Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

[fci]

good she is sliding SE just hold together for another 12 hours turn what's left of the swell machine toward palm beach county again.

storm took out parking lot in jupiter fl http://evsjupiter.netfirms.com/main.htm

lake worth inlet tuesday http://dadecosurf.com/index.php?q=galle ... temId=6270

and again 12 feet sets http://dadecosurf.com/index.php?q=galle ... temId=6243

Why do you want swells to turn towards Palm Beach County again?
Bad beach erosion, rip tides really don't make for a real party to me.

We just need rain and rain and more rain to get out of this drought and put out the fires.
IMO, Swells do us no good at all.
Not understanding the glee in a continuation of the erosion and dangerous surf.

[gotoman38]

Say goodbye to Andrea. Mid-level shear has been undercutting the structure. The LLC definitely appears to be decoupling.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

A broad naked swirl with no defined surface circulation may be the dominant feature within 24 hours.

I see her rejoining under the convection, but it's just a guess.

[Scorpion]

I don't understand why people keep on thinking this will bring rain when there are no indications that it will, especially to southern Florida

[eastcoastFL]

Can someone explain how andrea will die off if she is left floating along the gulf stream? I am just not understanding all the forecasts. Is there shear or dry air in the area?

[NDG]

I don't understand why people keep on thinking this will bring rain when there are no indications that it will, especially to southern Florida

The thinking is or was that together with the SW movement of Andrea, moisture is going to return to FL and with help of afternoon heating and other instabilities, little by little afternoon showers will start getting going from central to southern FL over the next few days, maybe not related totally with Andrea.

[eastcoastFL]

Thank you very much for your insight. That would be great for us in the central and south florida areas. I am tired of coughing when I go out side because of the smoke in the air.

[Ptarmigan]

What's the next storm name once Andrea dies?

Borat:

[Janie2006]

Can someone explain how andrea will die off if she is left floating along the gulf stream? I am just not understanding all the forecasts. Is there shear or dry air in the area?

Well, the existence of plenty of mid-level shear in the atmosphere and cooler sea surface temperatures (which are marginal at best) are two big factors.

[Coredesat]

Dry air is the biggest factor; check the images linked earlier in the thread. The dry air is choking off all the convection on the western half of the cyclone.

[Janie2006]

Quite so! Ach, my attention has been a bit diverted this evening.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Not a whole lot on the western side, the eastern side has
some convection...if it can get under the convection it
may hold steady and develop more rain.
Water Temperatures are still 77-79 F

But shear may destroy it within a day or two,
hopefully it still has some moisture.

My forecast of a 50 mph Tropical Storm from this
will likely be wrong...shear may eat this for dinner

But there is a slight, and VERY slight, chance of it
staying a storm through the next 24-48 hours and perhaps
developing more moisture as winds switch out of SW
to the West of the storm allowing for more moist inflow,
but there is going to be a battle with shear...
and given that this is early May, with the subtropical
jet so far south, shear will likely cause Andrea to dissipate.

So folks, most likely, it looks to me that Andrea gradually
weakens over the next 24 hours.

I know I could have said that more concisely, but I felt the
need to elaborate on the various atmospheric and
environmental factors here.

[djones65]

Andrea reminds me of what the NHC designated TS Bret on 30 June 1981. I know that is a long long time ago, but I remember watching a very similar situation unfold with an anomalously strong low pressure form off the Canadian Maritimes, became vertically stacked and retrograded westward. I do not remember if they sent recon, but they classified it as tropical storm Bret at 1500 UTC 30 June 1981 and issued gale warnings or tropical storm warnings for the mid-Atlantic states coast around the Delmarva peninsula. Almost immediately after advisories were initiated the deep convection began dissipating and a well defined low level or stratus cloud circulation made landfall on 1 July 1981 over Chesapeake Bay, VA. There were numerous coastal stations that measured winds in excess of 40 mph, but no where near the advertised 60 mph that was assigned when Bret was classified as a tropical cyclone.

In my opinion, Bret and Andrea are identical situations... Bret moved over the Gulf Stream, with a shot of energy the deep convection consolidated briefly for only 6-8 hours, and then as it moved through the Gulf stream and encountered the coastal shelf water which was in the 60's all deep convection dissipated. Since there was no deep convection to "mix" the storm-force (in excess of 50-60 mph), only gusts to 40-45 mph were measured.

Any of you hurricane nuts remember Bret 30 June - 2 July 1981?
Although since Bret occurred after 1 June it wasn't as exciting or "recon-worthy" as Andrea's pre-season formation.

Didn't wxman57 remark about the Seinfeld episode and "recon-worthy" comments?? I like that, we can coin a whole new concept similar to Elaine's obsession... LOL

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Andrea reminds me of what the NHC designated TS Bret on 30 June 1981. I know that is a long long time ago, but I remember watching a very similar situation unfold with an anomalously strong low pressure form off the Canadian Maritimes, became vertically stacked and retrograded westward. I do not remember if they sent recon, but they classified it as tropical storm Bret at 1500 UTC 30 June 1981 and issued gale warnings or tropical storm warnings for the mid-Atlantic states coast around the Delmarva peninsula. Almost immediately after advisories were initiated the deep convection began dissipating and a well defined low level or stratus cloud circulation made landfall on 1 July 1981 over Chesapeake Bay, VA. There were numerous coastal stations that measured winds in excess of 40 mph, but no where near the advertised 60 mph that was assigned when Bret was classified as a tropical cyclone.

In my opinion, Bret and Andrea are identical situations... Bret moved over the Gulf Stream, with a shot of energy the deep convection consolidated briefly for only 6-8 hours, and then as it moved through the Gulf stream and encountered the coastal shelf water which was in the 60's all deep convection dissipated. Since there was no deep convection to "mix" the storm-force (in excess of 50-60 mph), only gusts to 40-45 mph were measured.

Any of you hurricane nuts remember Bret 30 June - 2 July 1981?
Although since Bret occurred after 1 June it wasn't as exciting or "recon-worthy" as Andrea's pre-season formation.

Didn't wxman57 remark about the Seinfeld episode and "recon-worthy" comments?? I like that, we can coin a whole new concept similar to Elaine's obsession... LOL

I agree about the system moving over the gulf stream, the gulf stream is what made this system subtropical. Also the fact that shear was low,,,everything lined up perfectly. Kind of makes you think how on earth did a major hurricane form in May,,,I believe it was 1951 and its name was Able. Also I've stated a few times through out today that the reason for the organizion this morning was the 76-78 degree gulf stream, now that it is moving into the cooler waters. With buoys showing 67-71 degrees, this just doe's not have the fuel to do anything. That is why the convection is forming over the eastern side. YES this was a subtropical storm anything that gets a 3.0ST and a warm core on fsu is pretty much the only tools we have; to tell whats extratropical and subtropical. I feel this deserved its name as much as Alison 2001,Bret 2005,Grace 2003, many more. But they did find a weak warm core, and it was upgraded based on facts.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Some people are no impressed by this system, but remember not all cyclone are impessive, if you went impressive look at photo's of Rita,Andrew,Ivan,Katrina,Mitch,Georges,Floyd,Camille,Gilbert, many more. Not all cyclones are that.

I know some people will disagree with me, and call this undeserving of being named. But they found a closed LLC with at least a even temperature grad across from inside to out. Subtropical supposed to mean between extratropical and fully tropical. And yes I do understand the cost of the recon, that is why we have to use the t numbers/FSU temp models to tell how a storm is doing, and buoys. Yeah this would of likely been upgraded away form land to, remember LEE.

[Janie2006]

I've no issue with the naming of the system. I think all the appropriate criteria were met. People tend to forget that sometimes the most troublesome systems do not resemble the classic "buzzsaw" shape at all.

[Coredesat]

10/0545 UTC 30.5N 80.0W ST1.5/1.5 ANDREA -- Atlantic Ocean

No signs of strengthening based on the Hebert-Poteat numbers. Indeed, QuikSCAT shows the circulation running away from the convection:

[web]http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas19.png[/web]

[HURAKAN]

Now the windshear impacting the system is between 20-30 knots compared to 5-10 knots before.

[HURAKAN]

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
500 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

...ANDREA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...215 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 100
MILES...165 KM...NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

THE STORM IS DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...30.4 N...80.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?

No surprise in the intensity decrease. Also, unfortunately it seems Andrea will not answer Florida's water problems.

[wxman57]

It's quite certain we now have STD Andrea. Recon is on the way out, but buoy/ship reports all around the center indicate 30-35 mph winds at most. For those of you in Florida hoping for rain from Andrea, it doesn't look good. Westerly shear is keeping all convection east of the center, and that probably won't change. To quote anotehr Seinfeld episode "NEXT!"

[TampaFl]

[HURAKAN]

It's quite certain we now have STD Andrea. Recon is on the way out, but buoy/ship reports all around the center indicate 30-35 mph winds at most. For those of you in Florida hoping for rain from Andrea, it doesn't look good. Westerly shear is keeping all convection east of the center, and that probably won't change. To quote anotehr Seinfeld episode "NEXT!"

Agree, but lets see what the RECON finds. Maybe there is still some 40-mph winds areas in the convection.