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Weatherfreak000

Re: looks good in the mid/upper levels but...

#61 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri May 25, 2007 6:12 pm

benny wrote:I agree with a previous poster.. something is odd about the low-level circulation as best we can tell from visible pictures. there is a nice ball of convection and mid-level center 10-11n.. but it appears like any closed low-level circulation is farther to the northeast. I disagree with people thinking this would be called something if it were in another place. Satellite can be deceiving sometimes, especially with an upper high so close by making the outflow and the overall pattern look impressive.

Still wouldn't be surprised if this was a TD tonight or tomorrow morning though...


Hmmm...


After closer examination I have to concur with your analysis Benny. In the latest Satellite imagery it definitely does appear to show two spins in the system, the MLC located to the SE of the LLC.

Perhaps with the Diurnal Maximum these two can consolidate, but this will definitely need to be happening before we see Alvin, but it might not mean we won't see TD-E #1 soon.
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#62 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 25, 2007 7:55 pm

26/0000 UTC 12.3N 109.2W T1.0/1.5 90E -- East Pacific Ocean

SSD dvorak technnique doesn't seem too bullish on 90E.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
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#63 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri May 25, 2007 9:25 pm

When do they typically consider classifying such as a tropical depression, T2.0?

Anyway I think we will see TD1-E sometime tomorrow. Here comes Alvin possibly! (Sorry Simon and Theodore, but he takes the spotlight - LOL!)
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#64 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri May 25, 2007 9:34 pm

The outflow pattern is very impressive, but it's large. Thus, it could tend to draw in drier air from the NW, which will halt significant intensification.
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#65 Postby Cyclenall » Sat May 26, 2007 12:25 am

wxmann_91 wrote:The outflow pattern is very impressive, but it's large. Thus, it could tend to draw in drier air from the NW, which will halt significant intensification.

It became larger on Friday morning from Thursday night. Now currently, it looks like it got way smaller again! It's doing something strange.
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#66 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat May 26, 2007 12:31 am

Cyclenall wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:The outflow pattern is very impressive, but it's large. Thus, it could tend to draw in drier air from the NW, which will halt significant intensification.

It became larger on Friday morning from Thursday night. Now currently, it looks like it got way smaller again! It's doing something strange.


Not strange at all. The original convection yesterday night died as one "blob" started controlling the environment and began drawing the inflow away from the other storms. I would like to correct myself - this really isn't that large - it just looks large. Whoever said it was still somewhat attached to the ITCZ was right... the convection to the south seems like it might be shearing the system just a tad. Still don't see much intensification, due to that fact, and later when it moves into the stable air. But maybe it just looks smaller now as it is starting to separate from the ITCZ convection.
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#67 Postby Cyclenall » Sat May 26, 2007 1:25 am

This wasn't posted yet:

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260335
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

In other words, it doesn't look as good as it did before :cry: .
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#68 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 26, 2007 3:30 am

It has went POOF the convection over the center is gone, while there is a area of convection to the north of what was the center. Unless this changes forget development.
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#69 Postby Chacor » Sat May 26, 2007 3:44 am

This is the latest night VIS from about five hours ago:

Image

The latest IR:

Image
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#70 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 26, 2007 3:44 am

The thing is very spread out, yes theres some convection trying to form over Center. But this could as easly fall apart for good to. Looks like 'Edit' at the moment.

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html
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#71 Postby ncupsscweather » Sat May 26, 2007 4:18 am

Yes looks to be falling apart. Well we get our hopes up then this happens dang..... :roll:
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#72 Postby Chacor » Sat May 26, 2007 4:33 am

Latest TWD doesn't mention anything about falling apart, though.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 12N110W 1008 MB WITH A BROAD AREA
OF DIFFLUENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND
112W. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO STATIONARY.
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#73 Postby Nimbus » Sat May 26, 2007 5:12 am

The morning quickscat only picked up the west side of the low level circulation.

Quickscat

The low level circulation is plenty strong, but the convection is being blown off from the northeast to the southwest by light shear. Convection should pick up later in the day and the next full quickscat should show at least a depression.
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#74 Postby Chacor » Sat May 26, 2007 5:35 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260948
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 580 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
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#75 Postby WmE » Sat May 26, 2007 6:08 am

Dvorak numbers now back at T1.5/1.5

26/0600 UTC 12.4N 109.8W T1.5/1.5 90E -- East Pacific Ocean
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#76 Postby benny » Sat May 26, 2007 7:54 am

Looks pretty sick to me! This is a pretty classic case of people trying to jump the gun and call anything with a spin and convection a depression... :) Of course, the system farther east will probably try to get going now...
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#77 Postby Chacor » Sat May 26, 2007 8:17 am

No longer that great looking...

Image
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#78 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat May 26, 2007 9:08 am

benny wrote:Looks pretty sick to me! This is a pretty classic case of people trying to jump the gun and call anything with a spin and convection a depression... :) Of course, the system farther east will probably try to get going now...


Good to see you benny... I think there are a lot of us guilty of just that. I like to look at it as wishful thinking. :wink:
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#79 Postby Chacor » Sat May 26, 2007 10:27 am

Image
Image

Poof?
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#80 Postby Chacor » Sat May 26, 2007 11:37 am

Says it all:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
STATIONARY LOW PRES AT 12N110W 1011 MB LOSING CONVECTION
QUICKLY. WARMING TOPS IN SPITE OF MAXIMUM RADIATIVE COOLING
TIMING INDICATES LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. AREA RAPIDLY BEING
CAUGHT UP BY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER JUST E-SE...NEAR 10N107W...AND
POSSIBLE MERGING EXPECTED. APPROACHING CLUSTER HAS FAVORABLE
SUPPORT ALOFT AS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW APPEARS TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION. CLUSTER IS GROWING IN SIZE...HEIGHT AND VORTICITY.
GFS AND NOGAPS MAKE APPROACHING CLUSTER THEIR MAIN CENTER FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GROWTH. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90-120 NM FROM ITS CENTER WITH VERY COLD MERITS CLOSE
MONITORING AS DEVELOPMENT INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED WITHIN
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. WWD MOTION EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW.
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