Area of convection (Former 92L)

[boca]

I see some blow up also by 75w and 25n.
http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/global/ ... llite.html

This is a closer up look.

[Steve]

Appears to be the northern end of the wave interacting with the Upper Level Low. I haven't looked at the WV loop, but that would be my bet.

Steve

[vaffie]

I see some blow up also by 75w and 25n.
http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/global/ ... llite.html

This is a closer up look.

If convection is consistent, something could come out of the blob such as an MLC that gradually comes down to the surface, but surface pressures are running very high in this area for a surface low to appear in the near future--1015-1016 mb.

[SouthFloridawx]

Actually taking a closer look at the IR tonight, thanks to RAMSDIS...

I see what may appear to be at least a mid-level circulation. Let me explain what I'm seeing and you tell me if I see the same thing.

What I'm seeing is in the vicinity of 24N and 73.5W.



It may not be at the surface, but I'm pretty certain there is at least something in the mid levels.
You can take a look for yourself right here:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float2_0.html

With the Upper Low to it's South it may give some decent outflow help.

Lets see if something pops up...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks the best it ever did. In fact it has a developed a small LLC.

[Coredesat]

A QuikSCAT run at 2302Z showed no LLC:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds19.png

[SouthFloridawx]

A QuikSCAT run at 2302Z showed no LLC:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds19.png

Right... I never said LLC, that is clearly something you can't verify until we get some visible images in. On the other hand, your image is at 2302 and the developing low pressure is after the fact. The url I posted, latest shot is at 715Z. So either one of you could be right... we'll see in the morning.

Hope for some rain here in the SUNSHINE state...

[SouthFloridawx]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float2_0.html
Just take a look at the link I posted... you'll see what I'm talking about. Just merely making some observations, with my hands tied behind my back.

[SouthFloridawx]

NAM shows an area developing, fairly weak... but should bring a bit of needed rain non the less. May make for an interesting end of the week.

[Coredesat]

Was referring to Matt, who contended that there was a LLC. There's no LLC but I definitely see the MLC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say LLC for any system with low clouds turning below 5-8 thousand feet. Low level is 5,000 > or lower, or 850 millibars. Which most lower level clouds fall with in that area. May not be at the surface, also the quickscat is no where near perfect in finding LLC's. The system does not look to bad. If it keeps developing convection and working that down to the surface, I expect it to redevelop into 92L.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better today.

[HURAKAN]

[Emmett_Brown]

Here is a nice loop of the area in question:

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?banner=mkwc&chnl=ui4&domain=bah&size=large&period=360&incr=15&rr=300&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

[Sabanic]

Good loop, but hard to pick out any type of circulation at all. Is moving very quickly though

[ronjon]

I see a low level circulation around 25N-75W. Low clouds are wrapping into it from the S & SE. It is mostly devoid of convection on the east side. I believe this is the same weak low pressure that was on the wave axis yesterday (1014 mb). The low is clearly still getting sheared by the ULL to the south. If that shear relaxes over the next 12-24 hrs, then there is a small opportunity for development prior to moving over the S FL peninsula.

[Thunder44]

No posted TWO from this system so here it is:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220920
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DEAN...CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM
CUBA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Nimbus]

This is moving west so it might be something to look at when it reaches the gulf. The Nam favored the area enough to center a low at the South Florida latitude.

[Sjones]

IMO, anything, that develops and moves in the GOM will really fire up as soon as it hits the hot GOM waters.

[HURAKAN]

At least worth dicussing it!!!

805 EDT TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 30N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE HAS SHOWED UP WELL IN RECENT QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SHOWS A LITTLE MORE CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG
THE WAVE JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...AM NOT SURE
THERE IS A CLOSED SFC LOW WITH THIS SPINNING...WITH BAHAMAS
METAR DATA TO THE S OF THE CIRCULATION REPORTING LIGHT NE WINDS.
WILL DIAGNOSE THIS AGAIN FOR THE 22/1200 UTC MAP AS MORE VISIBLE
IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE. DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-29N
BETWEEN 72W-78W...WHICH IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW JUST S OF
CUBA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS ALSO NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FURTHER S WITH THE CARIBBEAN
PORTION OF THE WAVE...S OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-80W.