Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WNW with a ridge building over

so Texas or Mexico?

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Too early to tell...but I'd say Tx or Mex if I had to guess,
based on the ridge.
Generally it's too hard to tell until about a
system is 3 days from land...
so to know where this will go
we would have to wait about 3 days.

[astrosbaseball22]

where in texas if you had to guess

[Cyclone1]

It doesn't look like anything organized right now. No TD today folks. But it completed one step to becoming a TD, the convection didn't die off during the day and will probably increase later tonight.

I'm so proud.... *tear*

I'm not sure if your being sarcastic and making fun of me or if your trying to compliment me.

Edit: Never mind, I figured it out.

I was just making a joke, not being sarcastic or making fun of anyone.

[Extremeweatherguy]

WNW with a ridge building over

so Texas or Mexico?

Though TX, Mexico and/or Central America look most likely ATM, it is really too early to make that call. There are just way too many variables and many things can change. I say we wait to let this develop before trying to predict future track.

[philnyc]

Hello everybody. I'm new on here. An interesting thought would be if this disturbance in the gulf gets cranked up, I would imagine that it would have some kind of pull on 99L and may nudge it a bit furthur north. I don't think the U.S. is completely out of the woods as far as this system goes. If you look back over climatology, especially the systems Ivan, Emily, Dennis, ect..., all formed far south and hooked vigerously toward the Flordia/ Alabama coasts.

Welcome! You're just in time for all of the fun. We've done 100+ pages on a tropical wave so far! So you'll have plenty to read here...

[ROCK]

Hey weatherguru18....me and you have some history back on the KHOU board.... Welcome aboard....

My 2cents on 99L is that even if it developes into a TD it aint going to plow through that ridge to the N. All guidance points to a MX event.....JMO...

[hicksta]

where in texas if you had to guess

You can't really take a educated guess right now with this storm about a week away from landfall if it threatned the US. Anything can happen. Three days till landfall you can have a GUESS, but i will always remember the 27 hour car drive to dallas from galveston when 3 days out all the models had it cat 4 in my backyard. Neverless we didnt even lose a branch!! You can never know with these storms its kind of a wait and see type of game.

[Blown Away]

The NHC keeps saying 99L is moving W, but on the loop most of the convection appears to be moving WNW to NW. To me the low appears to be near 13N. If the low is near 12.4 and if most of the convection is near 13N, is it safe to say the overall structure is not good?

[HURAKAN]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N58W OR ABOUT 200 NM E OF THE
S WINDWARD ISLANDS. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DID NOT
FIND A LOW LEVEL CENTER DURING ITS LAST FLIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES W NEAR 15 KT. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 57W-64W.

Nothing new.

[SaveNola]

The NHC keeps saying 99L is moving W, but on the loop most of the convection appears to be moving WNW to NW. To me the low appears to be near 13N. If the low is near 12.4 and if most of the convection is near 13N, is it safe to say the overall structure is not good?

Well, no its not safe to say that actually.
for what it is, the structure is about what you'd expect.
Now is the structure good for a TD or a TS? Of course not, which is why it isnt either one of those yet.

[Ivanhater]

Ok..just ordered a pizza and watching so you think you can dance...ready to see what happens tonight with 99l...God Im such a weather nerd

[tolakram]

So now conditions are favorable again?

It looks horrible at the moment, where just a few hours ago I was convinced it was a TD. Reality never lies.

[perk]

I've been reading this board all day and just what. I have not read a post about ( DRY AIR IS KILLING 99L) all day. Looks like that issue has been put to rest. Amen!

[Cyclone1]

Ok..just ordered a pizza and watching so you think you can dance...ready to see what happens tonight with 99l...God Im such a weather nerd

Dude, but it's ok because you got pizza! Haha, jk. I'm a weather nerd also. We all are.

[Opal storm]

Why are we already debating where "it" will make landfall? We don't even have a "it" yet. This thing may be a poof of clouds by tomorrow morning for all we know.

[Blown Away]

Most of the deep convection is above 13N and low is down near 12.4.

[Ivanhater]

Ok..just ordered a pizza and watching so you think you can dance...ready to see what happens tonight with 99l...God Im such a weather nerd

Dude, but it's ok because you got pizza! Haha, jk. I'm a weather nerd also. We all are.

Lol..true

[gatorcane]

For those wishing to predict where it goes just remember that systems like this can reform centers....and where all that convection is building NW of it wouldn't surprise me if the "center" moves...

and guess what that means - kiss those model runs that have it going west into Mexico good bye.....

time will tell I guess. Just watching and hoping the center establishes itself farther south.

Remember Ernesto last year? It was a very rare case but these systems do typically have a mind of their own. Of course Ernesto was dealing with a strong TUTT low that also kept it from being a major as it approach South Florida....there is no TUTT low in this case.

The developing low in the GOM may actually be the weakness needed for this invest to sneak up into the NW Caribbean and possibly GOM -- should it survive. The dynamics are quite complex with this system. In the short-term we should expect a W movement but after about 3-4 days its hard to say what happens next at this point.

[philnyc]

So now conditions are favorable again?

It looks horrible at the moment, where just a few hours ago I was convinced it was a TD. Reality never lies.

hey tolakram,
As long as that convection that's out ahead of the wave remains there, which I think it will, this wave will intensify. Watch tonight as the eastern side fills in.

[philnyc]

I've been reading this board all day and just what. I have not read a post about ( DRY AIR IS KILLING 99L) all day. Looks like that issue has been put to rest. Amen!

I second that! Dry air was not an issue. There was some DRIER air around, and DRY air at 300mb, but the middle levels always had sufficient moisture for convection to form.