Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

[windstorm99]

Scary stuff if this were to pan out....

12z run by the ECMWF model

[Extremeweatherguy]

Scary stuff if this were to pan out....

12z run by the ECMWF model

Yes, that would be scary. If it goes through the Florida straights then Miami might end up spared the worst..but I really fear for the keys. Luckily this is a long range run that will hopefully (and probably) change.

[flwxwatcher]

2 models are showing recurving to the South. Really strange !

Those models turning it to the south are garbage....Look for the ECMWF which may have a better solution on things.

For the most part the whole BAM suite of models are garbage IMHO..

[Opal storm]

I love it how people are more concerned on WHERE this is going than the stength...or even it developing AT ALL! The long term track from GFS is a joke, that's like judging how a NFL team is going to do based on their preseason performance. I'm just saying you guys are getting way too hung up on the track of this thing, right now we just need to watch and see if this storm even verifies...THEN we can talk about what (IF any) threat this is going to be to land.

[jusforsean]

WOW, I am having pre-Wilma flashbacks reading this post, I will tell you this much, I have been lazy about finishing up my last min preps and I think nows a good time it opened my eyes. I havient been able to live on the board latley as i went back to work but I hope all of our fellow readers get last min stuff done even though i know we are all busy with life. We should all take this as a reminder wake up call that it is possible. It sends chills down my spine like when i saw the early wilma models i just knew, it was a gut feeling. Did that ever happen to any of you?

[GeneratorPower]

I love it how people are more concerned on WHERE this is going than the stength...or even it developing AT ALL! The long term track from GFS is a joke, that's like judging how a NFL team is going to do based on their preseason performance. I'm just saying you guys are getting way too hung up on the track of this thing, right now we just need to watch and see if this storm even verifies...THEN we can talk about what (IF any) threat this is going to be to land.

What's it to ya' ?

[storms in NC]

Scary stuff if this were to pan out....

12z run by the ECMWF model

If you look there are high all over the place on that map

[Dean4Storms]

The Atlantic Ridge looks impressive and in run after run most of the models strengthen it and extend it westward as 90L or whatever it becomes moves westward under it. I don't see any reasons for this not to eventually become a serious storm and threaten either the Carib. Islands, Bahamas, Florida and eventually the Gulf down the road. Like others have posted, I also don't see it developing as quickly as the models have been forecasting it so therefore look for more of a westward component to it for now and maybe more of a turn WNW once it gets West of 50w. At that point we could actually see it stair-stepping into the ridge as a major hurricane.

[storms in NC]

WOW, I am having pre-Wilma flashbacks reading this post, I will tell you this much, I have been lazy about finishing up my last min preps and I think nows a good time it opened my eyes. I havient been able to live on the board latley as i went back to work but I hope all of our fellow readers get last min stuff done even though i know we are all busy with life. We should all take this as a reminder wake up call that it is possible. It sends chills down my spine like when i saw the early wilma models i just knew, it was a gut feeling. Did that ever happen to any of you?

When I see it comeing my way I will go shopping.

[CrazyC83]

In my opinion, this so has recurve around 60W all over it...

I don't see one bit of evidence of that....are you just guessing...or do you know something we don't?

The ridge over the east coast will force it to make an early turn...

[P.K.]

Update to the warning from Meteo France.

WONT50 LFPW 112022
A
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 384 , SATURDAY 11 AUGUST 2007 AT 2020 UTC
GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SATURDAY 11 AT 12 UTC
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W AND 19W, SOUTH OF 20N, AND MOVING WEST
15/20 KT. LOW 1006 NEAR 10N ALONG THE WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W.
SIERRA LEONE
IMMINENT OR CONTINUING TO 13/00UTC AT LEAST.
CYCLONIC 8. SEVERE GUSTS. THUNDERSQUALLS.=

[Extremeweatherguy]

In my opinion, this so has recurve around 60W all over it...

I don't see one bit of evidence of that....are you just guessing...or do you know something we don't?

The ridge over the east coast will force it to make an early turn...

what? IF the models are right (and that is a big if), then the ridge would extend across the Atlantic to the north of the system and into the EC. There would be no turn occuring near 60W as there would be no weakness there at the time.

[Sanibel]

I also don't see it developing as quickly as the models have been forecasting it so therefore look for more of a westward component to it for now and maybe more of a turn WNW once it gets West of 50w. At that point we could actually see it stair-stepping into the ridge as a major hurricane.

A storm that forms closer is worse than one that develops far off and expends itself before it reaches you.

[Brent]

In my opinion, this so has recurve around 60W all over it...

I don't see one bit of evidence of that....are you just guessing...or do you know something we don't?

The ridge over the east coast will force it to make an early turn...

A TROUGH might make it turn but no one is showing that RIGHT NOW. This is not recurving east of the U.S.

*Edited to say right now because it is 10 days out*

[GeneratorPower]

When I see it comeing my way I will go shopping.

Along with everyone else in the city. Go now!!

[windstorm99]

With a High pressure system smothering the east coast i dont see this turning away.Things can change but that is how i see it as of now.

[Beam]

I love it how people are more concerned on WHERE this is going than the stength...or even it developing AT ALL! The long term track from GFS is a joke, that's like judging how a NFL team is going to do based on their preseason performance. I'm just saying you guys are getting way too hung up on the track of this thing, right now we just need to watch and see if this storm even verifies...THEN we can talk about what (IF any) threat this is going to be to land.

Can I get an amen!?

[storms in NC]

When I see it comeing my way I will go shopping.

Along with everyone else in the city. Go now!!

Very very small little town. Live in the middle of no where. Hey we just got DSL LOL comeing up in the world hereLOL

[Jam151]

A TROUGH might make it turn but no one is showing that. This is not recurving east of the U.S.

um yeah...certainly 10+ day model guidance makes it a guarantee US hit.

[x-y-no]

In my opinion, this so has recurve around 60W all over it...

I don't see one bit of evidence of that....are you just guessing...or do you know something we don't?

The ridge over the east coast will force it to make an early turn...

I don't see it ... particularly if it remains relatively weak for a while, it's going to be steered just barely north of west by the strong lower level ridge over it. There will be some mid and maybe upper level weakness around 55w - 60w, but it'll have to be a lot more than the models are depicting for any recurvature (and remember, in the past at least the GFS has tended to be too weak with mid-level ridging in the medium timeframe.)