Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
157 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 03 2007 - 12Z TUE AUG 07 2007

SOUTHEAST/DEEP SOUTH...

PER COORDINATION WITH NHC...ADDED A LOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE THE GULF COAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND
SHORTENED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO END AT THE SURFACE LOW IN CASE
IT WERE TO DEVELOP A MORE TROPICAL CHARACTER. THE LOW SHOULD
DEVELOP DUE TO THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE INLAND OF
THE WESTERN GULF COAST...WHICH LATER RETROGRADES INTO OLD MEXICO.
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE BOTH NEAR AND EAST OF THIS LOW AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.


Source:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[Cyclone1]

This could be a developing system by tomorrow.

[fwbbreeze]

afternoon AFD from Mobile, AL

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/productview ... &version=0


LONG TERM: LATEST GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A SFC LOW NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER AND TRACK IT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AL AND NWFL COAST. THE GFS PLACES THIS LOW CENTER A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN THE CANADIAN...MOST LIKELY RESULTING IN BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE CWFA LATE FRI THROUGH SAT ATTM...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE POSITION OF THIS LOW CENTER BY FRI MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION 40 TO 60 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA FRI AFT AND SAT. IF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER DEVELOPED THAN THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT. BY SUN SFC LOW FILLS OVER INTERIOR AL/GA WITH SFC TO H8 RIDGE REBUILDING WEST OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. AS A RESULT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE
LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO USE OR STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT 00Z MEXMOS FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED PDS. /32

[ronjon]

Was just about to post that hybrid_storm...Interesting,,seems to have gotten NHC's attention

SOUTHEAST/DEEP SOUTH...
PER COORDINATION WITH NHC...ADDED A LOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE THE GULF COAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND SHORTENED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO END AT THE SURFACE LOW IN CASE IT WERE TO DEVELOP A MORE TROPICAL HARACTER. .....SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BOTH NEAR AND EAST OF THIS LOW AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

[ronjon]

18Z NAM run shows a developing system south of FL panhandle. Lowest pressure I can find is 29.83 at Cross City and Perry in the Big Bend. Buoy 100 miles west of Bayport is at 1011 mb.

[Stormcenter]

Here is another model on board.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etauspcp.html

[caneman]

Was just about to post that hybrid_storm...Interesting,,seems to have gotten NHC's attention

SOUTHEAST/DEEP SOUTH...
PER COORDINATION WITH NHC...ADDED A LOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE THE GULF COAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND SHORTENED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO END AT THE SURFACE LOW IN CASE IT WERE TO DEVELOP A MORE TROPICAL HARACTER. .....SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BOTH NEAR AND EAST OF THIS LOW AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

Anybody pick up on this?
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BOTH NEAR AND EAST OF THIS LOW AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE

[SunnyThoughts]

pressure 29.81 and falling here in Pensacola

[ronjon]

Ok, I know its the dreaded NAM (18z), but look at this rainfall total in 36 hrs.

[Brent]

Ok, I know its the dreaded NAM (18z), but look at this rainfall total in 36 hrs.

and practically nothing here, I'm near that narrow band of nothing(up in Central AL) with just the lightest amounts(less than .10) surrounding me.

Guess the severe drought will continue..

But I'm officially more interested in this than 99L.

[cpdaman]

current gfs takes it to 1010 mb and then inland

so no great shakes although models can change and if i lived in the panhandle this would be at least something to watch

[ronjon]

Brent, don't give up yet on the rain prospects - that was just one model, Others such as GFS form the low further west toward your neck of the woods. Here is HPCs 4-5 day rainfall.

[Farseer]

current gfs takes it to 1010 mb and then inland

so no great shakes although models can change and if i lived in the panhandle this would be at least something to watch

Well, buoys south of Pensacola are already at 1010.2 and falling.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040&unit=M&tz=STN

[flwxwatcher]

18Z NAM run shows a developing system south of FL panhandle. Lowest pressure I can find is 29.83 at Cross City and Perry in the Big Bend. Buoy 100 miles west of Bayport is at 1011 mb.

Yes, I saw the 18Z run of the dreaded NAM getting more Bullish on the Ne Gulf system. but the GFS also the last several days has been hinting at something as well. Maybe something will be trying to form someplace in the Northern Gulf the next few days.. Worth watching at least IMHO.

[HeeBGBz]

We've been having some strong storms in the Biloxi area for the last hour or 2.
We're getting a pretty good soaking. Lots of lightning and thunder at the beginning.



These are looking east towards Mobile.

[JonathanBelles]

Ive been in a shield of clouds all day.

[Cyclone1]

Ive been in a shield of clouds all day.

It's been raining constantly in Lakeland, which is fine by me.

[Steve]

Lots of rain in New Orleans today as stuff just rolls in along that trough boundary. You guys east should see more if it as it works its way back up post trough washout.

JMO

Steve

[NcentralFlaguy]

Seems like its been raining every day in Ocala for 2 weeks.

[srainhoutx]

interesting AFD tonight from HOU/GAL WFO...


000
FXUS64 KHGX 010136
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
836 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE TO ZFP TO LOWER POPS FOR MOST OF THE SW
2/3RDS OF THE CWA AFTER 930 PM WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT STORMS TO
THE NNW WILL BE DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE INTO STRONGER CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT FROM
AROUND BUFFALO TO UTS TO NEAR IAH FROM OUTFLOWS COMING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RICHER MOISTURE OOZING
INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE BIG BEND REGION AND THE INTRUSION OF A
COOLER UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FETCH...AND SHOULD LEAD TO MUCH
GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE CWA THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE LAST FEW DAYS. WILL PROBABLY MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKIES AS
WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR REMNANT CIRRUS CLOUDS. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE EASTERN/NORTHCENTRAL/FLORIDA AREAS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS REMAINS OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS COME INTO PLAY.45/39

remember that Alicia, August of 1983, formed on the tail end of a frontal boundry that passed to our E.