Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB is now saying that the current typhoon hitting China is more like Carla (since he thinks it will never really recurve)...and would teleconnect nicely to the above normal height field forming over here in the Atlantic. Usagi was more like a Katrina (though it recurved into what would have been the FL panhandle instead of LA)...and now this Chinese typhoon is more like a Carla. If the ridge builds in like that over here, as he suggests it will, then the GOM could have some real issues down the road..

Huh?

Sometimes I think JB figures if we don't understand what he means then maybe we will just go ahead and just believe it. The "teleconnect" stuff sounds like psychic talk.

lol. That's what I thought too until I started seeing it actually work out over the past 2-3 seasons. The motion of storms over in the west pacific do tend to have similarities to the motion of storms in the Atlantic a week or two later. If a ridge is in place there, then one usually is (or will be) in place here and vice versa...in a similar position. Now it doesn't work out 100% of the time, but I would say that more times than not it ends up being a good tool to use when trying to predict future patterns in the Atlantic.

[jasons2k]

Hot and dry all week. I hit 100F yesterday for the first time all summer. I had to water my potted plants for the first time too. It's definitely not like June & July here.

[Steve]

>>Sometimes I think JB figures if we don't understand what he means then maybe we will just go ahead and just believe it. The "teleconnect" stuff sounds like psychic talk.

No. It's something he's been explaining for 6 years. It provides a hint. This ain't Miss Cleo stuff, but it doesn't always verify. However, it often does. And as people have been saying here for 5 years, the GFS (and formerly MRF) ALWAYS wants to break down Atlantic ridging in favor of East Coast Troughiness. That is a known bias in the model. It was supposed to have been fixed, but apparently that has not happened if it is returning to its known biases which never verify. When in doubt, look at the ECMWF. If it shows ridging, that's what's going to be there (excluding transient features as noted above).

Steve

[x-y-no]

Sometimes I think JB figures if we don't understand what he means then maybe we will just go ahead and just believe it. The "teleconnect" stuff sounds like psychic talk.

The difference is that there's some good physical reasing behind the "teleconnections" idea. The mid-latitude Rossby waves propagate west to east around the pole and that 8 to 10 days is about how long they take to propatgate from the western Pacific to the Atlantic. So what he's really talking about is the set-up of troughs and ridges which would steer any system which does form.

[wzrgirl1]

Hey x-y,

Is this weather from the ridge that is being discussed? I know that usually a ridge means dryer and hotter weather right? There is not a cloud in the sky these past few days, and record temps in my neck of the woods....heck it was 98 in miramar yesterday.

[Sanibel]

If I'm interpreting the WV loop correctly a large Bermuda-type High has set up well SW of its normal position plunging way down into Central America with dry air and high shear. A giant weak trough remnant is above the Antilles and into the Atlantic with a ULL spinning in it. By Africa a High pressure area is set up in the east Atlantic that is transporting SAL surges into the ITCZ.

Time to take a few days off...

[Opal storm]

Time to take a few days off...

We've had nearly 2 months off.