2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I could see this one developing as it moves off the US East Coast. Looks like too much land interaction in the GOMEX for anything to get excited about.

[wxman57]

I could see this one developing as it moves off the US East Coast. Looks like too much land interaction in the GOMEX for anything to get excited about.

Agree, the place to watch is offshore of the Carolinas next Mon/Tue.

[northjaxpro]

I could see this one developing as it moves off the US East Coast. Looks like too much land interaction in the GOMEX for anything to get excited about.

I agree as it looks right now.

[psyclone]

I'm just hoping we can get some cooling rains. Can't ever recall seeing dry stressed grass and weeds around here on the last day of June.

[OuterBanker]

I think a round of Rock, Paper, Scissors between the Gulf and SEUS on which will form first is in order. (Yes, I posted on each forum).
I’ll go with SEUS (without prejudice of course).

[northjaxpro]

OK, here is the 12Z rundown looking just to Sunday Morning. I touched on the GFS above earlier::


EURO
850 mb vort 120 hr position (Florida Panhandle)

UKMET

144 hr 1012 mb Low Pressure
Near Panama City, FL

CANADIAN

850 mb vort over Florida Panhandle 12Z Sunday morning


ICON

1009 mb Low Pressure off shore Myrtle Besch, SC

[TheProfessor]

East coast formation is certainly looking more likely right now. Since we already have a thread for that I won't edit the title for this one. The UKMET still brings this very close to the Florida coast so I wouldn't completely rule out a possible strengthening unnamed system riding the edge of the coast before turning east towards Florida.

[USTropics]

12z operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement on potential EC development later next week:





One interesting evolution to watch on the GFS is the tropical wave that will be exiting the coast of Africa in ~48 hours:



The system off the EC sticks around long enough for the moisture envelope of this wave to interact with it:

[stormlover2013]

We are about to have 5 game storms and it’s not even July mid July

[GCANE]

System hitting the West African coast in 48 hrs.
Very near being a warm core.

[Ubuntwo]

System hitting the West African coast in 48 hrs.
Very near being a warm core.

https://i.imgur.com/Ignmrmj.png

Look at the RH values as it exits.

It's not doing anything in that environment at that latitude.

[TheProfessor]

18z GFS is faster, stronger, and further southeast off the East coast compared to the 12z run. The energy is fairly tight and strengthening by this weekend.

[MetroMike]

We are about to have 5 game storms and it’s not even July mid July

Its not about the quantity its about the quality imo.
5 named storms pretty much inconsequential ones.

[aspen]

18z GFS develops this in only 108 hours, and has another STC around 40N/60W in only 84 hours, because why not?

[aspen]

We are about to have 5 game storms and it’s not even July mid July

Its not about the quantity its about the quality imo.
5 named storms pretty much inconsequential ones.

Well, it’s only the end of June. Conditions aren’t quite favorable for anything rather significant just yet.

[Hammy]

We are about to have 5 game storms and it’s not even July mid July

Its not about the quantity its about the quality imo.
5 named storms pretty much inconsequential ones.

The fact that the storms that have so far developed haven't really struggled in any way outside of land interaction (and in fact have been overperforming) shows that the background state is very favorable, especially compared to the last few years. Everything so far this year was limited by geography--Cristobal stalled too long over Central America, Bertha was quickly intensifying but ran out of room, and Arthur/Dolly were increasing in organization until moving outside the Gulf Stream and into cooler waters.

[floridasun78]

other issue is SAL we need less of it for us see any storm in far Atlantic and carribbean

[tailgater]

The GEM has had been up graded and from what I’ve seen done fairly well in comparison to the other global Models but it’s sorta on it’s own here, so take it for what it’s worth

[CyclonicFury]

00z GFS develops a low pressure system off the U.S. East Coast, eventually intensifying it into a bonafide 979-mb Category 1 hurricane by hour 162 as it moves away from the US.

[stormlover2013]

other issue is SAL we need less of it for us see any storm in far Atlantic and carribbean

Sal is always like this early