Gulf of Mexico that supports storms like Camille in August historically.

You tell me.

By the way, Gulf temperature off Sanibel: 89*

is there a place that is known for supporting sheared sytems?

yeah, typically the East Caribbis is known as a graveyard for tropical systems

[Stratosphere747]

Keep telling myself to think short-term...

But the eastward bias is taking form.

[HollynLA]

Stratos
Yesterday is was a western bias, then north central GOM bias, now eastern bias (don't really know that I would call it that yet) but my point is that it will continue to change daily for atleast the next 3 days so stay vigilent and don't consider yourself safe until it's inland.

[Wx_Warrior]

Bad feeling NO eastward could be in some trouble guys....

[Wx_Warrior]

wow...gfs had it a cat 4 hitting galveston on thursday...now take a look

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

[Starburst]

Stratos
Yesterday is was a western bias, then north central GOM bias, now eastern bias (don't really know that I would call it that yet) but my point is that it will continue to change daily for atleast the next 3 days so stay vigilent and don't consider yourself safe until it's inland.

especially since it is not gaining much lattitude I even read someones post that said it may have lost a bit of lattitude.

[HURAKAN]

wow...gfs had it a cat 4 hitting galveston on thursday...now take a look

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

Usually when I look at the GFDL model is for the track forecast and not the intensity, but as you say, it was a big shift from Galveston to almost Pensacola.

[Scorpion]

I went to bed last night and Ernesto had a tiny bit of deep convection that concerned me. Now it has expanded significantly. I don't like that trend.

[HollynLA]

Exactly Starburst. These models with continue to shift all around and I don't think the NHC or the models will have a good hold on Ernesto until we're about 72 hours out. Right now, it's shifting all over the place.

[caneman]

Looks to me like shear is starting to get to it. Looks exposed on the Western side

[TSmith274]

We all know the NHC is very deliberate in their forecasts. However, I can't see how they can avoid shifting the forecast track eastward a bit. I'm starting to get a little worried. At some point, I believe they will indeed target the New Orleans area. I'm just not looking forward to the hype. However, I personally expect the track to continue to shift eastward, perhaps to the MS/AL state line. Time will tell.

[soonertwister]

Seems to me that the LLC must have relocated well west of the former fix, because the latest fix seems to indicate pretty unlikely forward motion in the last 12 hours. Am I just blowing bubbles here?

[caneman]

06 GFS looks South of PEnsacola moving North although not that strong

[cpdaman]

when u look at the nhc site the western atlantic view gives u a larger PERSPECTIVE to view ernesto from and u can get a good idea of how much shear this storm has to fight. the ULL just nw or jamiaca doesn't seem to be in a hurry to move and ernesto's game of catch up with it's llc seems like it will get a bit more challenging later today

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

gulf coasters this shear could save u this time

[Mac]

Looks to me like shear is starting to get to it. Looks exposed on the Western side

Actually, I'm now seeing outflow improving on the western side of the storm--an indiciation, to me, that shear is becoming less of an issue. I'm still prediciting cat 1 by the end of the day today...or very close to it. Looks like he's locked and loaded and ready for business.

[Scorpion]

I believe Ernesto has slowed down...

[dwg71]

when u look at the nhc site the western atlantic view gives u a larger PERSPECTIVE to view ernesto from and u can get a good idea of how much shear this storm has to fight. the ULL just nw or jamiaca doesn't seem to be in a hurry to move and ernesto's game of catch up with it's llc seems like it will get a bit more challenging later today

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

gulf coasters this shear could save u this time

Appears to be entering the increased shear at 72W, looks really affected on the west side, lets hope it takes a beating.

[dwg71]

I believe Ernesto has slowed down...

I believe its just the west side being supressed...

[Scorpion]

I believe Ernesto has slowed down...

I believe its just the west side being supressed...

No, recon supported this significantly.