Wave WSW of CV Islands

[blp]

No question this will take time to fully consolidate but I can definitely see 90L winning out on the dominate vort based on tonight's blow-up.

[Recurve]

One thing that everyone including myself is forgetting that a low hasn't been initialized yet so once that happens well have a better idea on track.

Words of wisdom at a time of late-night model speculation, always welcome. Let the spin-seeking begin.

[gatorcane]

One thing that everyone including myself is forgetting that a low hasn't been initialized yet so once that happens well have a better idea on track.

Words of wisdom at a time of late-night model speculation, always welcome. Let the spin-seeking begin.

True -- if you look at where the most spinning is tonight, GFS initialized very nicely. Of course that may not be where the ultimate low forms.

[Sanibel]

That GFS synoptic would send it up the east coast of Florida and into the Carolinas in my opinion. Floyd II.

[Vortex]

00Z Nogaps
H+96 similar to 18Z run....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[StormClouds63]

The following is just an opinion from a S2K participant and is not an official forecast.

There will be opportunties for the system to move more northwest as the ridge weakens ... then builds back in ... then weakens again. A complex forecast. Look for the models to shift back and forth on a daily basis as next week progresses. Some models do well with ridges and troughing; others, do not. Better chance this remains an Atlantic system throughout, but if the ridge is stronger than predicted, could easily cross south Florida and into the GOM (e.g. Bonnie). Intensity could reach category 2 or 3, depending on track. Low-rider stays more intense and would likely pick-up more foreward speed under the ridge, IMO. No need for anyone to be overly concerned ATM ... several days away and system has not formed yet. If it develops, Colin could still surprise us all and take a "fishing" trip.

[JTD]

That GFS synoptic would send it up the east coast of Florida and into the Carolinas in my opinion. Floyd II.

Holy mother of god. That image is impressive!! I have not seen anything that impressive in the East Atlantic in a while. Perhaps this is the ramp-up to t.d status.

BTW: sorry for quoting the image. I won't do that again.

[gatorcane]

code red by 2AM?

[SFLcane]

code red by 2AM?

I'am still puzzled why there not running model plots on this.

[cycloneye]

No, is not invest officially, but this is a image from test invest PGI-22L.

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI22L.html

[blp]

It seems like NOGAPS hangs on the mid level vort currently towards the NE of 90L and makes that the dominant one.

00Z Nogaps
H+96 similar to 18Z run....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[gatorcane]

The following is just an opinion from a S2K participant and is not an official forecast.

There will be opportunties for the system to move more northwest as the ridge weakens ... then builds back in ... then weakens again. A complex forecast. Look for the models to shift back and forth on a daily basis as next week progresses. Some models do well with ridges and troughing; others, do not. Better chance this remains an Atlantic system throughout, but if the ridge is stronger than predicted, could easily cross south Florida and into the GOM (e.g. Bonnie). Intensity could reach category 2 or 3, depending on track. Low-rider stays more intense and would likely pick-up more foreward speed under the ridge, IMO. No need for anyone to be overly concerned ATM ... several days away and system has not formed yet. If it develops, Colin could still surprise us all and take a "fishing" trip.

I think the ECMWF is probably the best model at handling ridges and troughs in the long-range. The 12Z runs shows something similar to the GFS in fact building the ridge at around 168 hours and sending this west. Will be interesting to see some future runs of the ECMWF. When the GFS and ECMWF both show something similar in the medium-long range, that's quite interesting. If anything GFS tends to break down ridges too quickly. Only the CMC shows a large trough at this point.

[Florida1118]

Who sees the letter being retired C being retired this year? MHO is this is 40 or 50 %. still got a few days until its better organized.

[Sanibel]

Hard to say, but the round organized black IR burst followed by the present split robust convection could be the storm quickly jumping into gear and expanding quickly. No way to tell until it plays out. Convection activity like this in the August ITCZ usually turns into a good storm.

[TwisterFanatic]

I think its is possible to have a Code Red at 2AM.

[cycloneye]

I say 50% at 2 AM TWO.

[boca]

Wouldn't this be totally mind blowing if we all wake up tomorrow morning say 10am and this thing goes poof. I don't think that will happen.

[hurricaneCW]

You can thank the record warm sst's in that region for those super cold cloud tops. Those grays are continuously popping all over the system.

[Brent]

That GFS synoptic would send it up the east coast of Florida and into the Carolinas in my opinion. Floyd II.

Holy mother of god. That image is impressive!! I have not seen anything that impressive in the East Atlantic in a while. Perhaps this is the ramp-up to t.d status.

BTW: sorry for quoting the image. I won't do that again.

If this isn't a TD by Monday I'll be shocked. That's very impressive.

[boca]

Is it normal to have this area a code orange and not be a invest yet. I find that wierd.