NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Weatherfreak000]

The BOC low has a less than 1% chance of winning this battle. The wind shear is just too strong. After that when you have to factor in land interaction, the odds just seem far too low, and the best models around all appear to corroborate with that.

Not impossible, just unlikely.

well its mostly the fact that its much much smaller than the large circulation pattern in the low in the eastern gulf that and the yucatan is mostly midlevel. it will likely start rotating around the larger low and get stretched out as that one deepens.

That was an excellent analysis Aric, couldn't agree more. Only question I have left is what happens if it does indeed meander in the Gulf..

[SunnyThoughts]

Is it in the realm of possibility that BOTH of these areas develop and give us the D and E storm in the next few days?

[Aric Dunn]

The BOC low has a less than 1% chance of winning this battle. The wind shear is just too strong. After that when you have to factor in land interaction, the odds just seem far too low, and the best models around all appear to corroborate with that.

Not impossible, just unlikely.

well its mostly the fact that its much much smaller than the large circulation pattern in the low in the eastern gulf that and the yucatan is mostly midlevel. it will likely start rotating around the larger low and get stretched out as that one deepens.

That was an excellent analysis Aric, couldn't agree more. Only question I have left is what happens if it does indeed meander in the Gulf..

well its going to be meandering regardless and going to take time to consolidate. drifting around as steering is not all the strong and then the blocking high the HPC mentioned will build in keeping texas out of then a shortwave will swing down around the high and slowly pick up whatever is there.... real question is... will the shear drop enough to allow it to organize.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Is it in the realm of possibility that BOTH of these areas develop and give us the D and E storm in the next few days?

I think that is possible but for some strange reason the models seem to be picking one or the other. Either way lots of rain for FL and if it does shoot west following its rain-dump over Florida than Texas gets some tropical action next week.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

[ROCK]

with shear screaming at 40-50knts and expected to increase...I dont see anything deepening any time soon whatever swirl takes over....

[jlauderdal]

2 PM TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

seems like they are more bullish but the reality is it probably has about a 5% chance of developing in 48 hours, 72 hours and beyond is a different story, rain is diminishing in sofla now, atmosphere is stabilizing at least for now, still plenty of pwat

[northjaxpro]

Well, based on TWO alone NHC apparently is hedging their thinking on the SE Gulf spin to eventually become the dominant Low Pressure area as time progresses, which I agree with as well.

[Ivanhater]

For some reason, the models like this system more today

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow:Well, based on TWO alone NHC apparently is hedging their thinking on the SE Gulf spin to eventually become the dominant Low Pressure area as time progresses, which I agree with as well.

yep, another very slow moving system through the gulf, we are in florida so of course we must agree with the easterly solution...

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow:Well, based on TWO alone NHC apparently is hedging their thinking on the SE Gulf spin to eventually become the dominant Low Pressure area as time progresses, which I agree with as well.

Thats because of what i mentioned previously. the circulation pattern is much larger and at the surface while the small vort over the yucatan is mostly in the mid levels and will likely just get absorbed into the much larger developing circ.


500mb vort. shows the yuctan swirl.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor2.GIF

while the 850 show very little to nothing there but high vorticity in the South eastern gulf.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF

edited by tolakram, hotlinked images removed

[Aric Dunn]

For some reason, the models like this system more today

becasue there is something to track. although broad its actually there ,... rather than just some convection there is a surface reflection.

[GCANE]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

[ROCK]

OBs barfing out everywhere around the supposed area....not doing anything soon....

[HouTXmetro]

Impressive convection in organized MLC over Yucatan. Impressive unorganized convection convection near island of youth.

[ROCK]

Impressive convection in organized MLC over Yucatan. Impressive unorganized convection convection near island of youth.

Agree...the YUC looks a lot better....look just offshore to the west....its tilted yes because of the shear but the MLC is off the coast and just shot off a hot tower over water...

[ROCK]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

they just split the difference between the 2 systems.....there you go....

[northjaxpro]

Yep, I am with Aric's rational on the SE Gulf spin. You can see the substantial pronounced area of convergence in the SE Gulf / Florida Straits region, and eventually with significant vorticity, a low level reflection will translate shortly to the surface. It will take take a bit of time to consolidate due to the shear currently, but that is forecast to decrease to marginal levels (20knots or so or slightly less) within the next couple of days.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro..48 hours



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[ROCK]

12z Euro..48 hours



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that looks like the YUC area.....hmmm...I wonder...