Thinking Extreme Southern Gulf Next Week

[Berwick Bay]

Still see Tropical Low then Depression near west tip of Cuba--Southern Gulf between May 28th-31st. High Pressure over Eastern Gulf falling back to the east somewhat, with oncoming trough now over La. and extending south in Western Gulf. The falling back of this High should allow for lower pressures in the NW Carribean to begin to creep up into the Yucutan Channel (as I believe is happening now). Also think that the falling back of this High will allow for moisture influx into the area. Will look for increased shower activity near West tip of Cuba as early as tonight and tomorrow. Looking for formation of distinct circulation centered near tip of Cuba by Monday. Any actual upgrade to Depression status should occur within the Gulf of Mexico proper. So I think the key now is the migration north of lower pressures into the Yucutan Channel itself, with the formation of a circulation which is out from under the shear affecting areas to the south in the Carribean. Also think the formation of a circulation will bring up the moisture from the Carribean into the Channel and then Gulf.

[wxman57]

Sounds like a lot of wishful thinking here. I don't see much out of the ordinary anywhere in the tropics. There's always an area of lower pressure in the SW Caribbean this time of year, and the models always have a tough time handling it. Various model runs (particularly the GFS) will try to develop a tropical storm out of that area. There's really only a very slim chance of any development, probably less than 5%. Certainly nothing in the next few days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

In case anyone is wondering...

Here is the latest from JB (a very short snipit from his morning post):

"Changes in weather pattern this week and pattern pulse make western Caribbeean and eastern and central gulf areas to watch for tropical influence."

Looks like he is watching this situation too.

[skysummit]

In case anyone is wondering...

Here is the latest from JB (a very short snipit from his morning post):

"Changes in weather pattern this week and pattern pulse make western Caribbeean and eastern and central gulf areas to watch for tropical influence."

Looks like he is watching this situation too.

Either that, or he is just going along with regular ole' simple climatology as far as areas to watch this time of year.

[AJC3]

Posted this is the Carib thread....and I guess it probably should have gone here instead...

"After a quick look at the 00Z ECM/06Z GFS, the height falls beginning around day 5 in the GOMEX are an important change in the pattern for Florida - though not necessarily for TC formation. It's the first time this spring that I've seen a synoptic setup that could bring deep tropical moisture - PWAT on the order of 2 inches - up across most if not all of the state. Would make for a widespread convective event, possibly producing significant rainfall over a large area - something we need badly down here to start to put a dent in the drought conditions which have plagued the state for so long.

Now...having said that. let's wait a few days and see if we can get a day 2-3 forecast from the models that looks reasonably close to what the current guidance is suggesting."


...and the 12Z GFS is in line with this thinking as well. As usual, the ECM was the first to pick up this as it's 25/00Z run showed much lower H50 height fields moving into the GOMEX. H25 southern stream jet looks pretty favorable for generating forced ascent somewhere around Florida during the middle to latter part of next week. Might generate some sort of baroclinic low at the surface...more likely an weak open wave or trough of some sort. The good thing is that it may point to a decent rain episode for Florida....if it actually pans out.

[Berwick Bay]

I think that favorable conditions may be coming together rather quickly (perhaps even too quickly for the eye to see??) in regards to the formation of that tropical depression in the extreme Southern Gulf (near tip of Cuba and SW of Key West) which I foresaw about a week ago now. Insturments are finally beginning to pick up on pressure falls in the NW Carib. and with the High in the Gulf backing out slowly to the East, these pressure falls should migrate into the extreme SE Gulf. Moisture throughout the Gulf and Carribean has increased tremendously just in the last 48 hours. The most opportune place for a closed low to be upgraded to Depression would not be in the Carribean but in that area which I have described as the extreme Southern Gulf. As described earlier this area will form a niche between three giant upper level systems (retreating High over Fl, oncoming trough in Western Gulf, and the W-E zonal flow in the Carribean.

[AJC3]

I think that favorable conditions may be coming together rather quickly (perhaps even too quickly for the eye to see??) in regards to the formation of that tropical depression in the extreme Southern Gulf (near tip of Cuba and SW of Key West) which I foresaw about a week ago now. Insturments are finally beginning to pick up on pressure falls in the NW Carib. and with the High in the Gulf backing out slowly to the East, these pressure falls should migrate into the extreme SE Gulf. Moisture throughout the Gulf and Carribean has increased tremendously just in the last 48 hours. The most opportune place for a closed low to be upgraded to Depression would not be in the Carribean but in that area which I have described as the extreme Southern Gulf. As described earlier this area will form a niche between three giant upper level systems (retreating High over Fl, oncoming trough in Western Gulf, and the W-E zonal flow in the Carribean.

I can't see this occurring as you describe.

Here's why. Currently, the lowest environmental pressures are in the western Caribbean, and there are two well defined vortices are currently in that general vicinity. I don't see the mechanism for pressure falls to occur north and west of there, unless you want to count jet forced ascent. Mid and upper level winds are progged by every single short and medium range model to increase north of 25N as the mid to upper level trough begins to settle southeastward toward the western Gulf. A TD is simply not going to form where upper level winds are forecast to increase to 40-50 knots. A baroclinic low or trough? Sure. But not a TD.

If "something" is going to form, I think it would be one of these two scenarios:

1) A TC develops in the western Caribbean. It lifts north and then northeast ahead of the GOMEX trough as it intensifies and morphs into a baroclinically enhanced hybrid-type low.

or

2) A mostly baroclinic low forms somewhere around Florida, east of the GOMEX trough.

[Berwick Bay]

Thank you AJ for taking the time to reply to my post about Depression formation in the extreme Southern Gulf next week. Your scientific analysis about why Depression formation in the Gulf is unlikely is very much appreciated here. I would only say that perhaps I have been a little too specific with what I see (I do have a tendency to incline toward the minute as opposed to the general). But I like to make as exact a call as possible so that there can be no doubt.In this case I have called the extreme Southern Gulf (off west tip of Cuba and SW of Key West). This location is south of the 25th parallel wich you mentioned in your post. So I believe that it will still be protected from the shear further north. Also, you mention the circulations already apparent in the NW Carribean and state that development in the NW Carribean is possible. Well, one of those circulations is off the Yucutan Penninsula and has been there for at least 36 hours. This location is really not very far at all from my point of possible development or upgrade to depression status. My point of development would be about 22N and 85W. But thanks again for providing the meteorlogical data with which you define these events.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Berwick bay your original thinking about increasing moisture over
the caribbean is coming true. I am very impressed at you seeing these
factors well in advance.

[Rainband]

there is a 1010mb low near the yucatan

[LaBreeze]

Local met stated tonight that midweek we should have an increase in rainfall due to some tropical moisture making its way into our area. Is this the same "system" that everyone is seeing coming out of the Caribbean? Just wondering.

[Opal storm]

Local met stated tonight that midweek we should have an increase in rainfall due to some tropical moisture making its way into our area. Is this the same "system" that everyone is seeing coming out of the Caribbean? Just wondering.

Yeah we also have a great chance for rain later this week, our local met said that the ridge will be backing off allowing the trough to suck some moisture up to the Gulf Coast.

[LaBreeze]

Well, I know all of you kind folks in Florida could certainly use the moisture to get some relief from the dry conditions you've had and to help with the wildfires. I hope that you get some relief soon. I'm heading to Florida on June 4th - hope that we don't have any strong "systems" while I'm there, but I know the rain would be welcomed.

[Berwick Bay]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, we're in the May 28-31 time period that I forecast for possible development, and at this point, it doesn't look good for my forecast. My view was very long range to say the least. I thought that my forecast was materializing when a low pressure center appeared just east of the Yucutan and just south of where I foresaw it in my prognostication. But that low moved inland over the Yucutan yesterday. However, there is still abundant and growing moisture throughout the area, and I'm going to wait and see what happens as the trough over Texas (with swirling low there) finally begins to dig further down into the Gulf. I'm going to wait out the week and see if tropical low pressure doesn't form near the tail end of the trough moving across the Gulf. That tail end area would be near the west tip of Cuba. I really thought that the trough would have moved more deeply into the Gulf by now. So I'll patiently look for development this week.

[boca]

Berwick Bay this is out of NWS Miami so you still might be on track for something to pop your just a week off.

MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING...WITH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL
ADVERTISING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE MOVEMENT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND RESULTANT MOTION OF THE WEAKER
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO IMAGINE ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION OF BOTH SYSTEMS...
ESPECIALLY IF THE NORTHERN TROUGH INDEED BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE
POLAR BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AS THE MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST WILL
OCCUR. THE OTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS SUGGESTED
BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS ENSEMBLES...WITH
THIS SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT BOTH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
AND FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND...POPS
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND

[Frank2]

I might have believed that discussion two or three days ago, but, this morning the Caribbean almost free of clouds, with the departing convection moving northeast into the open Atlantic (if the IR looks this clear, then, it must be almost cloud-free)...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

as our late Director would say at this kind of satellite photo - "Go home, Frank!"

P.S. Not that we couldn't use a good soaker from a tropical disturbance or even a depression, but, it just doesn't look like it'll turn out that way this week...

[Berwick Bay]

Ten days ago I posted my forecast for possible tropical depression development in the extreme Southern Gulf during the time frame May 28th-31st. At the time of forecast, conditions were totally hostile, and I know many thought me crazy. But since the projected time frame began on Monday, thunderstorms have accumulated in the area. And I still "see" tropical depression formation in the extreme Southern Gulf. If my forecast bears out, the point of origin would be very near the tip of Western Cuba just at the entrance to the southern Gulf.

[JonathanBelles]

Wow i am eating my words BB. How did you forecast that far out?

[gatorcane]

Wow i am eating my words BB. How did you forecast that far out?

Berwick, simply amazing.

I really thought you were crazy.

[chris_fit]

Hit the nail on the head huh....

very nice.