South Caribbean firing

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well if the NAM wouldn't mind I'd like it to give me some
of that pot and let me smoke it...
haha just kidding...

[Aric Dunn]

12Z nam is really aggressive...taking the broad low in this area down
to 1000 mb.

Actually it takes it to 995 mb...before a bit of filling

oh wow...I didn't see that 995 mark....yea that would be almost a hurricane

But then again, the NAM could be smoking pot this morning....

The NAM IS ALWAYS smoking pot....it is extremely inaccurate and should not be used to help predict tropical weather....it is not a TROPICAL based model...

actaully i have found the nam to be helpful for one reason..
it has a tendency to be precursor sometimes.... almost every time something forms the NAM at some point well before it does will show something.. i agree its mostly wrong on intensity and track but it does seem to always pick up on things..
so anyway i only use it as a reference .. for instance the past few day.. the NAM has not showed much of anything at all in the Carrib only recently it has starting showing something.. and what has happened.. we we have lots of convection down there and a couple more models have been hinting at something forming down there.... i.e nogaps.. and now the gfs and even UKmet shows a little..

so when the NAM shows nothing i really dont pay much attention to anything else.i will check the rest of the models but 9 times out of 10 they will show nothing either.. but when the nam starts showing something formidable as in the case of the 12z run today .. now i pay more attention to the rest of the models..



now given the others models do not use the data from the NAM so there is no correlation between them it is purely something I watch as a possible HINT at things to come

hope that makes sense...

i know its seems like i pay more attention to the NAM .. but i really dont..

[boca]

Isn't the NAM used for mid latitude systems rather than tropical systems.

[Aric Dunn]

Isn't the NAM used for mid latitude systems rather than tropical systems.

NAM stands for the North American Mesoscale model. Previously known as the Eta model, it was renamed on 1/25/05. On 6/20/06, the NAM was converted from using Eta physics to WRF (Weather Research Forecast) model physics.

[windstorm99]

The NAM should not be used for the tropics.

[boca]

I was interested in knowing if the NAM was designed for tropical weather or mid latitude winter type storms.

[drezee]

If you have never seen over a foot of rain poured on a mountain island in a short period of time before...take a look at Jamaica for the next 6 hours!

[Aric Dunn]

The NAM should not be used for the tropics.

in general no it should not... especially for a actual tropical cyclone!! but as for seeing if it want to develop a area of LOW pressure .. sure take a look at it .. watch it with the other models and compare the NAM and the other models... and after years of doing that you can find certain uses for the NAM ...

so i ask you .. why are you so adamant about disregarding the NAM? i agree with you completely about not using for a tropical cyclone but like i said for just overall patterns a developments of areas of low pressure sure ... dont just say something because you heard it from everyone else that the nam is not useful, i know a lot of Pro mets that use it the same as i do and some that just disregard it( they just dont use it the same ) i use it for other reason..

[boca]

In the NAM defense it did sniff out Barry a few days before it developed and it was consistant for a week on that senario panning out.

[drezee]

In the NAM defense it did sniff out Barry a few days before it developed and it was consistant for a week on that senario panning out.

true,but the NAM only goes out 84 hours...that, my friend, is the problem...

[boca]

True good point didn't think about that one ,but it was consistant. They need to modify that model passed 3 1/2 days.

[Aric Dunn]

In the NAM defense it did sniff out Barry a few days before it developed and it was consistant for a week on that senario panning out.

true,but the NAM only goes out 84 hours...that, my friend, is the problem...

your going to have to explain your reasoning on that statement..

[boca]

Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think this system will continue to move NNE in the short term because of the circulation around the ULL. Once the ULL moves farther west it might develop or build south of there and move north because the high over Florida is not that strong to keep to supressed to the south. I think the whole area will move generally northward and hopefuuly give Florida another rain event. I don't think it will develop more than a rain maker at the moment.

[drezee]

In the NAM defense it did sniff out Barry a few days before it developed and it was consistant for a week on that senario panning out.

true,but the NAM only goes out 84 hours...that, my friend, is the problem...

your going to have to explain your reasoning on that statement..

Who has to explain what?

[Incident_MET]

In defense of BOCA and the NAM the NAM did do a better job early on near initialzation of Barry and 48 hour movement near Florida with the somewhat northern track. GFS was having convective feedback problems during this time. Interesting to note the cold tops on this storm cluster are holding and the positioning WRT to the departing upper trough is currently favorable. Well see what happens.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I hope it brings heavy rain to florida!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

In the NAM defense it did sniff out Barry a few days before it developed and it was consistant for a week on that senario panning out.

true,but the NAM only goes out 84 hours...that, my friend, is the problem...

your going to have to explain your reasoning on that statement..

Who has to explain what?

sorry im not sure what you mean by that it only goes out 84 hour and that being the problem

[miamicanes177]

for the record I continue to call for this to become hurricane Chantal.

[Aric Dunn]

In defense of BOCA and the NAM the NAM did do a better job early on near initialzation of Barry and 48 hour movement near Florida with the somewhat northern track. GFS was having convective feedback problems during this time. Interesting to note the cold tops on this storm cluster are holding and the positioning WRT to the departing upper trough is currently favorable. Well see what happens.

exactly.. the nam can be useful in the tropics in some cases .. and should not be disregarded without checking all the data available.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

for the record I continue to call for this to become hurricane Chantal.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I call for at least a Tropical Storm Chantal...there is very heavy moisture and convection...
right now it should move over cuba next couple of days and then get trapped under
a ridge of high pressure that will keep it near the bahamas...
and allow for development...
Does anyone see this ridge? I'm not entirely sure
if it will materialize.
Now if it does...with the model support,
the ridge reducing shear, the warm ssts, and
plenty of moisture I expect a possible
tropical storm chantal out of this mess.