Atlantic INVEST 94L

[NDG]

This system looks to be a quick mover. I don't understand why they said NW movement in the 10:30pm tropical update. Looks like its moving swiftly to the NE.

You're looking at the dying ULL moving NE, not the surface feature.

[boca]

This system looks to be a quick mover. I don't understand why they said NW movement in the 10:30pm tropical update. Looks like its moving swiftly to the NE.

You're looking at the dying ULL moving NE, not the surface feature.

I here ya but most of the moisture is with the ULL right now.

[wxman57]

I don't understand why the NHC is calling for a "Slow NW Drift" while Wxman is sure the system will track to the NE by tomorrow afternoon.


I follow your opinion on this Wxman, any reason why the NHC is saying this thing will remain where it is?

LOW LEVEL steering currents remain weak...take a look at the LOW LEVEL FLOW....its showing very weak steering currents...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

Low Level steering is what steers weak systems...not upper level flow....correct me if I am wrong please...this is what I have heard said on
here many times and this is what I am basing this on. Upper level winds only affect the steering of STRONGER TCs....again...Correct me if I am wrong....

Yes, weak systems are steered by low-level flow. But this area of thunderstorms is being produce almost completely by the upper-level low, not a low-level feature. So if the upper low exits NE, what's going to be left to produce the thunderstorms? That's the big question. I don't think there will be much left after the upper low cuts across Cuba and heads for the Bahamas tomorrow. We'll see.

[cpdaman]

TWC amd NHC say if a low forms it will move generally NW i will go with there "guess" over anyone's! but then where would it head in the mid term-long term

berwick bay do you have any ideas on the steering patterns and shear profiles if say sunday we have a low in the east central gulf anyone anyone

bueller....bueller...

[wxman57]

This system looks to be a quick mover. I don't understand why they said NW movement in the 10:30pm tropical update. Looks like its moving swiftly to the NE.

You're looking at the dying ULL moving NE, not the surface feature.

I here ya but most of the moisture is with the ULL right now.

Precisely, boca.

Bedtime. Early shift tomorrow.

[Ivanhater]

I gotta be up at 5:30 in the morn...just waiting on the gfdl before I hit the bed

[boca]

I don't think the rain will get north of the Keys before it exits into the Bahamas tomorrow by the looks of it now.

[dixiebreeze]

This system looks to be a quick mover. I don't understand why they said NW movement in the 10:30pm tropical update. Looks like its moving swiftly to the NE.

You're looking at the dying ULL moving NE, not the surface feature.

Exactly.

[Weatherfreak000]

Okay, thanks for the explanation. I logically assumed that was what you meant Wxman, I just had to make sure.


I'm assuming little from this when the ULL pulls out for the short time, perhaps with the diurnal maximum a slight convective burst will occur. I however, will not look strongly at development until like I said another 16 hours out. At that time I believe if it can stay established, a LLC could possibly develop and wrap around some strong convection, and a TD soon after.

Basically, I think tonight is crucial. If I wake up and still notice this feature on Satellite and it isn't diminishing I think we're looking at a climbing chance for development.

(obviously i'm talking only positives, the more likely scenario is this broad surface low just dissipates and we all move on)

[tailgater]

I don't understand why the NHC is calling for a "Slow NW Drift" while Wxman is sure the system will track to the NE by tomorrow afternoon.


I follow your opinion on this Wxman, any reason why the NHC is saying this thing will remain where it is?

LOW LEVEL steering currents remain weak...take a look at the LOW LEVEL FLOW....its showing very weak steering currents...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

Low Level steering is what steers weak systems...not upper level flow....correct me if I am wrong please...this is what I have heard said on
here many times and this is what I am basing this on. Upper level winds only affect the steering of STRONGER TCs....again...Correct me if I am wrong....

Yes, weak systems are steered by low-level flow. But this area of thunderstorms is being produce almost completely by the upper-level low, not a low-level feature. So if the upper low exits NE, what's going to be left to produce the thunderstorms? That's the big question. I don't think there will be much left after the upper low cuts across Cuba and heads for the Bahamas tomorrow. We'll see.

[boca]

By tomorrow it will be a Bahamas system.

[Ivanhater]

Is the GFDL coming out soon? good grief

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS starting to roll in

[Weatherfreak000]

Appears as if shear has completely hit a standstill in the Western Caribbean at a discouraging 20 knots, however things will improve drastically in 94L's area tomorrow, if it can manage to hold together through the night.

[tailgater]

By tomorrow it will be a Bahamas system.

IMHO the upper low or what's left of it will be in the Bahamas but the Invest will be close to where it is right now. I think 57 is just following the midlevel system.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on satellite and buoys there is a broad surface low around 18-18.5 north/86.5 west. This surface low has been trying to flare convection but overall shear is still to strong; because of the strong ULL at 20.5 north/87 west moving to its north. Once this moves out, expect overall enviroment to become better for development. I would give it a "20 percent chance" of becoming something. It should move northward then once pass 23 north northeastward.

The upper level low once moved out should lessen shear over it to less then 15-20 knots, could get down to 8-12 knots. Better then what Barry had to deal with, also the sst's are much warmer. We will have to see how this develops.

[Coredesat]

SSTs aren't everything. Sure, they'll be warmer, but the broad low will likely be over Cuba by this time tomorrow, and the surrounding air is bone dry. There may not be much convection to speak of in the morning.

[Weatherfreak000]

Well, the ULL is moving to the general NE, and that part is bringing the convection with it.


However, the broad area of low pressure will remain where it's always been. It will slowly drift to the NW. Shear is simply too strong for convection to fire however.

[NDG]

By tomorrow it will be a Bahamas system.

It wouldn't be a Bahamas system because the surface low pressure center is in the NW Caribbean, and it will not be moving to the NE right now. Surface & mid level ridge are moving in from the east, surface pressures across the Bahamas have been on the rise since the past 24 hrs.

[miamicanes177]

yipppee!!!!! come on chantal!!!!!!!!!!