Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Scorpion

#61 Postby Scorpion » Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:40 pm

Looking good this afternoon. Should be a hurricane shortly.
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#62 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:47 pm

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#63 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:49 pm

It looks like an eye is trying to form
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#64 Postby sfwx » Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:56 pm

From the NWS "Major League" office in Melbourne, FL :)

2:10 p.m. 9-15-06

THE LATEST GFS HANDLES SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIFFERENTLY ON TUE/WED. PREVIOUSLY IT WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT NOW IS DROPPING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS IS MORE INLINE WITH THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF.

THE LATEST RUN SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO HANG UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA THU/FRI...BUT THE BOUNDARY IS MUCH WEAKER AS FLAT RIDGING IS INDICATED ALOFT RATHER THAN AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE.
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#65 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:58 pm

Any reason the floater still isn't on Helene?
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#66 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:00 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Any reason the floater still isn't on Helene?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/avn-l.jpg

Here it is. :)
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#67 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:01 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Any reason the floater still isn't on Helene?


The Floater is on Helene!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float3.html
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#68 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:05 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:Any reason the floater still isn't on Helene?


The Floater is on Helene!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float3.html


You have to go through SSD's home page though. It should be on one of the floaters on the NHC page, instead of the "Remants of Florence".

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
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#69 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:28 pm

sfwx wrote:From the NWS "Major League" office in Melbourne, FL :)

2:10 p.m. 9-15-06

THE LATEST GFS HANDLES SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIFFERENTLY ON TUE/WED. PREVIOUSLY IT WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT NOW IS DROPPING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS IS MORE INLINE WITH THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF.

THE LATEST RUN SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO HANG UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA THU/FRI...BUT THE BOUNDARY IS MUCH WEAKER AS FLAT RIDGING IS INDICATED ALOFT RATHER THAN AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE.


Im seeing 2 different Camps Again with the models...

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png
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#70 Postby Damar91 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:31 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
sfwx wrote:From the NWS "Major League" office in Melbourne, FL :)

2:10 p.m. 9-15-06

THE LATEST GFS HANDLES SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIFFERENTLY ON TUE/WED. PREVIOUSLY IT WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT NOW IS DROPPING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS IS MORE INLINE WITH THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF.

THE LATEST RUN SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO HANG UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA THU/FRI...BUT THE BOUNDARY IS MUCH WEAKER AS FLAT RIDGING IS INDICATED ALOFT RATHER THAN AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE.


Im seeing 2 different Camps Again with the models...

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png


Yeah, even the Lbar. Wasn't that the one earlier that had it way North out to sea? Looks like the models might be having a harder time with this after 5 days.
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#71 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:03 pm

Image

The only question about Helenes track is if it will get close to Bermuda.
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#72 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:21 pm

I doubt it...

FISH!

At least if the forecast for a major verifies, it'll get our numbers up.
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#73 Postby trugunz » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:32 pm

Very Nice

Image
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#74 Postby curtadams » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:39 pm

Very hard to tell motion at this stage, but it now looks to be moving more N than W. Maybe the ultra-early recurve will happen after all.
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#75 Postby Zardoz » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:55 pm

Now it's getting serious about absorbing the blob that's been out to its east:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rb.html

More fuel for the fire?
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#76 Postby hial2 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 5:08 pm

curtadams wrote:Very hard to tell motion at this stage, but it now looks to be moving more N than W. Maybe the ultra-early recurve will happen after all.


This is funny!!...I've been looking at the vis loop and it seems to me that's moving more west than north..Maybe it IS like the NHC says and is moving WNW.... :lol:

EDITED for spelling
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#77 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 15, 2006 5:50 pm

Image

HELENE IS REQUESTING A CHANGE IN CATEGORY!!!
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#78 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 15, 2006 6:43 pm

I don't understand the NOGAPS. What is it showing that the GFS is not?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2006091512
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#79 Postby Scorpion » Fri Sep 15, 2006 6:46 pm

Oh wow, I didn't know the NOGAPS was that far west. Interesting.
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#80 Postby caneman » Fri Sep 15, 2006 6:48 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:I don't understand the NOGAPS. What is it showing that the GFS is not?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2006091512


From the 18z. Look at the West motion towards the end of run before heading back NW. Interesting.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
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