Thinking West-Central Gulf for Tropical Formation 9-12 Days

[JonathanBelles]

Today looks pretty darn good fro rain. It looks like Barry's radar when he first began moving north. IT's very cloudy here and the humidity is at 90% again. These clouds are holding the temps in the mid 70's. Even if we dont get the rain from the south, I think we may get a seabreeze here on the westcoast today.

[TexLady]

Ohhhh believe me I plan on stocking up on the Dramamine/Bonine. Hmmmm...I wonder what would be the appropriate liquor accompaniment for Bonine? Tequila, Corona or Bloody Mary? I'm doing some major "-removed-" for smooth sailing. Seriously, I really appreciate all the hard work and opinions offered here at Storm2k. All of the knowledgeable people around here give me a significant "heads up" on weather related events. Thank You!

[DrewFL]

I'm not sure where to post this. So it's going here:


SRN STREAM UPR TROF OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NAM IS TOO DRY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND STRETCHING
SWWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. 12Z RAOB DATA SUGGESTS THE NAM
INITIALIZED PWATS ARE UP TO 0.4 INCHES TOO LOW ACRS SRN LA. RAOB
DATA AND GOES-SOUNDER PW DATA SUGGESTS THE NAM IS UP TO 0.25 OF AN
INCH TOO LOW ACRS COASTAL AREAS OF SRN TX AND INTO THE ADJACENT
WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NAM ALSO APPEARS TOO WEAK AT H5 IN
DEPICTING A VORT MAXIMA OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...CENTERED IN
WV IMAGERY NR 25.5N AND 92.5W. THIS ENERGY IS INFLUENCING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CTRL/ERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...GOES
HIGH DENSITY WIND PLOTS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SUGGEST A MORE
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AROUND H3 THAN WHAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED.
THE CONVECTIVE V-SIGNATURE IN IR SAT IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS
CONCLUSION.

THE NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS ENERGY ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THRU 36 HRS AND THEN SUGGESTS POSSIBLE H5 CLSD LOW
DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE BAHAMAS THEREAFTER VS A BROADER AND FLATTER
UPR TROF LIKE THE 00Z RUN HAD.

ORRISON

[Berwick Bay]

Since I'm forecasting development in the mid to late next week time frame in the Gulf (June 13th - June 16th), perhaps its time to take another quick look at the whats going on. First read this from the NHC Discussion.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED TO THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THIS TROUGH
IS 30N80W...IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT PART OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THREE AREAS OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH. TWO AREAS COVER THE WATERS FROM 24N TO
26N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W...AND THE OTHER ONE IS FROM 29N TO 30N
BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN
MOST AREAS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH COMBINES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WEST OF A PUERTO RICO-TO-GUAJIRA PENINSULA IN NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA LINE. THE ACTUAL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY NEAR 16N87W AT THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS

Now two points. They mention the trough in the Gulf "possibly extending deeper into the Gulf" than maybe at first thought. South of 30N. I think thats true. Its important, because it portends a better situation for development next week, as the trough moves out. Second point. As the trough begins to move out (maybe over the weekend), a more conducive area for development will arise in the western Gulf (I think). See what the discussion says about the "anti-cyclonic" flow in the NW Carribean. Its been there for days. But as the trough in the E Gulf moves out, I think the W Gulf and NW Carib will both have upper level high pressure conditions (good for development). As I said Monday, those persistent storms at Belize will spread to the northern Yucutan Coast. Look for organization to begin as the system drifts out into the W Central Gulf, with develoment about 150 miles NW of the NW tip of the Yucutan. One more point. See the post prior to this one. Its got a lot of complicated meteorology speak in it. But I did pick this up. The forecast for next week is that the jet stream in the Gulf will not be so flat or so zonal. This is more positive for development. There will be a more serious demarcation line between the retreating trough and the oncoming High. Creating that classic wave effect with stable air aloft in complete charge over the Western Gulf. With the showers now present in Belize look for spreading positive conditions over the Yucutan and then NW of there (as I have been saying all along).

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see where you get the idea of the trough lifting out of the Gulf next week, this pattern has been pretty much holding its own now for a month, if anything it is likely that it gets reinforced next week looking at long range model runs and the pattern of late. If anything we could see another area of disturbed weather coming up from the NW Carib. much like the set up for Barry, crossing the peninsula of Florida and possibly further south and over into the Bahamas. I see a high and dry western GOM next week.

[skysummit]

This is going to be great to see who wins out....instinct or guidance.

[HouTXmetro]

I don't see where you get the idea of the trough lifting out of the Gulf next week, this pattern has been pretty much holding its own now for a month, if anything it is likely that it gets reinforced next week looking at long range model runs and the pattern of late. If anything we could see another area of disturbed weather coming up from the NW Carib. much like the set up for Barry, crossing the peninsula of Florida and possibly further south and over into the Bahamas. I see a high and dry western GOM next week.

Well our local forecasters are predicting a massive High Ridge to slide from the Gulf northwestward into Texas...

[Berwick Bay]

I don't see where you get the idea of the trough lifting out of the Gulf next week, this pattern has been pretty much holding its own now for a month, if anything it is likely that it gets reinforced next week looking at long range model runs and the pattern of late. If anything we could see another area of disturbed weather coming up from the NW Carib. much like the set up for Barry, crossing the peninsula of Florida and possibly further south and over into the Bahamas. I see a high and dry western GOM next week.

Well Dean, I have to disagree with your statement "that the pattern has been holding its own for a month". Remember the lack of rain in May in Fl?? I'm sure you lived through it. At that time Fl was being dominated by High Pressure Ridging in from the Atlantic (not troughing). That changed as a new trough from the Plains did dive down into the Gulf. As I forecast back then, that trough picked up a newly forming tropical system (at the deepest end of the trough) and brought it up over Fl. That trough is still basically in place over Fl and was reinforced somewhat in the next few days. But remember we're only talking a week or so here (not months). That same trough that picked up Barry (Mayflower) WILL shift east (they all do). If I'm right, the shift east will begin taking place this weekend. Meanwhile upper level ridging will spread from Mexico into the Gulf and MOST IMPORTANTLY, it will merge with the upper level High now over Belize. The merger should tend to cause a flow sending the storms near Belize on a W then NW track toward the NW tip of the Yucutan with a continued drift NW into the West Central Gulf. Their should be enough residual moisture coming up from the Carribean and Mexico to create positive conditions for tropical storm formation underneath that VERY WELL ESTABLISHED upper level high extending from the NW Carribean and into the Gulf. Looking for development near 24N and 92 W or perhaps a little south of there (aprox 150 miles NW of the NW tip of the Yucutan).

[tailgater]

This site shows the troughs pretty well, and you can form your on opinion on whether the Upper Trough will be lifting out.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... -vor1.html
Click on the 200mb button and 5 day movie.

I'm not sure if has any significance yet or not but the pressures have been dropping in the western GOM and BOC.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't see where you get the idea of the trough lifting out of the Gulf next week, this pattern has been pretty much holding its own now for a month, if anything it is likely that it gets reinforced next week looking at long range model runs and the pattern of late. If anything we could see another area of disturbed weather coming up from the NW Carib. much like the set up for Barry, crossing the peninsula of Florida and possibly further south and over into the Bahamas. I see a high and dry western GOM next week.

Well our local forecasters are predicting a massive High Ridge to slide from the Gulf northwestward into Texas...

yes they are. Here is the HGX discussion from earlier...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007/

DISCUSSION...500MB RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND
ACROSS EAST TEXAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPING A LID ON RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION
A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO ADVECT
INTO THE CWA MONDAY BUT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE
FROM THE EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WEAKENS AND BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS PER THE 12Z GFS. 32

..looks like a ridge of high pressure will indeed be developing over the next few days.

[Stormcenter]

If it were August or maybe even late July I would be concerned about possible development in the GOM but
early June, I not worried until I see formation. We had an early storm in June last year and everyone
was worried that we would have storms popping up left and right in the GOM, I just don't see that happening right
now anytime soon based conditions in the GOM for next few weeks if not longer. just my 2 cents.

[Frank2]

For certain, there is more than enough shear at this time to limit development...

On the other hand, it'd be nice to have many days of rainy weather (also helps to keep the temps down - Miami had a high of 94 on Tuesday with clear skies, but, only had a high in the 70s during yesterdays rain)...

[HouTXmetro]

Shear doesn't look to bad in the Western Gulf.

[Sjones]

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE CONVECTION IN THE ERN GULF HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CLIPPING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS.
LEFTOVER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO
THE WRN ATLC. DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT IS IN PLACE IN THE WRN
GULF W OF 91W. THE W PORTION OF AN ATLC SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER
THE GULF AND LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MODERATE S TO SE WINDS...STRONGEST WRN PORTION WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE HIGH WILL BUILD W OVER THE
NE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
OVERALL FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE BASIN. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE
FLARED UP AGAIN IN THE SW CARIBBEAN JUST OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA. UPPER FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC OVER MOST OF THE
BASIN AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
MODERATELY DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION...WHERE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF EXISTS. MOISTURE
IS ALSO BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR SE PORTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES
DOMINATE THE BASIN...BENDING MORE SE IN THE NW PORTION AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC RIDGE NE OF THE AREA. THE TRADES ARE
CARRYING TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISOLATED SHOWERS
WWD ACROSS THE BASIN...MOST CONCENTRATED S OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.



Looks like BB's prediction is coming true...

[Wx_Warrior]

Barry...You are batting .500, 1-for-2.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see where you get the idea of the trough lifting out of the Gulf next week, this pattern has been pretty much holding its own now for a month, if anything it is likely that it gets reinforced next week looking at long range model runs and the pattern of late. If anything we could see another area of disturbed weather coming up from the NW Carib. much like the set up for Barry, crossing the peninsula of Florida and possibly further south and over into the Bahamas. I see a high and dry western GOM next week.

Well Dean, I have to disagree with your statement "that the pattern has been holding its own for a month". Remember the lack of rain in May in Fl?? I'm sure you lived through it. At that time Fl was being dominated by High Pressure Ridging in from the Atlantic (not troughing). That changed as a new trough from the Plains did dive down into the Gulf. As I forecast back then, that trough picked up a newly forming tropical system (at the deepest end of the trough) and brought it up over Fl. That trough is still basically in place over Fl and was reinforced somewhat in the next few days. But remember we're only talking a week or so here (not months). That same trough that picked up Barry (Mayflower) WILL shift east (they all do). If I'm right, the shift east will begin taking place this weekend. Meanwhile upper level ridging will spread from Mexico into the Gulf and MOST IMPORTANTLY, it will merge with the upper level High now over Belize. The merger should tend to cause a flow sending the storms near Belize on a W then NW track toward the NW tip of the Yucutan with a continued drift NW into the West Central Gulf. Their should be enough residual moisture coming up from the Carribean and Mexico to create positive conditions for tropical storm formation underneath that VERY WELL ESTABLISHED upper level high extending from the NW Carribean and into the Gulf. Looking for development near 24N and 92 W or perhaps a little south of there (aprox 150 miles NW of the NW tip of the Yucutan).

I was talking about the UL trough that has covered much of the east, I know all too well that we have had a surface high locked in. The UL trough is what tore Barry asunder. We'll just have to wait and see who is right. I don't see what you are calling for occurring next week.

[Berwick Bay]

Basically, I have been calling for the development of stable upper level conditions in the Western Half of the Gulf of Mexico. When I made my initial forecast 3 and 1/2 days ago, the Gulf was very hostile to development. Dean, you might as well be the first to know that on the material level, my forecasts are based more than anything else on what I think upper level conditions will be. Now, I believe that shear is lessening and upper level conditions are improving markedly in the W Central Gulf. But there is still a problem, a source of moisture. My thinking was that the persistent moisture from near Belize would work its way north to the North Coast of the Yucutan. But that seems less likely now. However, I'm not totally ruling it out. But I am seeing something interesting. Several of you (especially Fl posters) are taking a look at the Bahamas. This weather is situated along an "old trough boundary" established several weeks ago. Obviously, I don't expect any develoment here or near Fl at this time. BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE (TROPICAL IMPULSES) FROM THIS OLD BOUNDARY ARE BEGINNING TO MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FL AND INTO THE SE GULF. I'M BEGINNING TO SUSPECT THAT THE MOISTURE SOURCE FOR THE WESTERN GULF (NOT EASTERN) MAY BE PROVIDED FROM THESE PULSES OR WAVES IF YOU WILL. IN THAT CASE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP (AND I STRONGLY BELIEVE THIS) ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCUTAN, WITH DEVELOPMENT NORTHWEST OF THERE NEAR 24N AND 92W. BEGIN TO LOOK FOR T-STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE YUCUTAN CHANNEL( BYSATURDAY) DRIFTING GENERALLY WEST AND THEN BEGINNING TO CONGREGATE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE N YUCUTAN COAST. AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARRIBEAN AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF, SHOULD TAKE THESE STORM IN A LITTLE MORE NW DIRECTION TO ABOUT 150 MILES NW OF THE NW TIP OF THE YUCUTAN. I LOOK FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION HERE BETWEEN JUNE 13TH AND JUNE 16th. Now I talked about the upper levels being the foundation for my material views concerning tropical cyclone formation. But my forecast is also based on other "less material" factors. These factors are even more important to me than the material. You see, often I have to follow the lead of what I know intuitively. So sometimes I don't really know all of the wherefore's of a forecast (with the possible exception of the upper level conditions), but I do respect what I know intuitively. Dean, would you do me a favor. As you probably know, I don't base any forecast on computer models (models don't seem to be able to pick up on what I know intuitively 10-14 days in advance. However, I feel fairly certain that as we get closer to the June 13th-June 16th time frame that some of the models will finally begin to pick up on formation of a low pressure system NW of the Yucutan, as I've been saying now since Mon. I would really appreciate it if you could pass any info like that on to me.

[bubbamills]

Berwick, based on what you have seen into the future air currents. If your system does occur at 24N and 92W where will this storm go?

[Berwick Bay]

Bubba, I just don't want to say right now. You know as well as I how difficult a forecast like this is, (forecasting tropical storm formation at a given area, within a given time frame 9-12 days in advance is basically unheard of. I do sense some general tendencies (if you read my post "The Maiden" you might be able to intuit what I mean), but there's no sense forecasting a track for a storm that has yet to appear in the physical world. I will wait for the spirit of "Chantal" to begin to "condense" and become tangible before making a forecast like that.

[Stormcenter]

Bubba, I just don't want to say right now. You know as well as I how difficult a forecast like this is, (forecasting tropical storm formation at a given area, within a given time frame 9-12 days in advance is basically unheard of. I do sense some general tendencies (if you read my post "The Maiden" you might be able to intuit what I mean), but there's no sense forecasting a track for a storm that has yet to appear in the physical world. I will wait for the spirit of "Chantal" to begin to "condense" and become tangible before making a forecast like that.

I'm curious, are you a Met or studying to be one?

Anyway, I'll be the first to commend you if something does develop per your prediction but
I just don't see it in the cards right now.