Still Watching Yucutan

[Berwick Bay]

Thanks Tolkram and Jagno for the kind words. But you wanna know what the really brutal part is? I'm still looking at the Yucutan!!! I can't or won't let this go until the 17th or 18th, I guess! Even though, I've been told, and I've been around this game long enough to know that ULL's normally take days (and days) to work their way down to the surface, I continue to zoom in on the northern Yucutan Coast. Part of it is that, I did foresee the eventual storm as coming off of this coast (not the penninsula as a whole), but off this coast. Well right now storms are lining up along the coast, and are concentrating in particular off the NW Point of the Penninsula. This is exactly the "picture" which I "saw" when I gave my long range 9-12 day forecast. With that happening I can't just let it go, even though logic says that its almost hopeless.

[Air Force Met]

yea...that's what I don't get either. Shear is actually lower than normal for this time of the year. We can't expect near perfect conditions this early in the season. All in all, I'd say the basin is doing pretty good.

What's normal? Normal is just the average of the highs and the lows observed. There have been plenty of times when the shear over the GOM was a lot lower than it is forecast to be for this time of the year...and there have been times when it has been higher. Regardless...the forecast is not good for tropical formation after Thursday or so....and considering there is nothing around now...

Also...the GOM is dry. As I mentioned several days ago...given the upper low dropping down...it will get cleared out of moisture even more.

Overall the basin is doing well...but just because its doing well doesn't mean its favorable...and that is what this PARTICULAR forecast is about...favorable conditions for development.

[SouthFloridawx]

One thing I noticed in tropical weather forums, you have a couple of different groups.

1. Pro-Mets - Very Clear and Concise, sticking with the forecast, observations and model output.
2. Beginners - Trying to learn something about it, but are afraid to post and when they do, they are criticized for their thoughts and forecasts.
3. Amateurs and Experienced Amateurs... - They usually post their own forecasts, some having a good understand of the terminology and have seen quite a few storms develop under many circumstances.

All in all I would say that anyone of these groups could be right about development and could be wrong. We saw that with Barry this year, many said it would and many said it wouldn't. I have seen many times when all the odds are against formation and something does.

Although, I don't see much chance for development here...

[Dean4Storms]

I didn't last week with BB's original post nor do I now see any chance of TC formation in the GOM this week. UL's are way too hostile and nothing but ridging at the surface.

[MGC]

Yea, clear skys over the GOM. The sun must be warming those waters up nicely.....just what we need....NOT!....MGC

[Dynamic]

One thing I noticed in tropical weather forums, you have a couple of different groups.

1. Pro-Mets - Very Clear and Concise, sticking with the forecast, observations and model output.
2. Beginners - Trying to learn something about it, but are afraid to post and when they do, they are criticized for their thoughts and forecasts.
3. Amateurs and Experienced Amateurs... - They usually post their own forecasts, some having a good understand of the terminology and have seen quite a few storms develop under many circumstances.

All in all I would say that anyone of these groups could be right about development and could be wrong. We saw that with Barry this year, many said it would and many said it wouldn't. I have seen many times when all the odds are against formation and something does.

Although, I don't see much chance for development here...

I really believe that you're right, inclusive the NHC is not accurate in all their TWO. I saw a report a couple of days ago saying that when the NHC said in the TWO that a tropical depresion could be form tonight or the next day, only in the 53% of the cases a TD occurs in the next 48 hours. And if they said some slow development is possible, only in the 20% of the cases a TD occurs in the next 48 hours.

[Berwick Bay]

Here's something else. Thoses stats about the relatively low percentage of development in storms listed as possible tropical depressions within a day or two of the NHC Discussion has taught many of us something else. In large part you will come out ahead if you tend to "pooh-pooh" development. Downplaying development will make you a winner in a great majority of situations. The mechanics of tropical development are poorly understood relative to course and direction of existing systems. Same with intensity forecasts--poorly understood relative to directional forecasts. So if you wanna look smart, its best to downplay. But here's the flip side, and I've seen this happen too. When development does occur, (and sometimes these things get put it together very quickly), you can get caught "behind the curve" so to speak. Events can be happening which have profound importance for a coastline or region, and you have not yet caught up to the seriousness or magnitude of the situation.

[Berwick Bay]

Heavy storms now in process of coming off N Yucutan Coast and into Southern Gulf of Mexico. Of course all logic, (its a ULL--need more time), extremely dry air, and shear values too elevated, mean that logically we can expect a diminshing in storms over night. But I'll watch any way.

[HURAKAN]

"Yucatan" not "Yucutan." Keep watching it because maybe not today, or not tomorrow, but some day something will develop near the Yucatan peninsula!!!

[Air Force Met]

"Yucatan" not "Yucutan." Keep watching it because maybe not today, or not tomorrow, but some day something will develop near the Yucatan peninsula!!!

It certainly won't be today. Those storms will begin to die as soon as they hit the Gulf. Then...as soon as the sun goes down...the ones over land will die.

[skysummit]

yea...that's what I don't get either. Shear is actually lower than normal for this time of the year. We can't expect near perfect conditions this early in the season. All in all, I'd say the basin is doing pretty good.

What's normal? Normal is just the average of the highs and the lows observed. There have been plenty of times when the shear over the GOM was a lot lower than it is forecast to be for this time of the year...and there have been times when it has been higher. Regardless...the forecast is not good for tropical formation after Thursday or so....and considering there is nothing around now...

I'm comparing overall shear currently across the Atlantic Basin to the last few years. People continue to post how high shear remains, but this is nothing but normal for this early in the season....and comparing to the last few years, lower shear covers more area currently than in the past. I understand that some days will be higher in some locals, and some days will be lower, but I'm looking at an overall picture compared to climatology.

I also agree that nothing will be forming in the gulf....at least not for the next week

[ronjon]

I'm not sure I'd write off development in the eastern GOM this weekend. The NAM and to some extent the GFS has been rather insistent on developing a low pressure system off the NE tip of the Yucatan on Friday and moving it northward into the eastern GOM. If you look at the latest GFDL run of the EPAC disturbance, you'll see that the GFDL spins up a decent 1004 mb low in the eastern GOM and runs it north into the FL panhandle. The GFDL has also been consistent over the last two days in spinning up low pressure and moving it northward along the FL west coast. Wind shear values have dropped off in the SE GOM and just north of the Yucatan to less than 10 kts. The ULL that has led to recent high shear values is weakening and slowly drifting off to the west. Wind shear forecast for 72 hrs looks favorable for the SE GOM.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not sure I'd write off development in the eastern GOM this weekend. The NAM and to some extent the GFS has been rather insistent on developing a low pressure system off the NE tip of the Yucatan on Friday and moving it northward into the eastern GOM. If you look at the latest GFDL run of the EPAC disturbance, you'll see that the GFDL spins up a decent 1004 mb low in the eastern GOM and runs it north into the FL panhandle. The GFDL has also been consistent over the last two days in spinning up low pressure and moving it northward along the FL west coast. Wind shear values have dropped off in the SE GOM and just north of the Yucatan to less than 10 kts. The ULL that has led to recent high shear values is weakening and slowly drifting off to the west. Wind shear forecast for 72 hrs looks favorable for the SE GOM.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

I agree there ronjon, several of us including AFM have talked about the possibility of development in the NW Carib. and it moving toward Florida as several models have been hinting at for some time now.

[Weatherfreak000]

Indeed I agree with the previous two posters on this.



In my opinion we're still good to go for Chantal forming this month, and I believe the C Storm will be our first "Purely" Tropical System in nature, not a system filled with doubts like Andrea and Barry.


I also agree that due to common sense, it appears the SE GOM, and Yucatan will most likely be the spot the next storm develops, however in a few days out it appears the BOC area looks to be quite favorable.


Nothing significant as of now but I think I will begin watching the Caribbean to see if a low can spin up in that area. But given the current synoptic patterns I think most of us here can agree at the very least it's going to probably be a good five to six days before we can think of developing a system in the Tropical Atlantic.

[flwxwatcher]

I have seen a few hints from the NAM and GFS about possible development.. also, a upward motion pulse is moving into the Gulf/ Caribbean .. Run the animation and you can see nicely Barry formed during the last upward pulse..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... thly.shtml

[NDG]

I'm not sure I'd write off development in the eastern GOM this weekend. The NAM and to some extent the GFS has been rather insistent on developing a low pressure system off the NE tip of the Yucatan on Friday and moving it northward into the eastern GOM. If you look at the latest GFDL run of the EPAC disturbance, you'll see that the GFDL spins up a decent 1004 mb low in the eastern GOM and runs it north into the FL panhandle. The GFDL has also been consistent over the last two days in spinning up low pressure and moving it northward along the FL west coast. Wind shear values have dropped off in the SE GOM and just north of the Yucatan to less than 10 kts. The ULL that has led to recent high shear values is weakening and slowly drifting off to the west. Wind shear forecast for 72 hrs looks favorable for the SE GOM.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

I would call the GFDL in-consistant versus consistant, the 18z run is the first run that it tries to spin a low below 1008 mb, 12z run didn't do much with it, 00z & 06z runs showed weak lows. I'll see what it comes out with on its next couple of runs before I would say that it has been consistant.

[tailgater]

The area on the southeast side of the Yucatan Pennisula seems to be the area with the most favorable conditions if any this morning.
Lower level convergence.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8conv.GIF
Upper level low to it's NW and upper level moisture.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
fairly low pressure at the surface.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//gfs/2 ... //slp0.png
Some T-storms firing in the general area, more now with diurnal max.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/185.jpg
Climatology.
But no LLC and shear in the 20 to 30 knt range
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shtZ.GIF
should be drifting inland
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1Z.GIF

[ronjon]

Latest CMC model (00Z) spins up low pressure in the south central GOM amd moves toward the FL big bend region by late Sunday.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[NDG]

Latest CMC model (00Z) spins up low pressure in the south central GOM amd moves toward the FL big bend region by late Sunday.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Too bad they stopped running the GFDL on TD 3 EPAC, it would had been interesting to see if it would had been continued to spin up something in the NW Carib-SE GOM.

[tailgater]

Some pressure drops in the last 24 hrs. Probably from tropical wave entering this area.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057