Season Cancel? Switch Has Yet to Turn On

[gatorcane]

do you really think they are legitimate invests? They all are struggling to me. But I do think it is possible the on switch is ready...

I am glad to see some are bold enough to suggest writing off the season. Those people may just be right in the end.

[dwg71]

I think this thread title will need to be changed very soon. As evidenced by the number of invests we have - hardly "pathetic" going into the Labor day weekend - not only is the "on" switch about to turn on, I think someone already has his finger on it.

we are down to 3 invests and two of them have a very short window (96L & 97L), 94 has more time. Its really only marginally above "pathetic", nothing is imminent.

[jasons2k]

I don't think there is any such thing as an illigitimate invest. Do I think all 4 will become a TD? No. But any one of them has a shot in one way or another, even 95 if it hangs around for a few days.

I think it's all a matter of perspective. If this were early July and we had 3 or 4 invests up on NRL people would think Doomsday was upon us. In contrast, I won't say "Season Cancel" when going into Labor Day weekend we have 3/4 invests out there waiting for the "F" storm. Not to sound offensive, but I think it's plain nonsense to think this season doesn't have a full tank waiting for someone to just tap the gas pedal, or to use Mike's analogy, to flip the switch...

It seems in 2006 everyone had the 2005 hyperactivity jitters and now in 2007 everyone has the 2006 dead-season jitters. 2007 has already shown it won't be a sleeper, but it might be a creeper.

[Ed Mahmoud]

How would you want a repeat of 1914? (1 tropical storm, 0 hurricanes)

One tropical storm that they know of. No aircraft, no satellites, and with WW1 starting, I suspect ship traffic avoided certain areas to avoid attack.

[SoonerMaximus]

How would you want a repeat of 1914? (1 tropical storm, 0 hurricanes)

One tropical storm that they know of. No aircraft, no satellites, and with WW1 starting, I suspect ship traffic avoided certain areas to avoid attack.

I agree with this. Was it Dr. Masters that posted something indicating the advances in technology compared to the number of storms identified over the years? Who knows how many were missed in the first half of the last century?

[dwg71]

95 - Dead, 96 Nearly Dead, 97 still has a little time but door is nearly shut, 94 - who knows, but nothing at least for 3 or 4 days IMO.

[Downdraft]

I can't believe anyone would call this season over considering we are just finishing up August. Florida's DEM doesn't think it's over and I don't see anyone at the NHC taking vacation yet.

[dwg71]

I think people are confusing, less active or more normal, than expert predictions as a case that people are saying that the season will be a dud.

Most people are oly speaking of volume as compared to what was predicted. If 17 was predicted and we get 11, it was a dud.

Nobody is saying we wont get another storm, just that we dont think it will be as active as once predicted.

[jasons2k]

I think people are confusing, less active or more normal, than expert predictions as a case that people are saying that the season will be a dud.

Most people are oly speaking of volume as compared to what was predicted. If 17 was predicted and we get 11, it was a dud.

Nobody is saying we wont get another storm, just that we dont think it will be as active as once predicted.

Then what does "Season Cancel", in the title of this thread, exactly supposed to mean then??

[dwg71]

I think people are confusing, less active or more normal, than expert predictions as a case that people are saying that the season will be a dud.

Most people are oly speaking of volume as compared to what was predicted. If 17 was predicted and we get 11, it was a dud.

Nobody is saying we wont get another storm, just that we dont think it will be as active as once predicted.

Then what does "Season Cancel", in the title of this thread, exactly supposed to mean then??

First its - "Season Cancel?", secondly I think the term has been thrown around so much that its taken on a life of its own and truly is not intended to mean "no more storms" the rest of the season, just that it will be a below normal to normal season and not what experts predicted.

I might be wrong, but that is how I interpret it.

Peace.

[jasons2k]

[Deleted]. It's just not worth it.

[Stratosphere747]

[Deleted]. It's just not worth it.

It really is pointless Jason, and we have these threads every year.

Some of the very same people that make these calls will be the first to run straight into this forum if something were to threaten their area. And on top of that, using some analogy of the most historic storms to have ever effected that said area.

It's nothing new, and will never change.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Who was it earlier this season who said that this was going to be a "late" hurricane season? It was a Pro Met, I do know that. Wxman57 or Mike Watkins maybe? So far they're on the money with that prediction, as the only really significant storm has been Dean. Not forgetting about Erin, just that she wasn't strong as a tropical system.

I think this season is on the verge of popping like popcorn. As that met said around the beginning of the year, it is a "late" season. Maybe I'm going WAY off on something, but I have an analogy:

July was like June. August was like July. September may be like August. October may be like September.

Get the picture?

Yes, it's true that Dean would therefore have become only the second Category 5 hurricane in "July," with the other being Emily. If conditions can stay that favorable as we approach a potential late peak in activity, it is MUCH too soon to let your guards down!

This season reminds me of a slightly more ominous 2001. A couple storms here and there forming from non-tropical origin (Andrea and Chantal, much like Allison in '01), some early bloomers struggling to get going (Barry and Erin, much like the Barry of '01 and the Dean of '01), and a powerhouse (this year's Dean, which 01's Chantal certainly had the potential to be, as Iris would later show us).

As for steering currents, I'm not sure what that strong ridge is going to do, but my guess is it will eventually erode later in the month. If that happens, I fully expect a blockbuster hurricane to hit the U.S. before all is said and done. Humberto, are you listening? (He's my pick.)

-Andrew92

[ConvergenceZone]

I just know that the Atlantic is filled with pathetic looking invests right now...nothing encouraging for development at all right now...

[Cyclone1]

*sigh* season cancel threads. Every...single...lull. I'm not going to say anything, this time.

[jaxfladude]

How about a season with no land falling systems anywhere in the Atlantic Basin(or any other)

[jaxfladude]

*sigh* season cancel threads. Every...single...lull. I'm not going to say anything, this time.

"Season Cancel" vs "OMG It is going to hit my area as a Cat 1-5!"
*Lull* my sore rear end due to hours of surfing Storm2K Forums!

[Cyclone1]

*sigh* season cancel threads. Every...single...lull. I'm not going to say anything, this time.

"Season Cancel" vs "OMG It is going to hit my area as a Cat 1-5!"
*Lull* my sore rear end due to hours of surfing Storm2K Forums!

I'm prefectly fine with lulls. Lulls are great, gives me some time to relax. It's the season cancel threads that tend to annoy me. If the season is stormless for a week, people start posting season cancel threads. Seasons cannot be cancelled before October. Especially a season that is showing consistent La Nina characteristics. But like I said, I've spoken on this topic many times before, I'll hold my peace this time.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Why are people lashing out at those like me predicting
a quieter season? These same people don't lash out at people
predicting active seasons. I know the experts predicted an
active season, but that doesn't give anyone a right to be
incredibly RUDE to those who disagree with them...
Which is why I made the tone of my original quiet
prediction yesterday sound Harsh. I anticipated the
lambasting that was coming.
Look, it's one thing to disagree, but to say things like "oh nevermind"
implying that you really wanted to lash out is just ridiculous.

As for me I don't want hurricanes...but a weak tropical storm
to end this ridiculously dry august (except the first few days which
were very wet with 8 inches of rain) but now not a drop of rain
has fallen over my house in weeks. The last time it rained was
before even august 8th.

TS Barry was perfect. It provided rain and 40 mph winds. It was
needed.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

And yes, people say this each year. But does that make them
stupid? No. It's just a prediction!