Western Caribbean Thread

[Cyclone1]

May not develop until it reaches the western Caribbean, but that western Caribbean is just prime for development.

[cycloneye]

Agreed.A thread is now open for the Caribbean.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98576&p=1653410#p1653410

Why start yet another one? lol

We could just use this one, or another one, and combine them.

Merged threads.

[BigA]

I dont think this will develop where it is now (though shear is pretty low for now), but it may provide the energy necessary in a few days to get something going in the Western Caribbean.

[Vortex]

if this system reaches the western carribean we could really see quite a storm..Also, GFS for the past 3 runs continues to develop a closed low in the central carribean and tracking it west to the SW carribean. It then meanders for several days in the SW carribean before lifting north..Some of the biggest october storms have their roots tracked back to the islands/east carribean. This system has a nice envelope and deep convection. This will likely be in the western carribean in about 4 days..

[cycloneye]

Cayman Islands

Pressures continue low in Western Caribbean.Here are the Cayman Islands observations.

[BigA]

It looks like what's needed for development is some sort of energy. Maybe the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles right now will provide it in a few days.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 102109
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN
WWWW

[Vortex]

18Z GFS rolling in shortly...It should be interesting to see if the trend the past 3 runs continues in developing a closed low over the central carribean and heading west towards the SW carribean..

[BigA]

I guess this fits in with the western caribbean thread, but I wonder if there is some sort of secondary circulation on the northeastern part of the Yucatan. It sort of looks like it in the visible loop, but it could well by an illusion

[Vortex]

GFS 18 Z

+12 nearing southern windwards

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif

+18 over southern windwards

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018l.gif

[Vortex]

H+60 Low forms on wave in central carribean **4th run of GFS indicating formation of Low**

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

H+66 Low just N of SA coastline

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

H+78 Just of the Coast of SA and well SSE of Jamaica

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

H+84 a little stronger and entering SW carribean

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

H+96 Stronger and over SW carribean

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

H+114 spinning over the SW carribean

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif




**Whats significant is the GFS for 4 runs in a row has been depicting low pressure forming from the wave near the southern windwards this evening. The runs have been almost identical with regards to low pressure formation and then spinning over the SW carribean before heading north***

If we see this trend continue for another run or two I think its likely this sceanrio will pan out. I also expect other Globals to join GFS over the next few days...

[Vortex]

For those residents in the path of this wave(Barbados,martinique,guadeloupe) please keep us up to date on weather conditions tonight/Thursday.

[HUC]

O.K vortex,if...there is something of interest,of course.

[Gustywind]

Latest from Meteo-France 6pm
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

Hi vortex, nothing to add today i have no rain the sky were greyno winds here only a moist air can be feel but nothing more. Whereas we should experience more showers and scattered thunderstorms tommorow morning given the lastest foreacasts of Meteo-France Guadeloupe. The yellow alert is maintained for Martiniqua for a light to moderate risk of rain showers ands tstorms...

[Vortex]

Barbados-Sustained at 24 mph at 6pm

Observed at: Grantley Adams, BR
Elevation: 184 ft / 56 m

77 °F / 25 °C
Light Rain
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 73 °F / 23 °C
Wind: 24 mph / 39 km/h / 10.8 m/s from the ESE
Pressure: 29.92 in / 1013 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 5.6 miles / 9.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Few 900 ft / 274 m
Scattered Clouds 1400 ft / 426 m
Mostly Cloudy 1600 ft / 487 m
(Above Ground Level)

[cycloneye]

18z GFS Loop

Is very long range so is not good to look at it as a given but anyway,I am posting this 18z GFS run,where it shows the same low that gets stuck in the SW Caribbean for days after it moves from the Eastern Caribbean developing and moves NE thru Cuba and the Bahamas.

[Sanibel]

Still a slow fuse for development. 94L still has the Low center and trough axis for now.

Antilles wave persisting.

[Sanibel]

Hasn't disappeared yet. I'm ignoring the models on this for now since it hasn't really formed.

[Gustywind]

Hi Huc how are you....moreover what are the weather conditions in your location?

[Sanibel]

If you look at this the circulation is further into EPAC than Atlantic. That probably explains the WSW pull. This has a huge drawing area as seen in the IR shot. If it developed over the western Caribbean instead of Yucatan I would expect a strong system.