Mozambique: Tropical Cyclone Favio (14S) Landfall

[Chacor]

JTWC has finally caught up: 125 kt, gusts to 150.

WTXS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 24.4S 40.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 40.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.7S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.0S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.0S 36.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.0S 35.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 39.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A
GREATER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CURRENTLY
HAS A SLIGHTLY CLOUD-FILLED 12-NM ROUND EYE. TC 14S CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AFRICA. A MIDLATITUDE 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH AFRICA AND IS NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE. THEREFORE, THIS RIDGE
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
EGRR, WHICH SHOWS A SHARP TURN NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 36. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC AIDS AND REFLECTS A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED DUE TO A WEAKENING RIDGE PRODUCED BY THE
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 24 THEN WILL
WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND
220300Z.//

[Crostorm]

Here is nice animation of last 24 hours of eye of Favio
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_08.html

[HURAKAN]

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FAVIO

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 940 HPA.
POSITION LE 21 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 23.8 SUD / 38.1 EST
(VINGT-TROIS DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE-HUIT DEGRES UN EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1780 KM A L'OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST A 16 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 21.3S/35.5E
DEPR. SUR TERRE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 17.7S/33.3E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

Weakening beginning to take place.

[Alacane2]

Could you give me the link for the Mozambique internet site? Thank you.

[Ptarmigan]

JTWC has finally caught up: 125 kt, gusts to 150.

WTXS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 24.4S 40.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 40.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.7S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.0S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.0S 36.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.0S 35.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 39.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A
GREATER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CURRENTLY
HAS A SLIGHTLY CLOUD-FILLED 12-NM ROUND EYE. TC 14S CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AFRICA. A MIDLATITUDE 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH AFRICA AND IS NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE. THEREFORE, THIS RIDGE
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
EGRR, WHICH SHOWS A SHARP TURN NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 36. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC AIDS AND REFLECTS A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED DUE TO A WEAKENING RIDGE PRODUCED BY THE
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 24 THEN WILL
WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND
220300Z.//

It is quite a strong hurricane.



Some of these South Indian cyclones can dump very heavy rain on Reunion Island, up to 75 inches in 24 hours!

[HURAKAN]

Could you give me the link for the Mozambique internet site? Thank you.

http://www.inam.gov.mz/

[Category 5]

Where do I get the satelitte images? SSD doesn't have them.

[wxmann_91]

Category 5,

CIMSS. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html
NRL: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Note that on recent images, it looks like it's strengthening as the ERC finishes.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree that it looks to be strengthing, maybe up to 105-110 knots at landfall by jtwc. This is kind of interesting.

[Chacor]

110kt about to make landfall.

[Cyclenall]

The cyclone has been looking a bit more symmetrical over the past few hours with a eye trying to clear out. Looks a lot more organized now then it did 5 hours ago.

[Chacor]

Mozambican authorities have put the country on the highest level of alert, as it waits for an approaching cyclone.

The cyclone, named Favio, is predicted to arrive on Wednesday with winds of up to 175km/h (109m/h).

Central and southern parts of the country are expected to be worst hit, particularly Sofala, Inhambane and Gaza provinces.

The country is already struggling to recover from recent heavy floods that forced 120,000 people from their homes.

Inhabitants of central and southern parts of the country have been warned and told that the army and Red Cross are on standby.

"We are warning people not to climb the trees and they must keep their doors and windows well closed," said Belarmino Chivambo, spokesperson for the Mozambique National Office for Natural Disasters Management.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6383675.stm

[Category 5]

Category 5,

CIMSS. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html
NRL: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Thanks

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING AS BEAUTIFUL AS EVER, UNFORTUNATELY!!!

[Chacor]

Back to 935 hPa just off the coast. Strong gusts to 135 kt expected.

WTIO21 FMEE 220549
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 22/02/2007 A 0600 UTC.
NUMERO: 041/09 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVIS D'OURAGAN
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 22/02/2007 A 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 9 (FAVIO) 935 HPA
POSITION: 22.3S / 35.7E
(VINGT-DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET TRENTE-CINQ DEGRES SEPT EST) A 0600 UTC
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 8 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE.

OURAGAN 65/95KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN DU
CENTRE.
TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN
AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN
AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR
DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 22/02/2007 A 18 UTC:
20.9S / 34.8E, VENT MAX = 65 KT, DEPR. SUR TERRE.
A 24H POUR LE 23/02/2007 A 06 UTC:
19.3S / 34.4E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, DEPR. SUR TERRE.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
FAVIO S'EST INTENSIFIE LEGEREMENT A L'APPROCHE DES COTES. C'EST UN PETIT
SYSTEME AVEC DES VENTS TRES VIOLENTS A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE (RAFALES
POSSIBLES A 135KT, SOIT 250 KM/H DANS LE MUR DE L'OEIL).
IL EST PREVU ATTERRIR DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES A PROXIMITE DE LA VILLE
DE VILANCULOS.
RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES ET VENTS VIOLENTS SUR LES PROVINCES D'INHAMBANE A
BEIRA.

[Chacor]

WE HAVE LANDFALL! Google Earth says that's Ilha Lunene.

NRL: 105KT/938 MB

[wxmann_91]

Radar image from Mozambique... sorry should've posted this earlier.
http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/BR.html

[P.K.]

Ah yes it does look like it clipped the land earlier. It is currently heading right along the edge of the coast. The Mozambique Met Office were warning of gusts to 230km/h yesterday, and looks like it may only be warning of gusts to 200km/h now despite the strengthening overnight.

[HURAKAN]

LANDFALL!!!

[Windspeed]

Favio's eye has made finally made its way inland. To have been so close to the coastline for so long, the core held together quite well before finally pushing inland.

I suspect there will be immense destruction throughout the Bazaruto Archipelago where the eyewall directly crossed over. The larger population center of Vilankulo (Vilanculos) may have missed the eywall just to the southwest, but with the maps I have it is too difficult to be sure. Unfortunately, the smaller resort Inhassoro looks like it was directly under the eye. I am not sure how spread out the population densities are around these two communities, but this could end up being a real tragedy if they were not evacuated.

Edit:

Some interesting background information on this region of the Inhambane province:

INHASSORO - villages: 10, population census (2004): 14,571
VILANKULO - villages: 49, population census (2004): 35,447

It is one of Mozambique's main beach resorts. The area was struck by Cyclone (Hurricane) Japhet in mid-March of 2003 with winds of 170km/h. This produced considerable damage to structures in Valankulo and to adjoining farmlands. According to the mayor, however, all the people work together here and much of the damage has already been repaired. The Bazanuto Archipelago lies about 10 miles off the coast. Located there is the Bazaruto Marine National Park.