Western Caribbean Disturbance

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 11:45 UTC

[punkyg]

Does it have a low pressure center with it?
can anybody tell.

i have a pic, but i still can't tell.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think its time for and INVESTIGATION here folks..94 to be exact.

[KatDaddy]

Yes. This is looking much more interesting than 93L. I expect this to be 94L very soon.

[HURAKAN]

latest:



It should at least be mentioned in the next TWO.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[hurricanetrack]

Nothing special going on with it:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PERSIST OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEST OF 78W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 17N84W TO 10N78W AND A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT RELATED TO AN UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS
MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N79W. THIS RIDGE...COUPLED WITH THE
PANAMANIAN OR COLOMBIAN LOW IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. NW TO WLY UPPER
FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED JUST N OF HISPANIOLA COVERS THE REGION BETWEEN 64W-74W.
AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS A RIDGE
INTO THE FAR E PORTION OF THE BASIN. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT
REMAINS FAIRLY RELAXED ACROSS THE AREA...DUE TO THE LOW IN THE
ERN GULF AND WEAK TROUGHING IN THE WRN ATLC. THIS IS KEEPING THE
TRADE WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY STRONGER NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST TODAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED IN THE WRN
CARIB.

[gatorcane]

Perhaps the models were not lying when they all were showing the REAL system coming up from the SW Caribbean towards the GOM just 5 days ago. I personally don't classify 93L as something that we even care about. Its too weak.

This blob in the Western Caribbean does look interesting but the key is PERSISTENCE.

Here is what the 8:05AM TWD says. Nothing more than a surface trough at the moment. Something to watch but I am not impressed yet at all.

CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PERSIST OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEST OF 78W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 17N84W TO 10N78W AND A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT RELATED TO AN UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS
MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N79W. THIS RIDGE...COUPLED WITH THE
PANAMANIAN OR COLOMBIAN LOW IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 13:15 UTC

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 13:45 UTC

[Stratosphere747]

Models are easy to dismiss. Only thing that is mildly interesting is that the GFS has been consistently developing the Caribbean mess for a few days from run to run, and not dropping it.

54hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054m.gif

[jhamps10]

oh good morning everyone.

I am shocked, and I do mean shocked to not see this meantioned in the TWO, and to gatorcane, it's had good convection for a good 30-36 hours now.

I haven't looked at a sat loop yet this morning, but I'd say that the GFS is still way too fast on speed of this thing.

[gatorcane]

oh good morning everyone.

I am shocked, and I do mean shocked to not see this meantioned in the TWO, and to gatorcane, it's had good convection for a good 30-36 hours now.

I haven't looked at a sat loop yet this morning, but I'd say that the GFS is still way too fast on speed of this thing.

Don't be shocked surface troughs flare up all the time. By tonight it mostly likely will be POOF.

[punkyg]

Last night it didn't go poof.

[Sanibel]

Wish we could get a Floater on it. TWC said this was the area of focus in the Atlantic.

[jhamps10]

Wish we could get a Floater on it. TWC said this was the area of focus in the Atlantic.

I'll second that, looks like this could be 94L by the end of the day.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211529
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[cajungal]

TWC keeps repeatly saying that conditions will be unfavorable and it probably won't develop. It looks pretty good to me though.

[Stormcenter]

TWC keeps repeatly saying that conditions will be unfavorable and it probably won't develop. It looks pretty good to me though.

I don't see it as a player right now and moving westward anyway per HNC.