TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

UpTheCreek · #61 Postby **UpTheCreek** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:33 am

Nope, no regular school closings as yet......I'll bet they'll be coming.

http://www.wcti12.com/Closings.htm

#62 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:33 am

UpTheCreek wrote:Nope, no regular school closings as yet......I'll bet they'll be coming.

http://www.wcti12.com/Closings.htm

perhaps they will be too late....

#63 Postby **fwbbreeze** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:35 am

fci wrote:
MyrtleBeachGal wrote:There's going to be some upset tourists sitting in the dark in their hotel rooms tonight with a hurricane pounding on their doors and no flashlights or bottled water. Red Cross hasn't opened any centers here and I'm not sure if the governor has to to that, or if hurricane warnings is their guideline for opening.,,,

I'm getting so frustrated!!

Oh, don't fret.

They issued a "Hurricane Watch" for you.
Which means ABSOLUTLEY NOTHING!!!!!

Hey, Ernesto is past me but I am so frustrated when there appears to be a breakdown in logic by the usually incredibly logical NHC!!!

I f we got a Hurricane Watch here a day in advance for a weakened system that was passing over the mountains of Cuba; then how can you not get one kept up for a deepening system passing over mostly warm swamp water in Florida??

It just confounds me.

Lets try and keep the NHC bashing to a minimum....please. :roll:

westmoon · #64 Postby **westmoon** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:35 am

That is one thing I will say about Florida, the goverment errors on the side of caution. Outter bands of this storm are already effecting the Carolina coast, It's not going to be fun for these people prepairing in the rain. :cry:

windnrain · #65 Postby **windnrain** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:35 am

Bud, good for you. That storm is looking more and more impressive by the minute... I believe, and this is completely amateur, but I believe that there will be rapid strengthening. Even the CHANCE for strengthening, for a strengthening system, should preclude schools from opening... this is common knowledge in Louisiana!

#66 Postby **terstorm1012** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:36 am

could we stop bashing the NHC? IMO they have done the best they can with a storm that has not cooperated with our models at all.

#67 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:37 am

the big convection on the SW side is just about ready to wrap around the center - then real intensfication gets under way.

This is the kind of strengthening we would have expected over the FL straits but didnt see it - now we are seeing it.

#68 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:37 am

Probably looking the best it has looked!!!

Yep looking good as a storm but bad for us.

I have no idea why they are not opening shelters.

#69 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:39 am

I am not bashing the NHC it is our gov here in NC they make the call for opening shelters. Not NHC

shaggy · #70 Postby **shaggy** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:39 am

it might be best for people to stay put for now trying to leave on such short notice could lead to people being stranded with nowhere to go.This is not going to be a big bad cane but a minimum one at best even if it hits 85mph those winds will be over a VERY small area and probably only over water

westmoon · #71 Postby **westmoon** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:40 am

terstorm1012,

I'm not looking at this as bashing the NHC they are making the best guesses that they can. This is about local goverment not acting on a what if. Look at what Florida did with the Keys, we were not even sure if it was going to hit and they had evecuated the tourists long before the storm made it to Cuba.

stormtruth · #72 Postby **stormtruth** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:40 am

terstorm1012 wrote:could we stop bashing the NHC? IMO they have done the best they can with a storm that has not cooperated with our models at all.

I think the NHC can take it. Besides they deserve some criticism for not issuing a hurricane warning.

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #73 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:41 am

I can't believe schools isn't out!

Anyways, Ernesto is much better looking now than it was as it approached Florida.

Full of surprises this storm is.

#74 Postby **seahawkjd** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:42 am

Well in defense of local governments, the keys are a special situation where if you don't get people out long before things get rough you're not going to. Still, it seems ridiculous to not put a warning in effect IMHO. Don't warnings also trigger things like evacuations in local governments so without a warning does that impead preperations at all?

#75 Postby **dgparent** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:43 am

Raleigh radar

Sanibel · #76 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:44 am

Ernesto looking good with thick convection - but does it have anything to it?

DESTRUCTION5 · #77 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:47 am

Sanibel wrote:Ernesto looking good with thick convection - but does it have anything to it?

This storm is one of the strangest i have ever tracked....Its Scared of ripe conditions or something!

#78 Postby **fci** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:47 am

tolakram wrote:I don't agree with the 'irresponsability'.

If hurricane watches stayed in effect and this thing hit as a tropical storm then wolf is cried. If this thing is supposed to be a tropical storm and it hits as a minimal hurricane then people might begin to better understand how hard it is to forcast these things and pay better attention.

Both situations are not ideal, but which one will keep people paying attention?

I think us amateurs need to back off and observe the scientific and political (if you will) ramifications of hurricane forcasting. It's a lose lose situation made worse by uninformed people second guessing the professionals.

(fci climbs on soapbox an apologizes in advance if he gets rude or crosses the "policial correctness line)

OK.
Better to "cry wolf" then to have people who live in trailers not know in advance to get out.
Better than to have kids stuck in school when a storm hits
Better than to have people driving home from work in the middle of a storm.

Why is crying wolf OK in South Florida and not in NC/SC?

I don't think that "If this thing is supposed to be a tropical storm and it hits as a minimal hurricane then people might begin to better understand how hard it is to forcast these things and pay better attention." makes sense!!

Oh goody, now people understand that it is hard to forecast!
Whoopie, they learn the hard way.

The NHC CAN get second guessed by amatuers when they blow it!!
They are paid by the "uninformed people" (as you refer to them) as Government Employees.

Bottom line is that they erred on the side of caution down here in South Florida and ticked off a lot of people who lost money by missing work and putting up shutters and closing schools. Yeah, an inconvenience but better safe then sorry.

Now they do just the opposite.
Let people get "off guard" and possibly be caught by a storm unexpectedly.

Put those two scenarios on the scale and see if they balance.
I think not!!!

THIS STORM WAS BOTCHED BY THE NHC FROM START TO FINISH.

Let's call a spade a spade here and admit it.

They are the best at what they do and they will be wrong sometimes.
It is a fact and easily acceptable.
However, this time they; IN MY OPINION; handled it poorly.
Error on the side of safety is what they MUST do.

(fci trips while getting off of soapbox).....

UpTheCreek · #79 Postby **UpTheCreek** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:50 am

Yeah, what he said! 8-)

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #80 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:50 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg
Latest Floater..

He looks organized. And he may make it to a strong TS or maybe a weak cane.

If he had another 24 hours over water it would not have been good for the Eastern Seaboard.[/url]

TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

Who is online