Long-Term Model Runs

[skysummit]

This run shows it recurving out to sea before ever hitting Florida....out to 300 hours now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS at 174 hours.As Steve mentioned,as the timeframe gets deeper and deeper into late August,what GFS shows are no longer spurious lows but the normal pattern of cyclongeneris in the deep tropics for the peak of the season.

Also shows a depression type low over FL at 174

[Ivanhater]

[skysummit]

Well, that run was friendly for the U.S.!

[flwxwatcher]

Let's remember folks, that we're getting into the part of the season that will favor tropical development. There will be the typical ebb and flow of the troughs and ridges. I do not believe at this point that the GFS depiction of storm development across the basin are spurious lows, as this is getting into prime time. The current pattern is setting up to feature some expansive ridging across portions of the the Atlantic, as is typical for this time of year. The GFS depiction of development of tropical cyclones is certainly valid at this point. Where these features end up is not possible to detect at this point, even with the teleconnections. I believe that we may go through a rather active period beginning in the next 10 days. SAL is diminishing in the eastern and central Atlantic and I believe that we will see a rough 8-week pattern setting up after day 10. We should look at our storm preparation procedures now. Forewarned is forearmed.

Agree Steve..
but before the long range hurricane. An area closer to home early next week I think bears watching .. The area right around Florida, Models have been hinting at and show lower pressures in the Gulf next week. Maybe some Home brew???

[benny]

Let's remember folks, that we're getting into the part of the season that will favor tropical development. There will be the typical ebb and flow of the troughs and ridges. I do not believe at this point that the GFS depiction of storm development across the basin are spurious lows, as this is getting into prime time. The current pattern is setting up to feature some expansive ridging across portions of the the Atlantic, as is typical for this time of year. The GFS depiction of development of tropical cyclones is certainly valid at this point. Where these features end up is not possible to detect at this point, even with the teleconnections. I believe that we may go through a rather active period beginning in the next 10 days. SAL is diminishing in the eastern and central Atlantic and I believe that we will see a rough 8-week pattern setting up after day 10. We should look at our storm preparation procedures now. Forewarned is forearmed.

Agree Steve..
but before the long range hurricane. An area closer to home early next week I think bears watching .. The area right around Florida, Models have been hinting at and show lower pressures in the Gulf next week. Maybe some Home brew???

The home brew in the gulf of mexico has a better chance of verifying than the 300 hour GFS!!!

[windstorm99]

As expected the GFS model changes its tune and now recurves our 800hr+ storm into the atlantic before reaching the united states.

[SouthFloridawx]

Probably something a little more important that just, seeing a storm recurve that far out...

We see not just that one, but 2 more systems in behind it. I think we should watch the models, it just may be time for conditions to be pretty ripe out there, in a week to 14 days.

[weatherman21]

I also see this trend in the GFS where over the past few days the model has been indicating a tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa and then tracking westward over the southern Atlantic. The GFS run from 18Z (2pm) today detects the wave emerging off the west coast of Africa by this Saturday and immediately developing into a low pressure area as it tracks south of the Cape Verde Islands. In no way do I trust the exact timing of the GFS in regards to this tropical low pressure; however, I am beginning to see a consistancy of the GFS detecting a possible tropical cyclone tracking across the southern Atlantic by sometime next week. I have been following these model runs in the Integrated Data Viewer and I have a few screen captures below of the GFS model run from 18Z today:

The first image is for 15z on 8/12:


Second image is for 6z on 8/15:


Third image is for 6z on 8/21 where the long-range Global GFS shows the possible storm centered just off the North Carolina coast and recurving into the north Atlantic:

[Weatherfreak14]

Weatherman21, I looked up that Intergated data viewer how can i get it, i registered for Unidata and they never gave me a confirmation email?

[weatherman21]

Not sure why the confirmation email has not been sent yet. If you registered, it should come sometime soon if it has not already.

[windstorm99]

Still trying to get the Intergated data viewer working...Iam in but is there any particular software or links i need to download in order to view the models for example.Thanks Adrian

[weatherman21]

In regards to viewing the models in the IDV, just go to "Data" from the Menu bar, then under "New Data Source", select "From a Catalog". This takes you to a window which allows you to choose what particular model you want to view and the IDV offers the RUC, NAM, and GFS models. Once you are at the Catalog window, you will be able to see the various model types to choose from. I prefer the GFS Global 1 degree for the short-range and then the GFS Global 2.5 degree for the extended range. Once you load your model into the Field Selector, you will want to click on the "Region" tab, located on the right-hand side if the Field Selector to outline the area which you want to view for the model. There are many different model products to choose from.

[weatherman21]

Correction to second-to-last sentence in my previous post. It should be: "on the right-hand side of the Field Selector"

[miamicanes177]

A fresh supply of dust ready to make its trek across the Atlantic will keep things nice and calm the next 7 days. It is truly something to behold seeing how persistent the dust outbreaks have been the past 2 years. This has got to be some of the most tenacious dust on record!

My new favorite words: dust, SAL, dry air. I like these words even more than shear.

[Bane]

Probably something a little more important that just, seeing a storm recurve that far out...

We see not just that one, but 2 more systems in behind it. I think we should watch the models, it just may be time for conditions to be pretty ripe out there, in a week to 14 days.

heck, they give us good entertainment value.

[CourierPR]

A pro met on another site says to watch the Gulf and the Bahamas for possible development because the pattern favors these areas. He adds that the horses are at the starting gate. Perhaps the race is set to begin.

[SouthFloridawx]

Interesting the low that GFS has been anticipating to develop into a cyclone, has moved farther south and farther west than the previous runs. It's doesn't develop it as deep in the 00Z run, but on the other hand it shows a larger more vigorous low behind it.

Could be a pattern or sign of things to come in the not too distant future.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

[Meso]

CMC still developing the same low that the GFS is..

The UKmet too now



174 Hours 06z GFS : Also a low pressure in the gulf


It now has the system moving faster and getting pulled northward by a trough,but then the other system behind it is still there (and the high builds back quickly over it)... Hah entertaining indeed.. 3 to 4 days before the low is suppose to move of africa,so we can see how realistic this is then

[flwxwatcher]

A pro met on another site says to watch the Gulf and the Bahamas for possible development because the pattern favors these areas. He adds that the horses are at the starting gate. Perhaps the race is set to begin.

The Gulf is an area I think bears watching as we head into the late week-end , early next week. The GFS and EURO have been hinting at this the last few runs.