Tropical Depression Lane in EPAC=Last Advisory Written

[AussieMark]

yeah 120 kts I read.

I didn't think the track changed that much since I went to bed my bad

[Jim Cantore]

This is about to blow I think, look at IR, Reminds me a bit of Wilma.

I say 140-150mph

compare

[Brent]

WOW.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 160239
TCMEP3
HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE
MEXICAN MAINLAND SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO
CABO CORRIENTES.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND FROM EL ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA
ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 106.8W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 9 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 120SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 106.8W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 23.0N 107.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.6N 107.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.3N 108.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.2N 108.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 26.5N 108.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 27.7N 108.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 29.2N 107.7W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 106.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

[mtm4319]

This is about to blow I think, look at IR, Reminds me a bit of Wilma.

I say 140-150mph

compare

Here's the full version of the pic... not quite Wilma's pinhole eye, but it definitely looks like an eye is forming.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ33 KNHC 160301
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006

...HURRICANE LANE HAMMERING ISLA MARIAS...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE
MEXICAN MAINLAND SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO
CABO CORRIENTES.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND FROM EL ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA
ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES
...185 KM...NORTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 215 MILES
...345 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EYE OF HURRICANE
LANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES LANE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LANE IS EXPECTED BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
LANE.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...FROM COLIMA TO PUERTO VALLARTA
AND CULIACAN...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...21.7 N...106.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not quite the deep convection around the eye. But not to far. I say 20 to 25 knots every 6 hours now intill intill the next EWRC.

Now 90-95 knots....
6 105 knots
12 120 knots
24 130 knots

This thing looks like its going to go wild. We will see.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

When is the recon?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Some of the warmest water 85-88 plus is in the southern Gulf of Californina. So yes you would think a Wilma could form. Just thinking if this can fellow it up.

[cycloneye]

When is the recon?

NOUS42 KNHC 151530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT FRI 15 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-108

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM LANE
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0213E LANE
C. 16/1315Z
D. 22.9N 108.4W
E. 16/1700Z TO 16/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 71

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX LANE AT 17/1800Z
NEAR 24.6N 109.0W.
JWP

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow the ring is now all the way around the eye. If that clears out then watch out...

[Scorpion]

Damn this really ramped up. I thought Cat 1-2 at best.

[Jim Cantore]

I like my Crow deep fried.

[Normandy]

I seriously pray for anyone that is in this hurricanes way, because there is going to be devastation.

Is recond schedules to investigate this? It looks like a Cat3 easy

[Dave C]

Radar out of Guasave showing storm with double-eyewall feature
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/radares.html
click on las cabos to view storm

[AussieMark]

if it was a double eyewall that would indicate a ERC would be starting soon

it would be over land before that I assume tho

[cycloneye]

WTPZ33 KNHC 161147
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE GETTING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA
ON THE EAST COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO CABO CORRIENTES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
75 KM...WEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM
...EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL....FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE LANE.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA ALONG THE TRACK OF LANE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
TO 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...23.1 N...107.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Look at that small tight eye at the radar.

[WmE]

Look at the new IR pic. The eye is clearing out.

[TampaFl]

Cycloneye, the radar of Lane reminds me of hurricane Charley, very small & compact eye.

Hurricane Charley:
http://www.grlevelx.com/grlevel3/ktbw248.png


Hurricane Lane:
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-cabo.jpg