Invest 99L,Central Caribbean,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Kennethb]

Could have to compete with the wave to its east.

[Aquawind]

Luis it looks to be heading right for you, lets hope it doesn't get too strong...

looks like it is moving WSW am I wrong?

I think it's westward. The convection might be doing that but the LL circulation seems pretty much west..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html

Doh.. Sorry, I didn't even load the lat and lon lines. You guys are right it is WSW clearly..

[AJC3]

Could have to compete with the wave to its east.

MHO - don't think so, at least not in the short term - it's moving too fast.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on August 31, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

An area of low pressure located about 600 miles east of the
Leeward Islands is moving westward. The associated shower
activity is poorly organized and significant development is not
expected at this time.

[boca]

If this system 600 miles away from the Leewards can keep itself together because its about to travel in very dry air and make to the islands well have a player.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[tailgater]

This little Low has been right smack in the middle of alot of dry for the last 3 days( if not more). Models weaken it over the next couple of days though, probably our buddy shear.

[SouthFloridawx]

Actually there is fairly low shear in the vicinity. (5-10KTS)
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

I'm thinkin that as this moves west with the Upper Level low to the west of it. The ULL should help enhance convection.

EDIT above windshear speed.

[ROCK]

This little Low has been right smack in the middle of alot of dry for the last 3 days( if not more). Models weaken it over the next couple of days though, probably our buddy shear.

actually the shear tendency is decreasing around this low. Lack of moisture it whats holding this little guy back...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Wanted to point out on this MET-8 view that it looks like this low is tapping into the ITCZ for what little moisture it has had over the past few days. Notice how the southern most tail of clouds swings down and seems to feed up moisture into the COC. Probably did not explain that correctly but just the way it looks to me, as I have watched it over the past few nights.....


http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls

[HURAKAN]

Florence and Gordon in the making.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah the little one is having a nice blow up of convection.

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z GFS keeps it as a low in 36 Hours in the Caribbean.

[ROCK]

well thats a start for the little guy anyway. If it makes it that far (past the islands) it might have a better time in the carib than fighting all that dry air. I say that but right now the carib is not that moist either.....


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

[Meso]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010929
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006


A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR

[HurricaneHunter914]

They've changed the wording to "Slow to occur" different from "Development not Anticipated". This will get interesting over the next few days if this low can persist through the shear.

[drezee]

I have been watching this one for a while:
Buoy has west winds and had a pressure of 29.85

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040


Buoy to the west showing N winds

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 19N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 50W-56W.



8 AM Discussion.

[Josephine96]

Needs some more convection I'm assuming, if it has a well defined LLC

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

So, let's say this can hold together into the Carribean. Will this poor little guy suffer the safe fate as Ernesto by having to traverse Hispanola & Cuba too? Or is it lining up to be a more weastward mover? -or a fish storm?

And what abotu the fate of his big sister behind him?

[tailgater]

from TAFB
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Looks like they think(this one) the first one, the wave in the shown here to be a wave over the central Caribbean to move west like the 2 systems behind it that they show with lows with them. Really starting to heat up for Labor day.

[tailgater]

11:00 am TWO
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.