Invest 97L North of V.I,Puerto Rico,Models,Sats and Comments

#61 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:04 am

DOMINICA: Latest 9 AM (13) Sep 28 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NNW 8

Shows some West wind but we have to see if that persists or its just a common breeze.

#62 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:19 am

wxman57 wrote:Here's a mid-level flow streamline forecast for 15Z Saturday. Note the deep trof approaching the east U.S. Coast. The same flow pattern will persist through early next week. Such a pattern would make it just about impossible for anything to reach the Gulf of Mexico or the east U.S. Coast. I think that the chances of this system becoming a named storm are low, maybe 10-20%.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/joyce1.gif

If it can stay weak it would move farther west and then curve north later

right now it seems to be on a W to WSW heading.

#63 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:24 am

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFR.html

Guadeloupe observations show WNW light winds.

#64 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:27 am

is that a big TUTT low I see of to its west. I can't believe these TUTT lows are still around and its almost Oct? What's up with that? :grr:

MiamiensisWx · #65 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:31 am

Based on visible loops, it appears that the structure of 97L and mild low-level turning and divergence indicates a very weak LLC may exist roughly in the vicinity of 18.0N or 18.2N and 17.1W. Note the hints of low-level turning in that general vicinity. I agree with the consensus, though, that it's a weak LLC/potential weak developing low if it is present.

The structure of 97L, in addition, also supports a potential weak LLC forming somewhat in that general vicinity.

#66 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:33 am

Here's a sfc plot with visible satellite overlay. As you can see, winds near the disturbance are 10 kts or less. Just light and variable winds in the area. No LLC.

#67 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:33 am

anxiously awaiting the TWO. I wonder if they will indicate slow development is possible.

#68 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:34 am

Convection now decreasing.

#69 Postby **msbee** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:40 am

That is almost on top of us. Weather here is partly cloudy
latest weather onbservations f rom the airport are:

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 10 AM (14) Sep 28 87 (31) 73 (23) 30.00 (1016) E 12

#70 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:45 am

TWO taking extra long this morning :eek:

#71 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:46 am

gatorcane wrote:TWO taking extra long this morning

It's not even 11 AM yet.

#72 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:47 am

oh okay, jumping the gun :wink:

#73 Postby **hial2** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:54 am

cycloneye wrote: I filled the car with $20 at the pump.

20 dollars?? ONLY 20 dollars?? How cheap is the gasoline over there?? I'm seriously considering trading my SUV for a "Flinstone Mobile"..(I'm dating myself here)..

#74 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:55 am

830
NOUS42 KNHC 281500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 28 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-121

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 21.5N 68.0W AT 30/1800Z.

If necessary for saturday at 2 PM a plane may go.

#75 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:07 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281503
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM ISAAC... LOCATED ABOUT 665 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CENTERED ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED
THIS MORNING AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

#76 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:08 am

yep development is is possible!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

HUC · #77 Postby **HUC** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:08 am

In Guadeloupe(Basse-Terre),winds light,from NW,but it's more related to local sea breeze than a circulation.
Sky cloudy with high cirrus.I can clearly see in the north, cb clouds towwering .

#78 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:10 am

will the board get jumping again because of this?

DESTRUCTION5 · #79 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:12 am

gatorcane wrote:will the board get jumping again because of this?

No I don't think this will be anything...Just another Invest Bust

Dynamic · #80 Postby **Dynamic** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:14 am

gatorcane wrote:000
ABNT20 KNHC 281503
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBUDA??? IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BARBUDA??? Where is it?

Invest 97L North of V.I,Puerto Rico,Models,Sats and Comments

Who is online