Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[ConvergenceZone]

Remember, if this wave is really big and ends up with a large circulation, It’s going to take quite awhile for it to develop, which then favors the west track

[LarryWx]

Let’s just go with climatology and state that OTS is most likely (not guaranteed, but heavily favoured) at this point.

Paulette will hit Bermuda while en route OTS, Rene will head OTS, and this system will likely follow in the latter’s wake.

Too many folks still don't know how to use climatology. They think we think it tells us where a storm WILL go, what it WILL do etc. But as we know, it mainly gives us a general idea about probabilities with all other things being held constant and that we then modify it in whatever direction depending on the current situation. Climo is an excellent tool but it is not a crystal ball.

Also, whenever climo favors no landfall OTS, it is questioned more than if it favors a landfall. When favoring a landfall it is more readily accepted. Funny how that works. The reason: bias. Many people prefer a more interesting scenario. Landfall potential is usually more interesting than a fish storm even if not actually more desirable. The same applies to model runs that favor OTS, which are questioned more, vs LF, which are accepted more.

I try to post model runs, climo, and other things with a goal of objectivity more than anything else.

[SFLcane]

very messy... That's why all these runs are different.

[SFLcane]

18z GFS rolling...

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS rolling...

Happy Hour... Drink up!!!

[SFLcane]

18Z Icon is way west.

[Aric Dunn]

no interaction this run. .. same as last so far.

[CaribJam]

30 pages for a tropical wave that has only just emerged from West Africa, and it isn't an invest yet. It must be the peak of the hurricane season

It would be interesting to find out why this TW with a 60/90 chance of development, has not yet been designated an INVEST.

Is this unusual?

[DestinHurricane]

30 pages for a tropical wave that has only just emerged from West Africa, and it isn't an invest yet. It must be the peak of the hurricane season

It would be interesting to find out why this TW with a 60/90 chance of development, has not yet been designated an INVEST.

Is this unusual?

Because it is so far from threatening any land.

[AnnularCane]

30 pages for a tropical wave that has only just emerged from West Africa, and it isn't an invest yet. It must be the peak of the hurricane season

It would be interesting to find out why this TW with a 60/90 chance of development, has not yet been designated an INVEST.

Is this unusual?

Because it is so far from threatening any land.

It's still puzzling. But I'm sure it will be any minute now.

Yep. Annnny minute now...

[Aric Dunn]

Little to no change for the GFS through 72 hours..

the rest of the run is irrelevant.

[SFLcane]

Split no interaction. Heading west and quickly

[Cat5James]

Split no interaction. Heading west and quickly

https://i.postimg.cc/XJh52Hvf/57500-BCD-9-C2-C-48-D4-9356-F8-CA1-E66-ED72.gif

Ridge building back south of whatever left of Rene

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 84, much more vorticity than 12z.

[SouthFLTropics]

I got a feeling we're going to see a pretty powerful hurricane in the Caribbean on this run.

[toad strangler]

Hour 84, much more vorticity than 12z.

Yes sir, the biggest difference so far. Could mean an even earlier re-curve. We'll see here ...

[NDG]

18z GFS so far through 102 hr is very persistent on its southern track and stronger than previous two runs.

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 84, much more vorticity than 12z.

Yes sir, the biggest difference so far. Could mean an even earlier re-curve. We'll see here ...

Not with the ridge that the 500mb charts are showing. It's Westward bound. And as you pointed out, at a good clip too.

[NDG]

Hour 84, much more vorticity than 12z.

Yes sir, the biggest difference so far. Could mean an even earlier re-curve. We'll see here ...

I don't see that happening, is heading straight towards the Islands, still showing a strong ridge to the NNW of it.

[gfsperpendicular]

108hr GFS is farther east than 12z but much farther west than 6z. And about 30mb stronger than either of them.