Wave E of the Leewards

[cheezyWXguy]

Where is this in relation to the Herbert (?) box? I forget.

I think the Hurbert box is just north of PR at 20N

Dang..how many times have they posed articles and threads on this thing here? Its called the Hebert Box. It is pronounced "a bear". Not to be rude, but ive seen dozens of threads posted on that topic before.

[gatorcane]

and I think finally we are going to have something of interest that South Florida and the Bahamas may need to watch....

Looking really nice this afternoon. Lots of moisture and plenty of real estate to work with

as it moves WNW

[gatorcane]

Luis, it does look like Jeanne where she started back in 2004:

If the convection persists it will almost certainly be mentioned in the next TWO....

[ConvergenceZone]

This should be a player, going through a down cycle as far as convection is concerned, but I'm sure we'll see many of these cycles over the next day or so...Once convection refires, it should get mentioned in the next TWO, but we need a bit more convection than what we had earlier for them to even consider it....It's a player though, that's for sure.

[CourierPR]

The convection appears to be getting better organized.

[ConvergenceZone]

The convection appears to be getting better organized.

The shape of the wave looks good, but we just need some deeper convection colors in there for this to get noticed, that's why it's being ignored currently...in due time.

[fci]

Where is this in relation to the Herbert (?) box? I forget.

I think the Hurbert box is just north of PR at 20N

Dang..how many times have they posed articles and threads on this thing here? Its called the Hebert Box. It is pronounced "a bear". Not to be rude, but ive seen dozens of threads posted on that topic before.

You are correct on the pronunciation; Hebert is of cajun origin so the "bert" part is pronounced "bear"

There are two boxes.
The one being talked about here is Box #1 which is between 15-20 and 60-65

Box #2 comes into play in the late season and is between 15-20 and 80-85.

Hurricane City has the explanation and statistics at the following link:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[Gustywind]

Yeah guys, deep convection and persistence is the key factor, this has a good overall structure, low shear, dry has gone, a small window seems opening for this area
Looking good, latest from meteo-france at 1pm:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Not much dry air ahead this system:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv.jpg
Low shear around it...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7sht.html

[HURAKAN]

TWD 205:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST NEAR 15
KT. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED ON THE NORTHERN END OF
WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 51W-56W. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER REMAINS E OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N46W...WHICH IS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE PRETTY SOON AND A
NEW LOW COULD FORM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N/15N. MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SUNDAY EVENING
AND THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO MON.

[wzrgirl1]

what is the forecast for troughs and/or high pressures for the next week?

[gatorcane]

plenty of moisture with it too. I am really liking this system...nearly Sept 10th....(the peak)...A high building into the north, low UL winds...nothing but east to west low-to-mid level windflow ahead of it...

[Kennethb]

Looks like this wave will have to compete with the wave to the east.

[flwxwatcher]

plenty of moisture with it too. I am really liking this system...nearly Sept 10th....(the peak)...A high building into the north, low UL winds...nothing but east to west low-to-mid level windflow ahead of it...

Gator.. agreed, I think this wave has a real good chance to develop down the road. Interesting week ahead for the Tropics.

[Vortex]

Agree Gator..

We should see a nice blowup of convection tonight...

[wzrgirl1]

peak of the season could get rather interesting

[Gustywind]

Vortex wrote:"Agree Gator..

We should see a nice blowup of convection tonight..."
Yeah vortex popping trend on tape

[windstorm99]

Nothing to get to worried about with this wave as of now.Ive noticed overall the past 2-3 hours convection has been on the decrease and as always persistence is key with any developing tropical cyclone.Adrian

[Blown Away]

The NHC Tropical Outlook doesn't even mention this wave. Are there any models that develop this wave?

[wzrgirl1]

nope no models develop it.....


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[windstorm99]

Persistence as always is key.Decrease in thunderstorm activity over the past couple of hours.