Reading the Signs in Tropical Waters

['CaneFreak]

You know...we have had this discussion in years past...and when it boilded down between making a choice between the pro-mets and a few voices who couldn't get along with them...it wasn't us that got placed elsewhere.

Who are the people paying the bills to keep this site going? It's the people's board. And my paypal payment will be coming soon!

Lets just get one thing straight...you dont HAVE to pay the bills to keep this site going now do you??? Just wanted to get that straight....this came up in another rant and rave that was going on last week...no offense...glad you support the site....but it is not REQUIRED OF YOU...

[tpr1967]

Well that stinks can't voice your opinion around here lol. Just seems that the pro mets think they are the greatest and no body has an opinion. Thats sad i will stop posting and continue to read these controlled posts.

[Stratosphere747]

Bottom line, it comes down to the integrity of the board. If the pros and even the more knowledgeable amateurs are not allowed to note flaws and such in a forecast be it pro or amateur, than the value of the board is tarnished.

The point is that many are here to learn and gain viable information. One must question what appears to be a skewed forecast, or represents conditions that are not occurring, so there has to be some type of rebuttal. Many times over the last few years when people see what they want to see, and AFM, 57 or any of the other participating pros call them on it, a certain group within the board can't take it. Are the pros wrong? Of course they are, ask many about ol Ernie last year. Fact is they are far more correct when they do point out what we THINK we see, and what IS taking place.

Taking the stance that another board would be better suited for them is a lost cause, unless of course you are not here to learn tropical dynamics.

['CaneFreak]

EVERYBODY STOP!!!!!! LETS GET BACK TO TROPICAL WEATHER!!!! IF WE NEED TO CALL IN A MODERATOR TO LOCK THE THREAD, THEN WE WILL...

[psyclone]

those of us who are veterans of another board can recall another stormy berwick bay tenure there that plunged that board into total chaos. I recall similar hypersensitivity, excessive posting and a forecast "model" that took every storm to louisiana (specifically pecan island). this stormy episode ended when hurricane stan didn't find his way to louisiana. this won't end well. as yogi berra once said "it's deja vu all over again."

[Jam151]

Well that stinks can't voice your opinion around here lol. Just seems that the pro mets think they are the greatest and no body has an opinion. Thats sad i will stop posting and continue to read these controlled posts.

Well i'm an ameteur and can see exactly where the pros are coming from. It's fine for anyone to make a forecast, but at least try to back it up with some scientific merit. If the forecaster's reasoning defies certain scientific laws then I think it's best, for the boards integrity, to have the pros point out the problems. That's how all of us started learning about this stuff to begin with.

[sevenleft]

those of us who are veterans of another board can recall another stormy berwick bay tenure there that plunged that board into total chaos. I recall similar hypersensitivity, excessive posting and a forecast "model" that took every storm to louisiana (specifically pecan island). this stormy episode ended when hurricane stan didn't find his way to louisiana. this won't end well. as yogi berra once said "it's deja vu all over again."

Wonderful. Thanks for the warning...

[Air Force Met]

Well that stinks can't voice your opinion around here lol. Just seems that the pro mets think they are the greatest and no body has an opinion. Thats sad i will stop posting and continue to read these controlled posts.

Wrong. Nobody has EVER said you cannot have an opinion on this board. I have been here 4 years...and this is as far from the truth as can be. Opinions are encouraged...as are a free exchange of ideas.

With that being said...and as has been established on this board for years...1) Not all opinions carry equal weight (that has to be earned) and 2) If you have an opinion...BE PREPARED to defend it with facts....sometimes vigorously...and you need to remember it is a board...so don't get your feelings hurt.

It has been well established here that if you have an opinion that is a guess...you say it is a guess and leave it as that. If you make a forecast...whether you are an amatuer or pro-met...then be prepared to support it with facts...and be prepared to defend it in a debate with people who may disagree.

A gut feeling or opinion is one thing...and that is not what we are talking about here...we are talking about a "forecast." That puts it out there for critique. If you can't stand for people to swing at it...don't throw it over the plate. This is not the kind of site where you can just throw any insane idea around without any rebuttal...like giant tubes off the coast of Florida cooling the waters...or giant mirrors in space to keep the oceans cool during hurricane season. Yes...we had that discussion previously...and when pro-mets and engineers pointed out errors...the poster got all bent out of shape. Should we have allowed those opinions to go forward unchallenged because "everyone is entitled to their opinion?" I think not.

If you can't stand the heat...don't go near the kitchen.

[sevenleft]

guys don't look now but the 18z run of the gfs shows some signs of surface low pressure forming in the area BB says it would around the 16th of june.

Yeah. Brings a wave through the carribbean and into the GOM. Develops a weak surface reflection up to 850mb. Nothing above that. An ULL on the 15th/16th gives way to strong westerlies (30-50kts) over the northern half of the GOM through the timeframe.

[Air Force Met]

those of us who are veterans of another board can recall another stormy berwick bay tenure there that plunged that board into total chaos. I recall similar hypersensitivity, excessive posting and a forecast "model" that took every storm to louisiana (specifically pecan island). this stormy episode ended when hurricane stan didn't find his way to louisiana. this won't end well. as yogi berra once said "it's deja vu all over again."

I had a feeling that was the case by what another poster said. The comment was edited out but I saw it before it got zapped. Something about not going down this road again...

Does that sound familiar?

[wxmann_91]

Did anybody actually read tpr1967's post before it was deleted? I assume that if the OT thread did some good, you will be getting a PM on why it was deleted, tpr. Not sure if that's the reason why tpr is talking about opinions and posts. But not all opinions are welcome - those bashing others are most certainly not.

['CaneFreak]

Did anybody actually read tpr1967's post before it was deleted? I assume that if the OT thread did some good, you will be getting a PM on why it was deleted, tpr. Not sure if that's the reason why tpr is talking about opinions and posts. But not all opinions are welcome - those bashing others are most certainly not.

THANK YOU....NOW BACK TO THE TROPICS...MAYBE

[Air Force Met]

Did anybody actually read tpr1967's post before it was deleted? I assume that if the OT thread did some good, you will be getting a PM on why it was deleted, tpr. Not sure if that's the reason why tpr is talking about opinions and posts. But not all opinions are welcome - those bashing others are most certainly not.

I read it. It was one of those moments I decided it was best not to respond to it because then mine would have been deleted...

['CaneFreak]

guys don't look now but the 18z run of the gfs shows some signs of surface low pressure forming in the area BB says it would around the 16th of june.

Yeah. Brings a wave through the carribbean and into the GOM. Develops a weak surface reflection up to 850mb. Nothing above that. An ULL on the 15th/16th gives way to strong westerlies (30-50kts) over the northern half of the GOM through the timeframe.

Correct...I agree...upper level winds are always an issue this time of year....remember...it is only JUNE 10...NOT AUGUST 10th....

[vbhoutex]

This last post just saved this thread. If it even attempts to head back towards the last two pages or so it will be locked and taken off the board. STAY ON TOPIC!!!!!

[Air Force Met]

This last post just saved this thread. If it even attempts to head back towards the last two pages or so it will be locked and taken off the board. STAY ON TOPIC!!!!!

We were on topic.

The first post is about the Mokan people reading signs...so since that certainly can't be the topic...it has to be the topic/debate about whether we follow scientific facts for forecasting...or use some sort of metaphysical blend. That has been what the arguements have generally raged around....and if the first post in a thread sets the tone what the topic, then that is the topic...it certainly isn't about anything currently in the tropics now...or forecasted to be there.

Matter of fact...speaking about the "forecast" or anything currently in the tropics would actually be going off-topic and away from the Mokan people and the spiritual method of forecasting...

hehehe

['CaneFreak]

This last post just saved this thread. If it even attempts to head back towards the last two pages or so it will be locked and taken off the board. STAY ON TOPIC!!!!!

We were on topic.

The first post is about the Mokan people reading signs...so since that certainly can't be the topic...it has to be the topic/debate about whether we follow scientific facts for forecasting...or use some sort of metaphysical blend. That has been what the arguements have generally raged around....and if the first post in a thread sets the tone what the topic, then that is the topic...it certainly isn't about anything currently in the tropics now...or forecasted to be there.

Matter of fact...speaking about the "forecast" or anything currently in the tropics would actually be going off-topic and away from the Mokan people and the spiritual method of forecasting...

hehehe

[Toadstool]

This article was kind of interesting, though not really a good way to predict hurricanes... not enough lead time. The most interesting part of the article to me was:

While sharks fled the area, migratory birds may have delayed their flight through Florida until the hurricanes passed.

Fred Griffin, a Broward County birder, said it appeared that birds waited until October, very late in the season to head south into Florida.

"Once the hurricanes got through, it seemed like the migration really started," he said. "You have to figure they were hanging around and waiting for the atmosphere to clear out."


*link*

[MGC]

While driving along HWY-90 along the Mississippi Gulf Coast while evacuating for Katrina, we noticed an absence of sea birds. They had left before we did. Katrina hit about 24 hours later.......MGC

['CaneFreak]

interesting