TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

[Evil Jeremy]

wobble time!

[gatorcane]

well folks another center reformation is underway. The center that the NHC pegged 2 hours ago is now dissipating.....

The question is now what happens? Does the center form in the SW blob or in the NE blob?

I feel for those guys at the NHC - these storms are not easy

[gatorcane]

or perhaps the center is moving more north to get closer to all the convection...?

[wxman57]

last question WXMAN (i know you are very busy) NHC says

" THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE. THIS COULD IMPART
MORE OF A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS INDICATED
BY THE GFDL MODEL.

i noticed the nhc said could not shoud (whether i am reading into things too much or not) do u see the ULL as much of a steering influence and if so do u see it as causing a more northerly temp tack or basically what is your take on the ULL as a steering infuence (a moot point?)

The assumption by the NHC is that Florence continues to organize. If shearing continues, then a more westward track is likely. That's what I have in my forecast - more westward first few days then a gradual NW turn. A stronger storm, initially, might be steered more to the WNW-NW by the upper low. But Florence doesn't qualify as a stronger storm.

[Damar91]

Right now....Florence is a mess.

[cpdaman]

i have the highest respect for the NHC but could any one tell me why in there 11 am discussion concerning the location of center that they say

"AND I AM PLACING THE OVERALL SYSTEM CENTER ONLY A LITTLE BIT NORTHWEST OF THE CLOUD SWIRL

i would think the swirl is either the center or it is so poorly organized that they can't find one( and thus it isn't a tropical storm) i know they are smarter than me but i don't get it

[skysummit]

Of course the "naked vortex" is the center. Its being sheared from the SW. How can anyone possibly think anything else

...and THIS is why one could possibly think something else. That "naked vortex" which was once the proposed center is breaking down. Devleoping systems, especially one as unorganized as this one, will relocate its center many times. If you would take the time to realize this and not be so rude, you might learn something.

[gatorcane]

i have the highest respect for the NHC but could any one tell me why in there 11 am discussion concerning the location of center that they say

"AND I AM PLACING THE OVERALL SYSTEM CENTER ONLY A LITTLE BIT NORTHWEST OF THE CLOUD SWIRL

i would think the swirl is either the center or it is so poorly organized that they can't find one( and thus it isn't a tropical storm) i know they are smarter than me but i don't get it

I disagreed with them upgrading it yesterday. I don't think it deserved it. Now it barely deserves it.

[gatorcane]

Question:

How come the ULL off the NW can move SW but Florence moves WNW? What is the synoptic reasoning behind that?

[storms in NC]

JIOM This is why I think it might miss the troff. But it could pick it up on the tail end.

Have to leave for work later on this

[skysummit]

JIOM This is why I think it might miss the troff. But it could pick it up on the tail end.

[img=http://img363.imageshack.us/img363/4082/huvsfr5.th.jpg]

NC...you're using the incorrect url or something. Just copy the direct link and place [img][/img] around it.

[Bailey1777]

Goog question Gator I was wondering the same thing. Any takers?

[cpdaman]

guys it seems ull and llc move in different directions all the time

wouldn't this mean the steering flow at higher and lower levels is diffent

ULL sterred by Upper level flow

weak flo steered by low level flow

[Bailey1777]

Yes but as a system becomes a hurricane it reaches these same higher flows, so why are they steered differently than ULL's?

[gatorcane]

But with Ernesto, the TUTT low was moving WNW and Ernesto was following right in its tracks...but due to center reformations and shear it when NW.

[Meso]

The 12z Gfs model has it further west than previous run
12z GFS at 168 hours

[Epsilon_Fan]

yikes, it looks bad today... the center has suddenly wobbled in the direction of the deep convection

[SouthFloridawx]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

The center does seem to be wobbling quite a bit today. It looks like a northeast wobble a little back towards the 50 Line. Most likely the large circulation will generally move WNW today.

[Damar91]

Ok, I know I'm going to regret saying this, but here goes. After looking at the trough currently over the east coast, the direction and lack of real organization with Florence, I am going to say that she will miss the trough altogether. Now, what happens after that, I would not hazard to guess.

[ConvergenceZone]

Since it seems like this Florence may not the juice to make it and may get sheared apart(The Story of 2006), I'm wondering what the chances are of us going through September is and not seeing any hurricanes?? No other Strong waves on the horizon at the moment, just a couple of weak ones..... Wouldn't that be something? September without a hurricane...Since it's 2006, it could happen!!!