African wave IS a player - 93L Invest

[philnyc]

Perhaps, though I find it unlikely, this wave can redevelop some convection in the upcoming days. The water is conceivably warm enough, given the low latitude of the wave. I wonder, though, whether the two waves in june that became short lived tropical depressions (in 2000 and 2003) died off their convection upon hitting the water, and reformed it later, or whether their convective structure remained relatively intact.

Here's a link to the NHC history of TD02 in 2003:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003two.shtml?
The recaps on most of them are pretty thorough, as you can see from that one.

You can get a lot of great info in this archive. Here's the general link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml

[philnyc]

Shame to have such insightful intelligent commentary constantly dumbed down by the word 'poof'. How about we call Tropical Storms, "big white fluffy spinny things".

What would you prefer to call it? Nothing really needs to be said about these systems besides they are all doomed for atleast another few weeks. The ocean can't sustain the convection, so they go "poof". How about dissipate, would that be better?

I consider myself a serious meteorologist, but I think "poof" is pretty funny actually. As long as the overall content of the reply is scientifically sound, I think we shouldn't worry too much about it. I wouldn't put it in a submission to the Monthly Weather Review, though, if I were you!

BTW, the SSTs aren't the only reason these waves and lows haven't much of a chance in June. There's also usually a lot of very strong westerly shear out there, as the middle latitude troughs still push pretty deeply towards the equator until July or August.

Lastly, it seems like the SSTs are actually at or above 26C already at about 10 degrees, so a low could intensify here if there was enough mid level moisture and low shear. So it's not out of the question at all for a wave or low to periodically flare up some convection out there this early in our 2007 season.

Here's the SSTs:

[fci]

I find it interesting that 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlooks are published at 4:00 PM!

[HURAKAN]

I fully understand that for new members the word "poof" and its derivatives "poofing, poofed, etc" is not very scientific, nonetheless, old members know very the well the meaning of the term "poof" when refering to a tropical system, especially a disturbance. It just means that the system looks to be dissipating based on the fact that the convective pattern is very disorganized and that the intensity of the convection is weak. It's just like in math when you have a big equations and to make it easier, you substitute some of the variables by letters.

When a system is intensifying I always say " the roller coaster is going up," when it's weakening, "the roller coaster is going down." There's no scientific value there, just symbolism.

[HURAKAN]

I find it interesting that 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlooks are published at 4:00 PM!

Usually when we don't have an active sytem, the TWO is done much earlier. Nevertheless, 4 PM is quite early!!! I guess they wanted dinner early today.

[AnnularCane]

I fully understand that for new members the word "poof" and its derivatives "poofing, pooked, etc" is not very scientific, nonetheless, old members know very the well the meaning of the term "poof" when refering to a tropical system, especially a disturbance. It just means that the system looks to be dissipating based on the fact that the convective pattern is very disorganized and that the intensity of the convection is weak. It's just like in math when you have a big equations and to make it easier, you substitute some of the variables by letters.

Pooked?

[HURAKAN]

I fully understand that for new members the word "poof" and its derivatives "poofing, pooked, etc" is not very scientific, nonetheless, old members know very the well the meaning of the term "poof" when refering to a tropical system, especially a disturbance. It just means that the system looks to be dissipating based on the fact that the convective pattern is very disorganized and that the intensity of the convection is weak. It's just like in math when you have a big equations and to make it easier, you substitute some of the variables by letters.

Pooked?

I meant, poofed. But I have heard "pooked" before when refering to a dissipating system.

[dixiebreeze]

Excerpt 8:05 NHC:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

STRONG WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE FOR EARLY JUNE WHICH WAS ADDED
TO THE 12Z SFC ANALYSIS IS CURRENTLY ALONG 16W S OF 15N. THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND A 1942 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
SUGGESTS A LOW PRES CENTER ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 8N WITH AN
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. IN ADDITION...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM SENEGAL AND GUINEA INDICATE A SECOND LOW
CENTER...1008 MB AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE NEAR DAKAR.
BASED ON THE LAST 6-12 HOURS OF MOTION THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE CONSISTS OF WELL DEFINED LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG BANDED DEEP CONVECTION MAINTAINING ITSELF NEAR THE
ESTIMATED LOW LEVEL CENTER.

[windstorm99]

Interesting....

[AtlanticWind]

Convection now refiring http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Sto ... est_ir.jpg

[DESTRUCTION5]

June or not that Cyclonic turning is simply impressive...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... cjava.html

[abajan]

No matter how impressive it looks now, it'll run into cooler, less favorable conditions in a few days time.

[windstorm99]

No matter how impressive it looks now, it'll run into cooler, less favorable conditions in a few days time.

Actually SST wise those are warm enough to sustian a tropical system.Also upper level winds look pretty favorable in its path.

Windshear map 96hrs out...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Forget what I said above, this is now 93L. This has developed more convection near its center. I will look at the data to see how developed it is.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[windstorm99]

Here we go again folks!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Forget what I said above, this is now 93L. This has developed more convection near its center. I will look at the data to see how developed it is.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

The overall wind shear over the Eastern Atlantic is way below normal. Also this system is moving around 20 knots...Which is slightly fast, but much slower then the 25-27 knots these systems normallly go. I would watch for some development if it stays south of 12.

[Derecho]

No matter how impressive it looks now, it'll run into cooler, less favorable conditions in a few days time.

Pretty much every model has screaming shear which doesn't move around 45W.

That said, it's several days before it's there.

[Cyclenall]

This is quite something. It's already a invest and it's one of the best looking waves off Africa I've seen...and it's early June. The fact some pro mets are even considering the idea this does have a chance (even a small one) is surprising.

[dixiebreeze]

Season is ramping up early and I wouldn't be too surprised to see more activity from the S. Caribbean flare-up.

[Aric Dunn]

here are a couple decent loops.. they update faster every hour or so .. on this one .. also this one sectors 4 and 5 will give close ups but kind of cut in half .. but watch sector 4 in the upcoming day or so http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls