T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

Scorpion · #61 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:21 am

jason0509 wrote:Is Ernesto opening up into a tropical wave? LOL

Even if it did... it would be able to regenerate once the ULL moves away.

#62 Postby **AJC3** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:22 am

Two recent MI passes have yet to be posted on the NRL site.

14:51:03 UTC N-17 518 miles from nadir
15:08:36 UTC TERRA 322 milaes from nadir

we'll see what they show.

cinlfla · #63 Postby **cinlfla** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:22 am

I'm so confused now it isn't even funny, because I was watching the vis loop and I to did not see an llc where the NHC has its point. I see some cirulation to the north east a little but thats it.

Extremeweatherguy · #64 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:22 am

bucman1 wrote:For what its worth, latest models continue to show shift east towars Panhandle-Tallahasee solution.

And the main reason for that is...The GFS is on drugs. :lol:

As long as the GFS is out of whack, I wouldn't trust it or any other model that has it's run based off the GFS forecasted environment.

HurricaneHunter914 · #65 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:22 am

miamicanes177 wrote:Seems like everytime recon goes in people say its falling apart and LLC is gone and we have an open wave...then BAM. Recon finds it has strengthened and the pressure continues falling.

Its because this time, Ernesto has really kinda lost his LLC.

Jam151 · #66 Postby **Jam151** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:23 am

skysummit wrote:The 12z GFS has really weakened the ridge and put Ernesto all the way to the Keys.

12z GFS @ 90 hours:

it also has it as a 1010mb low...

Website · #67 Postby **Brent** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:23 am

jason0509 wrote:Is Ernesto opening up into a tropical wave? LOL

Yes. Storm cancel.

#68 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:24 am

Ernesto looks very sick right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Noles2006 · #69 Postby **Noles2006** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:24 am

EWG... don't be so quick to discount it. Remember Chris? Everyone discounted those models that showed it weakening because Chris looked like he was on his way to being a Hurricane... and then... ::poof::

#70 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:24 am

New GFS 12Z even farther east.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

miamicanes177 · #71 Postby **miamicanes177** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:24 am

Brent wrote:
jason0509 wrote:Is Ernesto opening up into a tropical wave? LOL

Yes. Storm cancel.

yep we have an open wave, no LLC, so cat 5 hitting NOLA cancel :lol:

Noles2006 · #72 Postby **Noles2006** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:25 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:
miamicanes177 wrote:Seems like everytime recon goes in people say its falling apart and LLC is gone and we have an open wave...then BAM. Recon finds it has strengthened and the pressure continues falling.

Its because this time, Ernesto has really kinda lost his LLC.

Are you sure about this?....

Jam151 · #73 Postby **Jam151** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:25 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:New GFS 12Z even farther east.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

but it has it at 1010mb...

#74 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:25 am

Dallasis2hot wrote:
wxman57 wrote: I see nothing there in the way of a rotation. Perhaps a road weak circulation indicated by the yellow ring, but that could just be an illusion.

The appearance on satellite is very much like Debby of 2000 when it lost its LLC.

Air Force Met wrote:There is a now blow up of convection right where the LLC is...clearly visible on the GHCC loop

Back to back conflicting messages from the top two most respected posters. Gotta love it!

This is not even a conflict...look at the LOOP! It is OBVIOUS where it is and its getting a new round of convection to boot.

OK....untill you look at the LOOP class...no comments on whether or not you think it has lost its LLC (unless you are on dial-up...then I just feel sorry for you).

LOOP!

JTD · #75 Postby **JTD** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:25 am

miamicanes177 wrote:
Brent wrote:
jason0509 wrote:Is Ernesto opening up into a tropical wave? LOL

Yes. Storm cancel.
yep we have an open wave, no LLC, so cat 5 hitting NOLA cancel

Downgrade to a T.D. at 5?

conestogo_flood · #76 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:25 am

We are adding a page every 6 minutes now, can we overload the server at this rate?

kjun · #77 Postby **kjun** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:25 am

Those trying to put Ernie to death, good try, but it's not going to happen. It may be going through a reorganization cycle. We will have to see with Recon finds.

cheezyWXguy · #78 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:25 am

Well it looks like convection just blew up right over or right next to the NHC's advisry position...If its not hard to tell because of the new blow-up, it is because of all that cirrus coming off of the mass of convection

Extremeweatherguy · #79 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:25 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:
miamicanes177 wrote:Seems like everytime recon goes in people say its falling apart and LLC is gone and we have an open wave...then BAM. Recon finds it has strengthened and the pressure continues falling.

Its because this time, Ernesto has really kinda lost his LLC.

that is according to one met and has not been confirmed by the NHC. The chance that a 997mb low just instantly opened up and died is low. Wait until Recon get's out there before saying it has lost it's LLC.

Website · #80 Postby **Brent** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:26 am

kjun wrote:Those trying to put Ernie to death, good try, but it's not going to happen. It may be going through a reorganization cycle. We will have to see with Recon finds.

Exactly. I remember a lot of people saying the same thing yesterday.

T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

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