GFS,NOGAPS,CMC,UKMET - Southwest Caribbean Development?

[cycloneye]

A 1008 MB
SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 10N81W...ALONG WITH THE ITCZ...IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

7:05 PM Discussion from TPC.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

Maybe the first glimpse?

[wxmann_91]

Looks like it will happen- according to the models. Hard to believe that it won't happen with ALL of the models that we typically look at show it. But I guess for some of the non-believers out there, it will take advisory number one for them to believe it- and me too! This season has been a non-producer, so I can understand the skepticism. But with 100% model agreement, it's only a matter of time.

At this point with the agreement of all the global models this has turned into=Not if,but when,how strong and where it will go.

Not so fast. Agreement between globals does not necessarily mean this event has a 100% chance of occurring. There's still an if factor for this.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like it will happen- according to the models. Hard to believe that it won't happen with ALL of the models that we typically look at show it. But I guess for some of the non-believers out there, it will take advisory number one for them to believe it- and me too! This season has been a non-producer, so I can understand the skepticism. But with 100% model agreement, it's only a matter of time.

At this point with the agreement of all the global models this has turned into=Not if,but when,how strong and where it will go.

Not so fast. Agreement between globals does not necessarily mean this event has a 100% chance of occurring. There's still an if factor for this.

I agree that it doesn't mean that thye are agreeing on the same situation occuring. It is possible that nothing comes out of this. Frankly with such strong shear in the forecast, even if something did move north it would only be a rain event and not much wind.

[Rainband]

It seems like Cuba, Hati, and Pr will have to watch this one.

Well Johnnathan,in terms of track it's very early to say for sure where it may go as there is anything right now.All we have are various scenarios from the global models but that is it.Until there is a well defined low pressure thinking about future tracks is early to do.

Well, we have a front coming down and thats why I said what I did. I agree it's early but I don't see this as a threat to the US imho.

[hurricanetrack]

It would be quite exciting to have something to track here in November. This year, especially, we tend to take each system as being on life support since few really made much of themselves. I guess I am rooting for this even more so than normal because of the news reports that someone at CPC stated the hurricane season was over. I don't like to see people get embarassed necessarily, but it would be very funny to have a hurricane in the Caribbean when the experts said just last week that the season was, for all intents and purposes, over. Since these are the same folks who told us that another blockbuster season is on the way for 2006, it would just be their luck to proclaim the season over several weeks early and then a hurricane forms and makes news headlines. Keep in mind I am not even suggesting that any potential development would affect the U.S., but even a weak hurricane or tropical storm for that matter could bring devastating rains to DR and PR- or even Jamaica. This is why the hurricane season runs until November 30- not sure how anyone could issue a news report that the season is over- not with that bold of a statement anyway. We'll see about that....

[Rainband]

I agree Hurricane Track. They shouldn't have made a statement like that.

[cycloneye]

00z NAM



As I said earlier,the NAM is the NAM,so for those who follow it here is the 00z run.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

96E GFDL shows a closed low in the SW Caribbean as well
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[hurricanetrack]

12Z ECMWF is on board too. That's a pretty heavy concensus that we could see a tropical cyclone develop in the SW Caribbean late this week. But I guess until it is actually there and advisories are being written about it, the nay-sayers will continue to nay say. But that's ok- most of the year they have been right. We'll see if that is the case this time around. That's what's so cool about all of this speculation (for or against)- we WILL know for sure whether or not this apparent cyclone gets going- that is a fact. The rest will take care of itself.

[cycloneye]

6z GFS



This run from GFS has it less strong than in past runs.

00z CMC



The 00z run of the Canadian model backs down on intensity but still shows the feature.

00z NOGAPS



The 00z NOGAPS is the most strong one of all the models.

00z UKMET



The 00z UKMET shows a weak feature in the SW Caribbean.

In summary,some of the models backed down on intensity except for the NOGAPS.Let's see what the 12z run from them will show.

[ronjon]

00Z GFS shows a strong tropical cyclone at 174 hrs - less than 1000 mb approaching Haiti.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174m.gif

[cycloneye]

6z NAM



I forgot to post this morning the 6z NAM that has a storm but it's the NAM.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If anything does form, it appears that it woudl be quickly caught up with the front and shunted off to the north and northeast very quickly. -probably taken over eastern cuba, the bahamas and then out to sea.

[cycloneye]

00Z GFS shows a strong tropical cyclone at 174 hrs - less than 1000 mb approaching Haiti.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174m.gif

However,the 6z GFS that I posted above your post backs down on intensity.

[HURAKAN]

If anything develops, it looks like it will be like an Odette-type storm.

[ronjon]

If anything does form, it appears that it woudl be quickly caught up with the front and shunted off to the north and northeast very quickly. -probably taken over eastern cuba, the bahamas and then out to sea.

Probably so TIFGal but the GFS has been alternating back and forth with a quick ejection to the NE or a turn back toward the NW south of Haiti. Stay tuned.

[ronjon]

Convection firing north of Panama this morning - appears to be a CC circulation. The seedling of tropical cyclone genesis for the models?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Blown Away]

ABNT20 KNHC 131603
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Still nothing per NHC...

[cycloneye]

12z NAM



12z NAM is a little more weaker than the 00z run.

12z GFS



The 12z GFS has a depression/storm type system that tracks northnortheastward towards Hispanola.

12z CMC



The Canadian model has a storm that tracks thru the NE corner of Nicaragua.

12z UKMET



The 12z UKMET has a very weak feature that is almost stationary.

12z NOGAPS



12z NOGAPS has the system more weak than in past runs from that model.

[cycloneye]

A COUPLE OF
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER
THIS REGION. SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AT THE END OF THE
WORK-WEEK.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

Above is the 1:05 PM EST discussion from TPC where they are mentioning the possible development of a low pressure per models by the end of this week.