Madagascar: Indlala (19S): Dissipated

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful cyclone.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 140702

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/12/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (INDLALA)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/14 AT 0600 UTC :
14.0S / 52.1E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 MOINS /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 450 NO: 250
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/14 18 UTC: 14.7S/51.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2007/03/15 06 UTC: 15.4S/50.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2007/03/15 18 UTC: 16.1S/50.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/03/16 06 UTC: 16.8S/49.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2007/03/16 18 UTC: 17.4S/49.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2007/03/17 06 UTC: 17.9S/49.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5-.
A RATHER WARM EYE IS NOW PERSISTING, SHOWING THE ACTUAL INTENSIFICATION.
NEVERTHELESS, THE CONFIGURATION ON DIFFERENTS SAT IMAGERY IS FLUCTUANT
BETWEEN EYE PATTERN (WITH CLOSED DEEP CONVECTION RING) AND BANDING EYE
PATTERN (WITH OPEN DEEP CONVECTION BAND, AS IT IS VERY CLEAR ON SSMI
IMAGERY AT 0218Z
).

ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE IN LOW AND HIGH LEVELS. THE
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY OVER SST AT MORE THAN 27°C,
APPROACHING MALAGASY COASTS. THE STEERING FLOW RESULTS OF THE LIDLEVEL
HIGH ACTUALLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, WICH SHOULD CONSOLIDATE
EASTWARDS, MAKING INDLALA CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS.
NW MODELES FOERACT DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS AT MEDIUM RANGE, SOME MAKING IT
TRACK SOUTHWARDS OVER OCEAN, OTHER MAKING IT MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND OR MASOALA PENINSULA. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
CONSENSUS.

[Chacor]

NRL: 100kt 944 mbar.

[Chacor]

036
WWIO21 KNES 140917

SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN MTSAT VIS/IRDAY
.
MARCH 14 2007 0830Z
.
14.3S 51.9E T5.0/5.5/W0.5/06HRS INDLALA (19S)
.
PAST POSITIONS....13.2S 53.4E 13/1900Z IRNIGHT
12.9S 54.4E 13/0830Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS....SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED OVER 24 HOURS BUT HAS WEAKENED
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE VERY COLD CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE
EYE HAS SHRUNK. THE CURRENT EYE PATTERN PRODUCES A DT=5.0 WITH
THE PAT=5.0. THE 24 HOUR PAT=5.5. THE FINAL-T WAS BASED ON THE
PAT AND DT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 14/1600Z.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP-IMG.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
WALTER
.
NNNN




500
TPXS10 PGTW 141211 COR

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLALA)

B. 14/1130Z

C. 14.3S/8

D. 51.5E/1

E. ONE/MET7

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS (14/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

07A/PBO SMALL EYE/ANMTN. 23NM OW EYE SURR BY BLK RING
YIELDS DT OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJ YIELDING FINAL
DT OF 6.0. DBO DT. PT SUPPORTS. UNREP MET YIELDS 5.5.
CORRECTED SECTION F.

VIAULT

T6.0 = 115 kt 1-min.

[Chacor]

Rainfall:


781
TPXS10 KGWC 141235
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLALA)
B. 14/1131Z (15)
C. 14.3S/8
D. 51.5E/1
E. ONE/MET7
F. T6.0/6.0/D:1.5/24HRS -14/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

07A/ PBO SML EYE/ANMTN. 21 NM OW EYE SURROUNDED
BY BLK RNG YIELDS A DT OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE
ADJUSTMENT YIELDING A DT OF 6.0. FT BASED ON DT.
MET AGREES. PT YIELDS A 5.5.

BERNHARDT/HAMILTON



EDIT: NRL is now saying 115 kt 927 mbar.

[Chacor]

Now an intense tropical cyclone, 90kt 940 hPa.

WTIO30 FMEE 141253

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/12/20062007
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (INDLALA)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/14 AT 1200 UTC :
14.5S / 51.5E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 MOINS /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 450 NO: 250
50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/15 00 UTC: 15.2S/50.6E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2007/03/15 12 UTC: 16.1S/49.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/03/16 00 UTC: 16.7S/49.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 17.3S/48.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2007/03/17 00 UTC: 17.8S/48.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
72H: 2007/03/17 12 UTC: 18.3S/48.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5.

THE SYSTEM "INDLALA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING. THE 25NM DIAMETER EYE IS
WELL DEFINED AND MORE AND MORE "WARM", AND DEEP CONVECTION IS
CONCENTRATING AROUND THE CENTER.
"INDLALA" KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWEST TO WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS
MASOALA PENINSULA WICH IT COULD REACH DURING NEXT NIGHT.

THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE, IN FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (IN LOW
AND HIGH LEVELS), OVER SST AT MORE THAN 27°C, APPROACHING MALAGASY COASTS.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT MEDIUM RANGE. THE
RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS.

[Chacor]

WTXS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLALA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 14.3S 51.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 51.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.0S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.6S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.4S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.3S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 51.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (INDLALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED AT A
GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS INTENS-
IFICATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
TC 19S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH LAND. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150300Z AND 151500Z.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 141803

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/12/20062007
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (INDLALA)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/14 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 51.0E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 330 SO: 250 NO: 250
50 KT NE: 090 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 090

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/15 06 UTC: 15.4S/50.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2007/03/15 18 UTC: 15.9S/49.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/03/16 06 UTC: 16.5S/49.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2007/03/16 18 UTC: 17.2S/48.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2007/03/17 06 UTC: 17.7S/48.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
72H: 2007/03/17 18 UTC: 18.1S/47.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5+
TAKING BENEFIT OF A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, "INDLALA" INTENSIFIED
GRADUALLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 20 NM DIAMETER EYE IS NOW
CONSOLIDATED, BUT BOTH INFRA-RED AND MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY REVEAL A MORE
COMPLEX STRUCTURE WITH A SECONDARY CLOSED CONVECTIVE WALL (120 NM
DIAMETER), SIGNING A INTENSIFYING
SYSTEM ; THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS CURRENTLY REACH THE MALGASY COASTLINE AND
THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHALL STOP THE INTENSIFICATION PHASE.
"INDLALA" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE "INDLALA" IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL OVER MASOALA PENINSULA, IN THE VICINITY OF ANTALAHA, WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF "INDLALA" IS FORSEEN ONLY AFTER
24 TO 36 HOURS, ONCE THE CYCLONE HAS GOT ACROSS ANTONGIL BAY.

[MississippiHurricane]

Looks very well organized. I would not doubt it if contines to strengthen for a bit more. I will continue to watch this system since I never paid any attenion to systems outside the Epac and Atlantic basin before now.

[JonathanBelles]

that dome in the middle is huge! That area of madagascar is moderatly populated.

[HURAKAN]

The third major cyclone landfall of 2007.

[HURAKAN]

NE Madagascar Intense Cyclone Landfalls over the past few years:

Cyclone Hudah, 2000.


Cyclone Harry, 2002.


Cyclone Gafilo, 2004.


Many other systems less intense have impacted the area.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 145 MPH (1-min)

Meteo-France: 95 knots (10-min)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That 100 Kt 10 minute reading earlier must be 153 mph 1-minute sustained winds...very powerful

[HURAKAN]

That 100 Kt 10 minute reading earlier must be 153 mph 1-minute sustained winds...very powerful

Actually, 100 knots (10-min) * 1.14 = 114 knots (1-min)

114 knots (1-min) * 1.152 = 131.328 mph (1-min).

117 knots (10-min) will give you a ~153 mph (1-min) tropical cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

There has been land interaction for a few hours now but the cyclone hasn't notice it yet!!!

[P.K.]

T6.5 would suggest as high as 110kts.

TPXS10 PGTW 142115

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLALA)

B. 14/1900Z

C. 14.9S/4

D. 50.8E/3

E. ONE/MET7

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (14/1730Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

05A/PBO SMALL EYE/ANMTN.

TORREY

WWIO21 KNES 141941

SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN MET-7 IRNIGHT
.
MARCH 14 2007 1900Z
.
14.9S 50.9E T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS INDLALA (19S)
.
PAST POSITIONS...14.3S 51.9E 14/0830Z VIS/IRDAY
13.2S 53.4E 13/1900Z IRNIGHT

.
REMARKS...AN OW EYE IS SURROUNDED BY LG RESULTING IN A DT=5.0 .
ADDED 1.0 FOR BANDING. MET=6.0 PT=6.0 .
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 15/0400Z.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP-IMG.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
BROWN
.
NNNN

TPXS10 KGWC 142120
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLALA)
B. 14/2031Z (15)
C. 14.9S/4
D. 50.9E/4
E. ONE/MET8
F. T6.5/6.5/D:2.0/24HRS -14/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR

05A/ PBO SML 10NM EYE/ANMTN.

BROWN/LAURENTI

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That 100 Kt 10 minute reading earlier must be 153 mph 1-minute sustained winds...very powerful

Actually, 100 knots (10-min) * 1.14 = 114 knots (1-min)

114 knots (1-min) * 1.152 = 131.328 mph (1-min).

117 knots (10-min) will give you a ~153 mph (1-min) tropical cyclone.

ok thanks for the information on the conversion

[Category 5]

Nasty storm. My prayers go to all in it's path.

[HenkL]

Local warnings from Madagascar Meteo can be found here. They use the French language.