Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[windstorm99]

Overall iam thinking if this becomes dean which looks very possible and continues to intensify might this cause a shift in the models to shift a tad north?The system is rather weak at the present time.

[SouthFloridawx]

Sorry about the crude picture, but here is what i'm seeing. I am seeing increasing organization of this system. The outflow regime is becoming impressive... Take a look at the loop for yourself and see.

http://tinyurl.com/2vx7wu

[SouthFloridawx]

TD should form at 10 PM i'd figure.


No real reason to jump the gun, it's still a good bit far away from the Caribbean islands, so the NHC won't jump to classify it. We all know it's going to develop anyway.

I agree...

[Brent]

Sorry about the crude picture, but here is what i'm seeing. I am seeing increasing organization of this system. The outflow regime is becoming impressive... Take a look at the loop for yourself and see.

http://tinyurl.com/2vx7wu

It's definitely much better organized than even 12 hours ago. It's getting that look, I think it's got big potential. I'm also expecting a TD by 11pm ET tonight.

[canegrl04]

Bad feeling about this developing system. Barring an early pull north,or a track that crashes it,the US is going to be under the gun of Mean Dean

[tolakram]

Question.

This thing has obvious spin at least to the tops, you can see it in all the motion images. I'm surprised it's not a TD and maybe even a TS. Now me being surprised doesn't mean much as I'm really new to observing tropical weather but don't you think this would already be a TD if it was closer to land?

[storms in NC]

I was just going to post that it looked to be at the 12.5 N It has gone some to the north was 11.5 earlier. Don't think it will be a Due west storm but it is going more like 280 not 270 JMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-wv.html

[wzrgirl1]

Question.

This thing has obvious spin at least to the tops, you can see it in all the motion images. I'm surprised it's not a TD and maybe even a TS. Now me being surprised doesn't mean much as I'm really new to observing tropical weather but don't you think this would already be a TD if it was closer to land?

Yes....but I guess that is why they are not so quick to upgrade it because it isn't close to land.

[RL3AO]

Question.

This thing has obvious spin at least to the tops, you can see it in all the motion images. I'm surprised it's not a TD and maybe even a TS. Now me being surprised doesn't mean much as I'm really new to observing tropical weather but don't you think this would already be a TD if it was closer to land?

Probably.

[Brent]

Question.

This thing has obvious spin at least to the tops, you can see it in all the motion images. I'm surprised it's not a TD and maybe even a TS. Now me being surprised doesn't mean much as I'm really new to observing tropical weather but don't you think this would already be a TD if it was closer to land?

I believe so... the NHC will be cautious since it's days from any land.

Of course, if it were close to land, they'd have planes flying into it which would clear up any doubt.

[Scorpion]

Question.

This thing has obvious spin at least to the tops, you can see it in all the motion images. I'm surprised it's not a TD and maybe even a TS. Now me being surprised doesn't mean much as I'm really new to observing tropical weather but don't you think this would already be a TD if it was closer to land?

Yes... very much so

[CourierPR]

As this system continues to organize, I think there will be variations in its position.

[windstorm99]

I think the models are haveing difficulty initializing 90L because it is shallow right now....Things might change if we see intensification.

Thoughts?

[RL3AO]

This looks like the storm people have been watching/waiting for.

[wzrgirl1]

This looks like the storm people have been watching/waiting for.

It is certaintly starting to look that way

[x-y-no]

From today's HPC extended discussion:

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

ONE FEATURE GARNERING INCREASING ATTENTION IS THE TROPICAL WAVE
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDES...AS THE 00Z/12Z GFS/GFDL/HURRICANE
WRF/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN/NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW
DEVELOPING AND MOVING WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH A CONSENSUS
(AND MANUAL PROG) TRACK TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE GREATER
ANTILLES. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE THE PRIMARY FORM OF DISAGREEMENT
(MANUAL PROGS CLOSEST TO THE 06-12Z GFDL/00Z-12Z CANADIAN/12Z SAT
ECMWF MODELS) WITH SECONDARY NORTH-SOUTH DIFFERENCES AS WELL. SEE
THE TPC/NHC BULLETINS FOR THE LATEST STATUS AND OUTLOOK.

[El Nino]

I saw a quicksat sooner today showing 40 kts winds force. Good for a TS ... But I'm not sure if this could be really true.

[mgpetre]

Looks to me like the ULL off the coast of FL has started to punch a weekness in the ridge over the SE US, as this low continues to track westward I'm guessing it's going to remove a lot of the environment that was keeping storms out of the gulf in general. Safe assumption?

[ekal]

Looks to me like the ULL off the coast of FL has started to punch a weekness in the ridge over the SE US, as this low continues to track westward I'm guessing it's going to remove a lot of the environment that was keeping storms out of the gulf in general. Safe assumption?

That low is in the uppermost levels of the atmosphere. While a few tropical cyclones have been steered by low pressure systems above the surface (Central Florida's Erin comes to mind), such a TUTT low would at least need some mid-level reflection in order to induce a change in the steering flow. That does not appear to be the case here, as the 500mb pattern shows a strong ridge with no reflection of the ULL.

[destruction92]

From reading these posts, I am getting the impression that most people here are calling for 90L to be a gulf coast storm.