http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
The radar from Guam start showing the first rainbands of Kong-rey.
NWP: Developed Low former TS Kong-rey
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
JTWC has it passing over Saipan:
Rota, Guam, Tinian and Saipan all remain under Typhoon Warning and Condition of Readiness 2.
However,
...GUAM...
GUAM REMAINS IN CONDITION OF READINESS 2.
...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING WINDS OF 30 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE NOW UNLIKELY
FOR GUAM.
...COASTAL INUNDATION AND SURF INFORMATION...
STORM SURGE AND INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS KONG-REY
PASSES EAST OF GUAM.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
A FEW PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES...MAY PRODUCE
MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
THE TYPHOON WARNING FOR GUAM WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS
EVENING.
Rota, Guam, Tinian and Saipan all remain under Typhoon Warning and Condition of Readiness 2.
However,
...GUAM...
GUAM REMAINS IN CONDITION OF READINESS 2.
...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING WINDS OF 30 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE NOW UNLIKELY
FOR GUAM.
...COASTAL INUNDATION AND SURF INFORMATION...
STORM SURGE AND INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS KONG-REY
PASSES EAST OF GUAM.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
A FEW PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES...MAY PRODUCE
MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
THE TYPHOON WARNING FOR GUAM WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS
EVENING.
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JMA holds at 50 kt. However, it's taken a more NNW turn now. 06 position 13.4N 148.9E, so Guam is not likely to receive anything much more than moderate TS-force winds.
WTPQ30 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR STS 0701 KONG-REY (0701)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 020600 UTC IS FAIR.
STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
STS WILL RECURVE WITHIN 48 HOURS FROM 020600 UTC.
STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHEAST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
WTPQ30 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR STS 0701 KONG-REY (0701)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 020600 UTC IS FAIR.
STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
STS WILL RECURVE WITHIN 48 HOURS FROM 020600 UTC.
STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHEAST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
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-
HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
The last destructive storm to hit the Mariana Islands was Typhoon Tingting in 2004. Tingting was unusual in that the JMA's intensity was much stronger than the intensity given by the JTWC.
JTWC had Tingting peaking with 1-min sustained winds of 80KT.
JMA had Tingting peaking with 10-min sustained winds of 80KT. That translates to 1-min sustained winds of around 91KT.
Although Tingting passed to the north of Saipan, Guam received 20 inches of rain in about 24 hours!
Tingting claimed 7 lives in the Mariana Islands. The deaths were mainly a result of people drowning while caught in rip currents.
The name "Tingting" has been retired.
JTWC had Tingting peaking with 1-min sustained winds of 80KT.
JMA had Tingting peaking with 10-min sustained winds of 80KT. That translates to 1-min sustained winds of around 91KT.
Although Tingting passed to the north of Saipan, Guam received 20 inches of rain in about 24 hours!
Tingting claimed 7 lives in the Mariana Islands. The deaths were mainly a result of people drowning while caught in rip currents.
The name "Tingting" has been retired.
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-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
T0701 (KONG-REY)
Issued at 21:00 UTC 2 Apr 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0701 KONG-REY (0701)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 15.7N 146.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 032100UTC 19.6N 144.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
45HF 041800UTC 24.5N 150.2E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
69HF 051800UTC 29.2N 162.5E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
Issued at 21:00 UTC 2 Apr 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0701 KONG-REY (0701)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 15.7N 146.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 032100UTC 19.6N 144.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
45HF 041800UTC 24.5N 150.2E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
69HF 051800UTC 29.2N 162.5E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 145.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 145.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.2N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.8N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.2N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.3N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 28.2N 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 145.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 01W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM NORTH
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 KNOTS TO 90 KNOTS AND
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW NEAR 50-55 KNOTS. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE MORE REPRESENTATIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH A RAGGED 16-NM EYE
NOW EVIDENT IN IMAGERY. A 022254Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE EYE
AS WELL AS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER ALL QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 145.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 145.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.2N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.8N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.2N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.3N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 28.2N 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 145.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 01W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM NORTH
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 KNOTS TO 90 KNOTS AND
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW NEAR 50-55 KNOTS. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE MORE REPRESENTATIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH A RAGGED 16-NM EYE
NOW EVIDENT IN IMAGERY. A 022254Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE EYE
AS WELL AS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER ALL QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
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-
Hurricane Freak PR
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 12
- Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2007 9:28 pm
- Location: Gurabo, Puerto Rico
The storm spared Saipan again this time in an area that which is one of the most hited in the planet. A chasers paradise as I call it. The pressure fell down to 995mb in the hourly reports at the airport. The 200mb conditions seem to deteriorate really fast north of the storm (CIMSS analysis 0z) but for now those winds are only enhancing the divergence in the upper levels which is being reflected on further intensification by the storm with SAB now increasing to 4.5 and JTWC giving 70kts with sligth strengthening followed by weakening due to the wind shear ahead of the storm. CIMSS's ADT fell way behind with this storm now at 3.6...
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-
JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
-
AJC3
- Admin
- Posts: 4006
- Age: 61
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
- Location: Ballston Spa, New York
- Contact:
fact789 wrote:where is argihan?
Agrihan is just north of Pagan on this map...
http://chamorrobible.org/images/chamorr ... s-1989.jpg
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TYPHOON KONG-REY POSITION ESTIMATE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM
140 PM GUAM LST TUE APR 3 2007
CORRECTED DISTANCE NORTH OF GUAM
AT 130 PM GUAM LST...0330Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON KONG-REY /01W/ WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.9 DEGREES EAST.
THE WELL DEFINED CIRCULAR EYE DIAMETER IS 30 MILES AT AN ELEVATION
OF 35000 FEET FROM THE GUAM RADAR.
KONG-REY IS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE ANATAHAN VOLCANO...ABOUT 120 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND 225 MILES NORTH OF GUAM.
$$
EDSON
----------------------------
BULLETIN
TYPHOON KONG-REY (01W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
2 PM GUAM LST TUE APR 3 2007
...TYPHOON KONG-REY MOVING WEST OF THE MARIANAS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN.
AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KONG-REY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.5 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES NORTH OF GUAM
180 MILES NORTH OF ROTA
120 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
145 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN
75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN.
TYPHOON KONG-REY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 MPH. TYPHOON KONG-REY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 120 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER AND
OUT TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 1 PM GUAM LST POSITION...16.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 145.5
DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 PM GUAM LST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
8 PM GUAM LST.
$$
EDSON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM
140 PM GUAM LST TUE APR 3 2007
CORRECTED DISTANCE NORTH OF GUAM
AT 130 PM GUAM LST...0330Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON KONG-REY /01W/ WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.9 DEGREES EAST.
THE WELL DEFINED CIRCULAR EYE DIAMETER IS 30 MILES AT AN ELEVATION
OF 35000 FEET FROM THE GUAM RADAR.
KONG-REY IS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE ANATAHAN VOLCANO...ABOUT 120 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND 225 MILES NORTH OF GUAM.
$$
EDSON
----------------------------
BULLETIN
TYPHOON KONG-REY (01W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
2 PM GUAM LST TUE APR 3 2007
...TYPHOON KONG-REY MOVING WEST OF THE MARIANAS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN.
AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KONG-REY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.5 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES NORTH OF GUAM
180 MILES NORTH OF ROTA
120 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
145 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN
75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN.
TYPHOON KONG-REY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 MPH. TYPHOON KONG-REY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 120 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER AND
OUT TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 1 PM GUAM LST POSITION...16.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 145.5
DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 PM GUAM LST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
8 PM GUAM LST.
$$
EDSON
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The JMA's 0300 intermediate bulletin lowers Kong-rey's pressure to 970 hPa now, but no change in winds. In perspective, the 2006 BT shows that for any storm at 970 hPa the wind speeds range from 60 kt - 75 kt.
WTPQ20 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0701 KONG-REY (0701)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 16.6N 145.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 040300UTC 20.6N 144.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
45HF 050000UTC 24.7N 150.3E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
69HF 060000UTC 28.6N 162.1E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
WTPQ20 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0701 KONG-REY (0701)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 16.6N 145.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 040300UTC 20.6N 144.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
45HF 050000UTC 24.7N 150.3E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
69HF 060000UTC 28.6N 162.1E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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WTJP21 RJTD 030600
WARNING 030600.
WARNING VALID 040600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0701 KONG-REY (0701) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970 HPA
AT 16.8N 144.6E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 19.8N 144.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 23.9N 149.4E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 26.2N 156.0E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING 030600.
WARNING VALID 040600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0701 KONG-REY (0701) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970 HPA
AT 16.8N 144.6E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 19.8N 144.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 23.9N 149.4E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 26.2N 156.0E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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