Area's of interest in Western Atlantic

Aric Dunn · #61 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:45 am

Still think closer to DR

dont know what to tell you.. that is where I still see the part of the wave axis and thats where i believe from past experience (which may be wrong) that where will see surface low start to develop and move north by sometime tomorrow where the nhc says 33n 66w

jrod · #62 Postby **jrod** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:50 am

Aric, are you watching the J-Bay contest?

#63 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:51 am

Interesting naked little swirl north of DR near 20.8N/71.4W

Aric Dunn · #64 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:55 am

NDG wrote:Interesting naked little swirl north of DR near 20.8N/71.4W

i was looking at it .. it may be the start of something or just local a phenomenon.. but it is moving north .. away from DR.. will have to watch that area close today

Aric Dunn · #65 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:55 am

jrod wrote:Aric, are you watching the J-Bay contest?

whats the link?

Aquawind · #66 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:55 am

Whew.. good job.. I think you just held off another hundred or so from putting up a bullseye in thier closet door next to thier Cane tracking map. No question many here love to challenge the professionals and they have nothing at stake. We all make mistakes. Glad your taking it all in stride. It's not easy and we appreciate your time.

jrod · #67 Postby **jrod** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:55 am

If anything is going to happen it will be when the ULL interacts with the front. I can't disagree with wxman and more than likely nothing worth tracking will happen. I got what I want after a month or so of waiting and it is from a tropical system.

jrod · #68 Postby **jrod** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:56 am

http://www.billabongpro.com/

The final is about to start Kelly vs Taj.

Yeah this is way off topic.

Aric Dunn · #69 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:58 am

jrod wrote:http://www.billabongpro.com/

The final is about to start Kelly vs Taj.

Yeah this is way off topic.

lol yeah.. they might get a swell from our system LOL (J/k)

cpdaman · #70 Postby **cpdaman** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 9:20 am

will be watching the naked swirl, the ULL and the t'storms off carolines

nne fetch could bring south central florida some surf on sunday nothing like 16 years ago

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47hmqfXuA3A

#71 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 10:08 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...EXTENDING FROM
HISPANIOLA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES...IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

The wheel is turning.

#72 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 10:11 am

I can't see them not declaring this an Invest soon.

Aric Dunn · #73 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 10:13 am

yeah ,, its going to happen today i imagine..

watch closer to DR (Hispaniola) for the Low to really begin to take shape.

#74 Postby **windstorm99** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 10:17 am

Right but wouldn't anything that might development in the vicinity stay out to sea with the approaching cold front?

Aric Dunn · #75 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 10:20 am

yeah... most likely..
although the gfs yesterday.. has it doing a loop and heading back SW after that.. but i dont see that happening.. that trough has dug down abnormally far to the south... but we first have to see something before we can forecast where its going..

#76 Postby **sponger** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 10:29 am

Surf this weekend? Time to see what the fnmoc has to say!

Aric Dunn · #77 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 10:36 am

notice where the gfs .. starts to show something .. near DR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006m.gif

#78 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 10:39 am

NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 21 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-059 (CORRECTED TAKE OFF TIME)

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 22/1300Z
D. 32.0N 64.0W
E. 18Z 21Z
F. 1500 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 23/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 23/0100Z
D. 35.0N 64.5W
F. 05Z 09Z
G. SFC 10,000 FT

This should be an invest by this afternoon or evening.

Aric Dunn · #79 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 10:42 am

yep..

#80 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 21, 2007 10:43 am

Aric Dunn wrote:yeah ,, its going to happen today i imagine..

watch closer to DR (Hispaniola) for the Low to really begin to take shape.

Surface pressure just north of the DR is up to 1018mb and rising. No development there. Look north, young man! The upper low and its interaction with the approaching trof will be the place to watch for a potential surface low. Note the possible invest way up at 32N - that's the upper low 600 miles north of the storms near the DR.

Time to head out and get some chores done then a 4 hour bike ride before the rain starts.

Area's of interest in Western Atlantic

Re: north of hispanola & E of the SE. bahamas

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Re: north of hispanola & E of the SE. bahamas

Re: north of hispanola & E of the SE. bahamas

Re: north of hispanola & E of the SE. bahamas

Re: north of hispanola & E of the SE. bahamas

Re: north of hispanola & E of the SE. bahamas

Re: north of hispanola & E of the SE. bahamas

Re: north of hispanola & E of the SE. bahamas

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