Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

[ConvergenceZone]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Oh man the convection is weakining.

What's new....Other than Dean, this pattern is really reminding me of 2006. Same old song and dance....

This season cannot be compared to 2006. 2006 had an El Nino, 2007 has a La Nina. 2006 had no landfalling hurricanes, 2007 had a freakin Cat 5 make landfall.

And what do you mean same old song and dance? Does diurnal minimum mean absolutely nothing to you? I'm sorry we are not watching for Tropical Storm Pi to develop, but there are 2 invests, plus a third possible tomorrow and a very impressive wave about to exit Africa.

wake me up when they develop then. What I mean by "same old song and dance" is....wave comes off Africa, looks pretty good, gets mentioned in TWO, looses convection, TWO later issues less favorable for development statement, and POOF....lather, rinse, repeat........I'm just feeling a bit of deja vu to last year, because that happened sooooo many times last year, until eventually the season ended.

[bvigal]

And Charlie said to Maverick, "You're not going to be happy unless you're going Mach-2 with your hair on fire and you know it."
A few words changed in this famous phrase could easily adapt to some of our young "Cat 5 barreling toward the U.S. coast" fans!

[marcane_1973]

ConvergenceZone said......
wake me up when they develop then. What I mean by "same old song and dance" is....wave comes off Africa, looks pretty good, gets mentioned in TWO, looses convection, TWO later issues less favorable for development statement, and POOF....lather, rinse, repeat........I'm just feeling a bit of deja vu to last year, because that happened sooooo many times last year, until eventually the season ended.
Feeling the same here. We could be hitting the peak of the season with no named storms or any invests. The eastern atlantic looks like a mess right now. Nothing is going to develop being all bunched up together like that. Looks like alot of blobs of disorganized convection that can't seperate from the ITCZ. NOAA said winds are going to be favorable starting in August running through September and that turned out to be bogus. Easterly mid level shear has ruled most of the eastern central and eastern Atlantic. I feel this is another 2006 with the only difference ofcourse being Dean the lucky one to slip through at the right time. Dean on the other hand had the best outflow and structure of any wave this season. Dean was also the only wave to have held itself together and not fizzle out once it hit the ocean after exiting Africa. The timing was perfect with Dean of when and where he exited Africa. He was also located below the SAL and conditions at that time were just right in the eastern atlantic to keep him alive till he moved further west to riper conditions to really get him going. If atmosperic conditions stay like they are in the Atlantic right now through the entire month of September it is going to take alot more than luck to get a minimal cane to form. At best we might see some 50mph TS to develop.

[deltadog03]

I have said this before.... The cooler than normal SST and the higher than normal pressures/ dry air is all but killed the eastern atlantic. Doesn't mean something may get through, but overall don't expect much!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Same old tune I agree. Everything is busting other than dean and a few others.
Go ahead. Rip off my head for saying that.

[ConvergenceZone]

Same old tune I agree. Everything is busting other than dean and a few others.
Go ahead. Rip off my head for saying that.

Nobody will rip off your head for saying that. You didn't say anything wrong. It's the way it is...Believe me, I got blasted last year for making a couple of comments like I made up above, but eventually everyone else came around and started saying the same thing....I just see a deja vu is all as far as how the Atlantic looks and it doesn't seem like any blob can get it's act together....I'm sure there will be a couple of storms that end up coming together eventually out of future convection blobs, but no evidence it will be anymore then that...I don't think we will know for sure though until after we hit about the 2nd week of September, then we will know if this post is accurate or if I"m eating some crow....

[cycloneye]

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

It is mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook at 11:30 AM.

[Meso]

wow a TWO on this..Wouldn't surprised if we see another invest soon,and then the wave about to come off Africa also looks good.. I`m wondering if one of these will develop. But the more waves the better (In terms of creating a favorable atmosphere)

[Zardoz]

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...

Large, indeed. Is it really as big as it looks? Have I indicated it correctly?

[storms in NC]

With the Ridge in the Atlantic I really don't see it being much this year. We may get a few more but I am not looking for much more than a few TD or TS at most. I don't know what Dr Gray was seeing this year when he said the east coast would have more than average. About the only east coast will see any thing is Mexico Or SA IMO. Every thing is flying to the west on the 10 yard line.
Thing have got to change before we get any more. Dean will be our only and last cat5 for the year.JMO

[DESTRUCTION5]

I really think this wave is gonna go..It has all the aspects of a big Storm..

[cycloneye]

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS REPOSITIONED BACK TO 27W S OF 21N MOVING W 10
KT. A DOMINATE 1012 MB LOW IS NOW SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
NEAR 14N27W. BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERS THE AREA
FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 24W-33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE
LOW CENTER FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 26W-30W.


http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

2 PM discussion of wave by TPC.Will this be invest 98L soon?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Looking very nice on visible imagery...It needs convection though...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[punkyg]

Well if this baby can get more convection around its center, then we'll see
98L

[ronjon]

Massive circulation covering 5 degs of lat-long. This one is a player folks. When it grabs some convection - look out. This one definitely has the built-in circulation to become a powerful tropical cyclone. The only inhibiting factor is its over relatively cool water at 14N. As it travels west, it should get into more favorable condtions for development.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[storms in NC]

This is higher north than the rest of the waves that have came off the AFcoast.

[punkyg]

Do you think it will rebuild it convection back during di-max tonight.

[storms in NC]

I don't see why it wouldn't. They do most of the time when they are trying to build up. If it don't then I wouldn't whole much hope in this wave.

[punkyg]

So why didn't it do it last night?

[CrazyC83]

This might just be a SAL-buster for the wave beneath it...