Atlantic INVEST 93L: W Africa

[Weatherfreak000]

It seems you don't see this highly likely to become anything, Derek?


In any case, if a Depression forms tomorrow and it later becomes a TS, 2007 takes the record for the fastest "C" storm formation in recorded history.

[vaffie]

Anyone know if any of the global models keep it alive through 120 hours?

[miamicanes177]

This is not that uncommon

What is uncommon is if this becomes Chantal sunday it will make 2007 the benchmark for the fastest to 3 named storms. That is a 120 year old record. Quite uncommon.

[Aric Dunn]

almost any year, there are a couple of well defined disturbances right off of Africa this time of year.

They really die out once they reach 30W

I don't know man....fruit is growing on trees....this one could be the real deal.

lol ... that was classic.. hhahahah ..

[btangy]

If you look at the satellite carefully, you'll notice that there are patches of stratocumulus ahead of the system. Stratocumulus only forms in stable environments (cool SSTs and subsiding air). As the NHC noted in their outlook, conditions are unfavorable ahead of the system both in terms of stability and wind shear... a double whammy. What i would keep an eye on is this system ~7 days down the road when it enters the W Caribbean.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Latest sat pic of the tropical disturbance as of 0323Z

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone know if any of the global models keep it alive through 120 hours?

i posted the only models that i could find on it .. and to answer your question.. at least in general .. the few models that are running right.. do keep it at least an entity have not seen intensity yet but its way way to early to be worrying about the models

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

oh here .. intensity.. lol the only thing graphically short of raw data.. that you dont want to look at. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[canetracker]

This is certainly one of the most organized storms I can remember, coming off the coast of Africa, in June. What a beauty!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This system looks very organized to me, nice MLC at least. We will see what the next quickscat and t numbers have it...But this is on its way to becoming something, at least at the moment.

[Aric Dunn]

300z image and loop... http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls

[vaffie]

Thanks AD.

[Aric Dunn]

if you notice the well defined .. low level banding on that loop especially the last few images

although that little ball of convection being interesting and all .. its not that impressive yet.. needs more.. but it seems to be getting larger.. too early to tell need more time

[sevenleft]

GFS appears to lose it pretty quickly. Euro keeps it alive as a weak surface feature for a couple days. I didn't check anything else.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Dry air/SAL appears to be moving out of the way. It doe's not seem any worst then any other August SAL through out the East Atlantic. Also shear is 12-15 knots, so not super favorable.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[Aric Dunn]

Dry air/SAL appears to be moving out of the way. It doe's not seem any worst then any other August SAL through out the East Atlantic. Also shear is 12-15 knots, so not super favorable.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

in addition its actually in quite a moist envelope !! sal is not a major player if the system dies .....

it would be cooler water to its north ... if it moves north.. if it can make it to about 30 w and then start to turn.. it will stay over warm enough water... otherwise it would have to survive somehow.. 78 to 79 degree water.. for a day or 2 before it gets back over warm enough water..

[pegasus2]

there it is the 1030 TWO

269
ABNT20 KNHC 100201
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING... AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND COOLER WATER
TEMPERATURES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

That means a 20% chance if Jeff Masters is correct
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200706

[Aric Dunn]

there it is the 1030 TWO

269
ABNT20 KNHC 100201
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING... AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND COOLER WATER
TEMPERATURES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

That means a 20% chance if Jeff Masters is correct
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200706

thats interesting .... i like that...

[Aric Dunn]

Here is the zoomed in NRL animation NRL anim

[Derek Ortt]

doesn't matter if this is classified as a storm or not in the grand scheme of things.

I will not get concerned until a circ survives past 50W, escaping the CA zone of death which is common this time of year

[Aric Dunn]

doesn't matter if this is classified as a storm or not in the grand scheme of things.

I will not get concerned until a circ survives past 50W, escaping the CA zone of death which is common this time of year

concerned about what .. landfall some where.. if its classified . its classified.. ?? what concern are you talking about

so if its has a circ before 50 west and is classified... you wont be concerned.. becasue? it wont survive past that or ....