What # hurricane would you ride out?

[DanKellFla]

Check out this thread in Hurricane Prep

[wxman57]

It must be pointed out that you are also risking your life if you DO evacuate. Nothing in life is a simplistic "better safe than sorry" paradigm. And even if evacuation had a zero chance of being fatal, the choice still isn't that simple. Every choice in life is a tradeoff of something for something else, and often one of those somethings is the chance of death or severe injury.

If we stubbornly determine that we should never accept any course of action that increases our chance of death, then where would that leave us? We would never get in the car and go anywhere unless it was absolutely necessary. We would not spend any money on plasma TV's or vacations, because we'd have to save the money, to spend on a vehicle with the best crash test ratings in the world, and the most advanced security system in the world to keep away dangerous criminals, and bodyguards to escort us everywhere, and maybe even food testers. And of course weekly trips to the doctor to run every possible test to nip any possible disease in the bud.

Sure, if a bona fide Cat 5 is headed your way, get out however you can. But a tropical storm?

I think you're missing my point, which was meant for someone living right on the coast in the surge zone for any hurricane. My point is that those living in the surge zone will need to make the decision to evacuate or not about 3 days before a tropical cyclone makes landfall. Our ability to predict intensity is very poor. Average error is about one SS category per day. Let's say it's 3 days out from landfall and the NHC is predicting a TS with 60-70 mph winds and your home could be flooded by a storm surge from a Cat 1-2 hurricane. That forecast of a 60-70 mph TS could be quite wrong and you could be faced with a Cat 2 or Cat 3 hurricane and only hours to react if you didn't evacuate. Or the TS could go through a period of rapid intensification overnight, like Opal, Charley, WIlma, Rita, or Katrina and you'd really be in danger.

Yes, there are some times when we're quite confident that wind shear will be high enough to prevent such rapid intensification (or gradual intensification) in the 3 days leading up to landfall. But unless you're a meteorologist, you won't be able to decipher such information from the NHC advisories. Another problem is that local emergency management officials won't be able to comprehend my point either. They may look at the NHC forecast of a strong TS and tell residents to stay put, thinking that the intensity forecast is accurate. Larger communities will likely be on a conference call with the NHC, though, and the question of rapid intensification above the current forecast of landfall intensity may be brought up.

So my point is that you cannot base your decision to evacuate or not based upon a PREDICTED landfall intensity 3 days out. You have to consider the POTENTIAL intensity, which could be 2-4 categories higher than predicted.

[GalvestonDuck]

Sure, if a bona fide Cat 5 is headed your way, get out however you can. But a tropical storm?

You're in Texas City, right? Come on down to the island's west end during a tropical storm and observe the water for just a few hours (but park just off 3005 and walk to the beach).

Sometimes, it's not so much about saving your life as it is about taking a few hours away from home in order to save your car and a few belongings from the surge (yes, there is surge even during a TS in those low-lying areas).

Now, how FAR you evacuate is a whole other story. During a TS, west enders might only have to come to the main part of the island and stay with friends during the course of the storm. That's still an "evacuation" but nothing like the famous one from 2005.

[wxman57]

Good points, GalvestonDuck. Another thing I'd mention is what's called a "setup tide". A tropical cyclone (even a TS) can produce a large area of onshore flow days before landfall. Such setup tides can get as high as 5-8 feet above MSL. This could cut off low-lying evacuation routes 36-48 hours before landfall. Should that TS develop into a Cat 2-4 hurricane in that short time (quite possible), you're stuck where you are and you could be killed.

[Janie2006]

Yep. Dauphin Island is a perfect example of an onshore flow preceding a landfall. Parts of that island become impassible sometimes 36 hours before landfall. It doesn't help that much of the island is quite nearly at MSL.

[Rainband]

Remember "allison" was a TS

[wxman57]

Remember "allison" was a TS

When Allison dropped over 30 inches of rain in NE Houston back in June of 2001 it was only a remnant tropical low. It had been drifting around east of Dallas for 3-4 days before heading back south toward Houston. But the real problem on the coast is storm surge from a "surprise" rapid development.

[Derek Ortt]

Frances in 1998 caused a fairly large surge on Galveston, especially in the unprotected regions, and it was "only" a strong TS

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Strong Tropical Storm Frances 2004 as it moved just north of Tampa Bay and Into the Gulf of Mexico with 60 mph sustained winds made the water levels
rise 4 feet in my canal and FLOODED my back yard and Flooded roads leading out of my neighborhood--- a 60 mph Tropical Storm created enough flooding
to make getting out of my neighborhood tough.


Tropical Storm Frances with 60 mph winds ruined my back yard with Flooding from the surge in my canal/pond connected to Tampa Bay
going up 4-5 feet!!!!

I couldn't get out of my neighborhood due to flooding from a Tropical Storm! Isn't that SCARY??? Yup.

Well, my point is that Tropical Storms can cause very serious flooding and surge problems.

[GalvestonDuck]

Frances in 1998 caused a fairly large surge on Galveston, especially in the unprotected regions, and it was "only" a strong TS

I missed out on the fun with Frances, but saw the devastation she caused at the Kemah Boardwalk. I moved here during Georges.

[CrazyC83]

Remember "allison" was a TS

Allison was more like a never-ending thunderstorm than a "normal" tropical storm though...

[wxman57]

Frances in 1998 caused a fairly large surge on Galveston, especially in the unprotected regions, and it was "only" a strong TS

Right, good example of a TS producing a 6-8 foot setup tide 2-3 days before landfall. Had Frances been able to really get going, then people in low-lying areas would have been unable to leave.

[Recurve]

Such excellent points from WXMAN and Derek as always.

My neighbors and I have the classic problem of predicting in advance whether a minimal TC that has yet to cross the Gulfstream has the potential to explode. The Labor Day Hurricane intensified just from Andros to Islamorada from barely Cat 1 to Cat 5. I never thought we'd see rapid intensification like that again and then Charley and Katrina and a few other Florida/Gulf storms did shocking things.

The Keys face a terrible chance of bracing for a TS or Cat 1 and getting a buzzsaw. At least Card Sound road has been raised, so spring tides no longer wash onto the pavement. For this summer though, the 18-mile stretch is a mess with the bridge construction around Jewfish Creek. At least that will eliminate the drawbridge.

For me, I basically will never rule out evacuation. If the track has a chance of impacting the Keys, I'll have to be ready to flee, even if it's a late night, six hours before landfall race just to reach Homestead and get out of the surge zone.

The last maddening wrinkle is an Andrew track. If a Cat 4-5 is progged to our north, we are somewhat safer from surge, but our evacuation to the southern mainland is into the path. That's when the Upper Keys residents think even about going further down the Keys. We can put 100 more miles between us and the storm. B then if we had a Katrina-like track that followed us down the Keys, we'd all be screwed.

[Derek Ortt]

I am convinced that the Keys residents will never leave. A possible direct hit from a 3 in Wilma and 80 percent stayed

[robag]

Recurve- I have been thinking about us Keys storm followers possibly getting together sometime before the brunt of the season. I love to talk about hurricanes and I feel that knowledge is power when deciding the proper way to handle an evacuation scenario. What do you think? I am in Key Largo.

[cajungal]

During when Tropical Storm Bill hit and when Lili hit, a lot of people in the low lying areas where I live, had to call into work. They were unable to leave their home due to flooding. Everything south of Houma like Montegut, floods for basically everything. And the levees broke for Bill, Lili and Rita. I hate to see what what happen if a major hurricane takes a direct hit here or hits just to our west like Morgan City. These places will be virtually wiped off the map since they go under water just during a thunderstorm.

[Bonedog]

wow.. so many folks willing to take a risk and possibly their families at risk because of a brick house and post andrew codes. I will do what wxman said and head for the hills. I sat through Andrew in Naples, Rode out Charlie in Punta Gorda guess what folks.. I am getting the heck outta dodge the next time around.

A local sheriff told my friends and I that if we were staying please write our SS#'s and next of kin's phone number on our bodies that way they could identify us after the storm had passed. We thought he was joking. I learned my lesson that day.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

CAT1 (up for debate) Wilma was bad in NW Broward. The storm didn't scare us as badly as the aftermath.

Rode out Katrina (again marginal CAT1) here, Frances, and Jeanne.

I'm not staying if its a strengthening CAT1 or a weakening CAT2 or anything stronger coming from the east across the bahamas. I'll consider staying for a CAT2 from the south or west, but not one likely to strengthen.

If we're in the cone for a 3+ we're goners to atlanta at the 3 day point.

Would consider going to Tampa for a 1 or 2 from the east.

[Ptarmigan]

Frances in 1998 caused a fairly large surge on Galveston, especially in the unprotected regions, and it was "only" a strong TS

TS Frances in 1998 was large. It had TS winds extending up to 345 miles. I remember this storm well. It rained a lot.

[Ptarmigan]

Remember "allison" was a TS

Allison was a big rainmaker. Up to 40 inches of rain fell, including 28 inches in 12 hours. Allison was a "core" rain event, like Charley (1998), Claudette, and Amelia.