More Cape Verde developments or it's over?

TheShrimper · #61 Postby **TheShrimper** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:39 pm

Sorry, NW of the wave.

Zardoz · #62 Postby **Zardoz** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:02 pm

TheShrimper wrote:Looks like there will be a shearing mechanism, northeast of the waves dropping down east of Helene to the Cape Verdes. Very pronounced at this point in time.

Sorry, NW of the wave.

Yes, it's obliterating the wave that went north right now. Must be pretty strong. If it hits this system it could be lights out, and we wait for the next one.

Perhaps the model saw this coming?

Sanibel · #63 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:02 pm

Now the waves east of the little disturbance have re-convected.

Most likely the next hurricane.

#64 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:06 pm

pro-met here please?

#65 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:42 pm

no mention again in the TWO

Zardoz · #66 Postby **Zardoz** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:05 am

The shearing winds seem to be moving off with Helene, and our system appears to be gathering itself:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-rb.html

#67 Postby **O Town** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:34 am

Looking good this a.m.

#68 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:04 am

Yet,another upper low is parked in the Eastern Atlantic so unless it moves away soon,for now it will not let anything develop in that part of the basin.

#69 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:23 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

less convection than earlier. how long untill invest?

#70 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:26 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-wv-loop.html

less convection than earlier. how long untill invest?

As I said in my post,if the upper low stays parked where it is,nothing will develop in the Eastern Atlantic.But if it moves away and the ridge builds than things can turn mote favorable.

#71 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:41 pm

What causing all the ULL in the Atlantic this year?

#72 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:52 pm

Blown_away wrote:What causing all the ULL in the Atlantic this year?

They are cut off lows from Upper Level Troughing.

#73 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 2:54 pm

That upper low looks like it's more strong now and the trough is dipping more southward.

colbroe · #74 Postby **colbroe** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 4:51 pm

The wave now leaving the cosat of Africa is the one i guess every one is speaking about, this wave looks very impressive , with a diameter from 18North to 5 north.A low latitude wave we will see what is does over the next few days .

Zardoz · #75 Postby **Zardoz** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:28 pm

Looks like it's getting sheared already:

Eumetsat

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-rb.html

Maybe the next one will get through...

TheShrimper · #76 Postby **TheShrimper** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:20 pm

Said that last night, that it did not look good for develorment. Adios.

jimvb · #77 Postby **jimvb** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:47 pm

The 2006 Sep 18 18Z GFS run does indeed show this storm coming off the African coast (Isaac?). It shows it developing into a hurricane or something, following Helene, and then another one comes along (Joyce?) after it.

But did you also note at the end of the GFS run, that a storm hops off Central America into the Caribbean and goes northward? Is this Kirk? At 384 hours, Isaac, Joyce, and Kirk form an isoceles, nearly equilateral triangle, with Helene way off in the upper right corner. The GFS can be way off this many days in advance, but this is the second straight run that this storm has formed. Is the Caribbean apparition another Ernesto?

We need to keep watching the Atlantic and associated waters - it has turned into a hurricane machine.

#78 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 7:28 pm

00:00z Full Disk Water Vapor Image

:uarrow:

It's clearly seen at the water vapor image that a major upper trough is parked in the Eastern Atlantic and has dipped into the deep tropics latituds.The upper low seen there is cuttoff meaning it will not move much in the comming days.In order to have anything going ahead and develop,that trough has to go but in the near term nothing will occur in that part of the basin as long that upper low with the trough hangs on.

Zardoz · #79 Postby **Zardoz** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:50 pm

TheShrimper wrote:...Adios.

cycloneye wrote:...major upper trough is parked in the Eastern Atlantic and has dipped into the deep tropics latitudes...

Good grief, has it come all the way down to 5N? That'll just shut the gate on anything:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-wv.html

#80 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:00:00z Full Disk Water Vapor Image

It's clearly seen at the water vapor image that a major upper trough is parked in the Eastern Atlantic and has dipped into the deep tropics latituds.The upper low seen there is cuttoff meaning it will not move much in the comming days.In order to have anything going ahead and develop,that trough has to go but in the near term nothing will occur in that part of the basin as long that upper low with the trough hangs on.

yet another ULL ruining any chances for development - I say the Cape Verde door is closing

More Cape Verde developments or it's over?

TROPICAL WAVE NOW EXISITING AFRICA

All the way to Kirk?

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