GOM/Caribbean/Atlantic Ocean SST'S and Anomalies

[cycloneye]

Interesting graphic from NCEP.In the Pacific side La Nina is around thru September.However,interesting to note that in the Atlantic side especially the MDR area (Between Africa and Lesser Antilles),it starts warm,but by August and September it cools a bit.If that occurs,it may nor allow for many Cape Verde systems.Time will tell what will occur with the sst's.Down the road we will watch the trends to see how they go.

[SouthFloridawx]

Even though this forecast model shows near normal temperatures in the Atlantic, I can assure you that even with normal temps. it is more than enough to create and sustain tropical systems. In fact I believe that if we have below normal temps in the nino regions that means we'll have lower than normal shear. Although we will probably have more recurves, based on the fact that they will be able to develop earlier on, based on the theory of possible lowered shear values in the tropical atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest Anomalies graphic of the Atlantic Basin and it continues to show warm waters in the Eastern Atlantic,in the Central Atlantic north of 20n and east of 60w,in the Caribbean Sea and in parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wow look at those anomalies near the Gulf Coast! Scary!

[GeneratorPower]

Wow look at those anomalies near the Gulf Coast! Scary!

In this case, yes, it is noteworthy. I have mentioned that SSTs make much better short term predictors than long-term. Unusually warm SSTs right near the coast provide a bit more fuel for the fire right before landfall.

[HouTXmetro]

Wow look at those anomalies near the Gulf Coast! Scary!

Series of coming cold fronts and rain should help contain those Gulf temps.

[LSU2001]

So far we got the front but not the rain. I can't see what we have gotten so far doing much to cool of the gulf. It just isn't going to be cool enough for long enough to do much IMHO>
Tim

[cycloneye]

Above is the latest Heat Content graphic of the Atlantic,Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.Notice that in the Caribbean Sea it's warm with plenty of energy to fuel systems meaning a breading ground for early season systems to develop in that area.Of course,this factor is not the only one that will cause the season to be active or not,but it's an important one to look at as time goes by and the season draws close,to see how the Heat Content data will change one way to another.

[gatorcane]

This link gives a loop of the warming water temps in the Atlantic. Note the rapid warming and extending Gulf loop current in the Central GOM and the warming in the MDR (region between the Antilles and Africa)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[HurricaneHunter914]

Appears that the cold front we had, had little effect on the Gulf SSTs .

[JonathanBelles]

the water temp here dropped 8*

[MiamiensisWx]

Despite regional SST anomaly fluctuations (which mean nothing), heat content beneath the surface is stable. The heat content in the Caribbean and Gulf Stream remains very deep and warm but it is not unexpected for April. I expect the deepest heat content to work northward through the Gulf and Bahamas over the next several months as we enter the height of the season. I would monitor the heat content near the Lesser Antilles and northeastern South America.



Source

I'm not worried nor complacent but I'm concerned about one feature. Note the perimeter of the deepest heat content. It already reaches the southwest North Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and the Greater Antilles. It is nearly reaching the latitude of Miami and it is within the southern Bahamas. While heat content frequently reaches this latitude in April and even during portions of February and March, with the emergence of less shear this year (via favorable QBO) we could see more development (including homegrown development and formation near the northeast Antilles).

[cycloneye]

The latest anomalies update from TAFB.The Atlantic waters are warm except in parts of the western atlantic.

[meteorologyman]

Appears that the cold front we had, had little effect on the Gulf SSTs .

I'm sure every1 would love to see gulf SSt's to drop , unfortunatelty it takes more than 1 cold front to change the Ocean water temp, the warm water we have right now goes deep, so the cold front we had now may only had enough time to effect the surface of the water just a tad but not in depth of the water, espcially since the warm waters in central part of Atlantic is bring warm water up into the Gulf by the Ocean current,

It's like pouring cold water (the front) into a glass but at the same time your'e pouring hot water (ocean current) in that same glass.

[cycloneye]

The loop current is pretty warm as this moment as you can see in the data from LSU.



GOM anomalies from LSU

[meteorologyman]

Here SST's in Atlantic

http://www.weather.com/maps/oceans.html ... temps.html

Pacific

http://www.weather.com/maps/oceans.html ... temps.html

[Steve]

I'd hate to see the loop current refiring where they have it forecasted in September. Ack.

Steve

[drezee]

85 Day Forecast

[cycloneye]

Above is the 14th of April Heat Content graphic.The Caribbean Sea especially the western part is very warm.

[HURAKAN]

There are very few differences between 4/17/06 vs 4/17/07 in the sea-surface temperatures, but in an overall outlook, the Pacific is cooler and the Atlantic is warmer.