TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

[storms in NC]

Like I said it will come in between SC and NC border

How do you know that?

Gut feel, Quija board, Crystal Ball, Tarot Cards....

NO! by the forcast track. With the high to the east and the front to the west it will go NW then N then NE and might stall there off the Va coast. When they call for SC it almost always go into the SCand NC border

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGHOUT BUT
THE MID LEVELS WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT SHOWING APPRECIABLE MOISTURE
INCREASE UNTIL TUE EVE. THIS WILL TEND TO LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY
FCST. A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER THICKNESSES...JUST SHY OF 580DAM...WILL
SURGE UP EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TOMORROW BRINGING A HOT
AFTERNOON. MID 90S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART AWAY FROM THE COAST.
A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING...BETTER CHANCES NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOESNT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES HOWEVER AND PW VALUES WILL BE PUSHED OVER 2
INCHES. MORE WIDESPREAD TSRA EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHER AVAIL
MOISTURE...WEAK MIDLVL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW...AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET SPREADING ACRS UPSTATE CAROLINAS.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FROM THURSDAY AND BEYOND DUE TO THE
OBVIOUS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ERNESTO. IN FACT...THE FCST DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH MORE CERTAINTY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY SINCE THE STORMS
ONGOING INTERACTION WITH LAND IS SUCH AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST. AS OF THIS WRITING THE TRACK TAKES THE
CENTER QUITE CLOSE TO THE CAPE FEAR COAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT/PREDAWN FRIDAY.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
224 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST MOVES OUR
WAY. TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE
INCREASING DURING THIS TIME. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER. POPS
INCREASE TO 50 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE MIDDLE SECTION OF THE STATE AND BRING THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY WITH
THE FRONT HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA AND MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF ERNESTO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...EVERYTHING HINGES ON
THE PATH OF ERNESTO. LATEST TRACK FROM TPC HAS ERNESTO TRACKING
ALONG THE COAST AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WHERE IT SLOWS
CONSIDERABLY JUST EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES. THIS IS DUE TO A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND WHICH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST. CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE HPC SOLUTION IN
THE EXTENDED.

&&

[Normandy]

What woorries me is how Ernesto's radar signature is improving despite it being sill over Cuba.

[Sanibel]

Always watch storms that deepen while over land.

[cpdaman]

WE are LUCKY this is not 50 miles northeast i can't belevie how this thing is getting better organized INLAND it is inland by 15 miles and the coast runs NW so unless this thing turns more north north west it will be over land for hours

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[skufful]

"NO! by the forcast track. With the high to the east and the front to the west it will go NW then N then NE and might stall there off the Va coast. When they call for SC it almost always go into the SCand NC border"

I would agree, the track is almost always north of the NHC's proposed track, but I hardly think you can be that precise.

[gtsmith]

The radar down there over the last hour shows almost a due west track...any body else see this?

[ronjon]

Here are the latest "credible" model plots. I removed the BAMs and the extrapolated track. There are no credible models forecasting a west coast of FL landfall. Consensus is improving for a track along the east coast of FL then into the Carolinas.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto55.gif

Here's a plot of a couple of pretty good consensus models, the ones the NHC has been mentioning in their discussions (CONU, CGUN):

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto56.gif

wxman57, no UKMET? Hard to tell, but the 18Z GFS looked west of the AVN shown on your graphic.

[cpdaman]

yes the storm has been moving on a WNW heading for the past couple hours it has been parralleling the coast for a couple hours it has been 15 miles from the coast for a few hours now and the coast runs more north west so this should save up from rapid intensification as long as this thing stays inland which from the cuban radar shows pretty clearly it will for a few more hours maybe as much as 6-8. unless something moves this north

fyi it has about 2.5 degrees longitude to move west to hit east coastal florida and about 4.5-5 degrees north to hit miami to west palm

which is a NNW heading

otherwise this baby could hit the keys and sw florida

[Buck]

Wow... its definitely deepening and still on land (it appears). I'm impressed.

[gtsmith]

perhaps it's just me, but this looks more due west over the last hour...watch the center:
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[storms in NC]

Always watch storms that deepen while over land.

What do you mean by this Sanibel?

[TampaFl]

The bear is trying to get out of its land cage. In when it doe's so this thing will likely go. So I would take this seriously. I agree with SouthFloridawx. Keep a eye on that ridge.

Notice the high over S.Ga. This has been sitting here for the last 36 - 48 hours. This is forecast to move to the ese & pull Ernesto northward in about 36 hours. IMHO, I think it will not move out as quick & Ernesto may, and I say may, could continue moving nw longer & possibley turning north along the southwest coast as some of the newer models are showing. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Normandy]

perhaps it's just me, but this looks more due west over the last hour...watch the center:
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Be careful trying to determine motion when u dont know where the EXACT center is....the radar has good banding signature but the precise center is not know....and even still....As I watch the loop I still see wnw.

[gtsmith]

so...incorrect assumption on my part to think that dry hole in the middle of the rain is not the center?

[cpdaman]

tampa this is becoming quite a posibility

it only has about 2.5 degrees west to go and 4.5-5 degrees north latitude to climb to get to the miami - wbp area but that would be on a NNW heading from it's current position

it appears this thing may stay over cuba a little longer but also go through the mid keys as it could effect SW florida heading nw or more likely NNW by the time it reaches that latitude

[Stratosphere747]

It has been quite a few hours since the NHC has been confident in the actual center. Until you see a VDM from recon, anything is nothing but a guess right now.

[Normandy]

so...incorrect assumption on my part to think that dry hole in the middle of the rain is not the center?

No I think that is the center but its hard to tell the motion of it. If anything it looks more stationary then moving due westward...but i still think its heading NW.

[HURAKAN]

ERNESTO IS POPPING.

[TampaFl]

tampa this is becoming quite a posibility

it only has about 2.5 degrees west to go and 4.5-5 degrees north latitude to climb to get to the miami - wbp area but that would be on a NNW heading from it's current position

it appears this thing may stay over cuba a little longer but also go through the mid keys as it could effect SW florida heading nw or more likely NNW by the time it reaches that latitude

Yes at least from some others posting about the Cuban radar that Ernesto appears to be moving more wnw than nw. With the slight shift of the models west this afternoon, the 11pm forecast will be interesting.

[fci]

Like I said it will come in between SC and NC border

How do you know that?

Gut feel, Quija board, Crystal Ball, Tarot Cards....

NO! by the forcast track.
&&

Thanks.

I just tire of seeing blind statements with no support shown at all.
You showed why and I respect your opinion.