Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[tailgater]

Emmet Brown, the mountains of Cuba are much lower than Haiti's. In addition, it is highly unlikely Ernesto will go over eastern Cuba, where the mountains are.

Why is it highly unlikely.

Hurricane tend to move around mountainous areas. Take Ivan and Dennis for example. In addition, it is expected to curve back towards the WNW.

I don't think they moved around mountainous areas, and it all depends on the steering currents.

[rnbaida]

ernesto will die off into a TS when i rolls into cuba and then hit FL as as a strong cat1.... Just think about it...Cuba will kill this thing

[HollynLA]

Just woke up to see the DRAMATIC shift in the forecast track. IF this holds, we can only hope Ernie will spend enough time over Cuba to weaken him so that he doesn't have much punch left when he makes it to FL.

This is amazing! I do realize we are still 5 days out and we can see some more shifts but this storm has had everyone from TX to the keys on edge this weekend, like it's taking turns giving each a good scare.

[johngaltfla]

ernesto will die off into a TS when i rolls into cuba and then hit FL as as a strong cat1.... Just think about it...Cuba will kill this thing

Cuba didn't kill Dennis or Charley. Don't get wishful....

[NONAME]

Unless is stays over Cuba for a Day it won't kill it.

[GTStorm]

Is it just me or does Ernesto look strange this morning. He has 2 convective balls that seem somewhat attached to each other and on satellite it almost looks like the front ball is counter clockwise as normal the the back convective ball almost looks to be starting a clockwise rotation? I think Ernesto has doubled himself overnight into 2 Ernesto's kind of.

Ernesto may be the ugliest category-one-but-could-be-a-major-threat-hurricane I've seen.

[rnbaida]

itas moving at 9mph....right now. Trust me it will die off.

[TampaFl]

[HURAKAN]

About Eastern Cuba, the best hurricane to ask how conditions are, geographically speaking, is Hurricane Flora that spent a few days over the island and came as a 3 and left as a 1.

[storms in NC]

this is out of Morehead City on what they think for us here on the EC

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...EXTENDED TRENDS IN THE
MODELS REMAIN THE SAME AS PAST FEW DAYS WITH UPPER RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN ALLOWING COLDFRONT TO DIVE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY AND
REMAINING STATIONARY IN THE AREA THRU THURSDAY. GFS WANTS TO BRING
REMAINS OF ERNESTO UP THE CAROLINA COAST...BUT VARIES GREATLY FROM
NHC/TPC TRACK AND WILL DISCOUNT AT THIS TIME. STILL MID TO LATE
WEEK LOOKS RATHER WET GIVEN STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DEEP MOISTURE.
WILL HAVE HI CHC POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT THIS TIME.

[tailgater]

ernesto will die off into a TS when i rolls into cuba and then hit FL as as a strong cat1.... Just think about it...Cuba will kill this thing

Cuba didn't kill Dennis or Charley. Don't get wishful....

If this is a Hurricane it is barely and if he spends much time over land he will weaken. So I don't think HE is being wishful.IMHO

[Scorpion]

ernesto will die off into a TS when i rolls into cuba and then hit FL as as a strong cat1.... Just think about it...Cuba will kill this thing

Cuba didn't kill Dennis or Charley. Don't get wishful....

If this is a Hurricane it is barely and if he spends much time over land he will weaken. So I don't think HE is being wishful.IMHO

Actually, the less defined the inner core is when it makes landfall means it will be easier to rebuild once it leaves Cuba. Not only that, Ernesto will likely be on a strengthening trend when landfall Cuba.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Good post Hurakan:

Do you have the setup for that storm? I can see that track except with a NW movement up the coast rather than out to sea.

[rnbaida]

where is the 8am advisory???

[NONAME]

I am positive that cuba will not kill Ernesto but weaken is slightly.

[Steve H.]

I would listen to Mr. Stewart. He is excellent in this range, I wouldn't be surprised however, that Ernesto could take a more NW route, but right now my bet is on Stacey.

[Downdraft]

itas moving at 9mph....right now. Trust me it will die off.

Statements like that show how much you have yet to learn. No offense but the list of people in here this year that have eaten crow is quite long are you that hungry?

[rnbaida]

tell me why it wont die off? if it goes over the mountains, is it going to strengthen? you are making no sense!

[tailgater]

ernesto will die off into a TS when i rolls into cuba and then hit FL as as a strong cat1.... Just think about it...Cuba will kill this thing

Cuba didn't kill Dennis or Charley. Don't get wishful....

If this is a Hurricane it is barely and if he spends much time over land he will weaken. So I don't think HE is being wishful.IMHO

Actually, the less defined the inner core is when it makes landfall means it will be easier to rebuild once it leaves Cuba. Not only that, Ernesto will likely be on a strengthening trend when landfall Cuba.

I respectfully disagree.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I would listen to Mr. Stewart. He is excellent in this range, I wouldn't be surprised however, that Ernesto could take a more NW route, but right now my bet is on Stacey.

I have to agree, all the contrarians come out when the forecast jumps. But the NHC is prperly adjusting based on the setup changing. Stewart's forecast also takes into account the variables that will affect the next forecast. They don't like making large track shifts and don't do it without a LOT of data. I would not expect to see the track "wagging" all over the place from this point.