2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IMHO, the extraordinarily active June we're having in the MDR is likely a harbinger for a hyperactive Cape Verde season, unless shear ticks up.

I’m still skeptical. The last two seasons have seen hyped-up early season MDR activity that immediately preceded long periods of hostile conditions and zero TC activity. 2021 had Hurricane Elsa before shutting off for a month. 2022 had the overhyped Bonnie, which ended up being too far south to amount to anything close to the aggressive GFS and Euro outputs, before going on an unprecedented two month slumber as a result of that crazy NW Atl marine heatwave. It’s totally possible that activity once again shuts off for a while starting in early July. Maybe the negative El Niño conditions are able to establish themselves far quicker than currently expected.

Elsa didn't follow that, for sure. There are exceptions.

Bonnie doesn't really count as a Cape Verde system as it developed in the Caribbean, so I wouldn't have used Bonnie as any sort of indicator for MDR activity in 2022.

That being said, I have difficulty seeing any sort of explanation for potentially two June Cape Verde systems as anything other than a big giant red flag.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Good morning everyone! Long time no see. Up in Delaware for the forseeable future now.



Strikingly low dust cover over the MDR is enabling early activity in the region.

[Texoz]

As it relates to all the main indicators, SST, SAL, wind shear, etc. are there any similarities to 2005?

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1670834911983599617

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I do understand the +AMO is incredibly strong as of now. But El nIno will win over warm surface temperatures in the Atlantic. You don't have to believe me, just wait until September rolls around and the Atlantic is SAL/shear stricken

2004

That was a Modoki, however

(Bringing this over to the right thread)

That may be, but Modoki wasn't the sole reason that the Atlantic was hyperactive in 2004. And there have been inactive years with La Nina.

The point that I'm trying to make is that you can't disregard extraordinarily anomalous SSTs, lower-than-average shear, and a whole host of other signals in the Atlantic solely because of a developing El Nino. If this were the case, TC forecasting would be much simpler. What's to say El Nino effects don't come in place until October instead of September? At that point, Cape Verde season will be mostly shutdown anyways.

[ThomasW]

2004

That was a Modoki, however

(Bringing this over to the right thread)

That may be, but Modoki wasn't the sole reason that the Atlantic was hyperactive in 2004. And there have been inactive years with La Nina.

The point that I'm trying to make is that you can't disregard extraordinarily anomalous SSTs, lower-than-average shear, and a whole host of other signals in the Atlantic solely because of a developing El Nino. If this were the case, TC forecasting would be much simpler. What's to say El Nino effects don't come in place until October instead of September? At that point, Cape Verde season will be mostly shutdown anyways.

You make a fine point, although it's important to remember thqat there has only been one above average season in (semi) recent years in an El Nino: 1969. Not impossible we see a "repeat", but the stats are against it. Let's see how things play out with SAL as we head into July.

[Ivanhater]

That was a Modoki, however

(Bringing this over to the right thread)

That may be, but Modoki wasn't the sole reason that the Atlantic was hyperactive in 2004. And there have been inactive years with La Nina.

The point that I'm trying to make is that you can't disregard extraordinarily anomalous SSTs, lower-than-average shear, and a whole host of other signals in the Atlantic solely because of a developing El Nino. If this were the case, TC forecasting would be much simpler. What's to say El Nino effects don't come in place until October instead of September? At that point, Cape Verde season will be mostly shutdown anyways.

You make a fine point, although it's important to remember thqat there has only been one above average season in (semi) recent years in an El Nino: 1969. Not impossible we see a "repeat", but the stats are against it. Let's see how things play out with SAL as we head into July.

Well this would be a first if the season doesn't end above average and rare if not hyperactive

Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

Pattern change coming?

 https://twitter.com/adrianlinares28/status/1670879167464763403

[gatorcane]

Some aclimatological MDR activity could be a harbinger of an above normal or hyperactive Atlantic season, but a stout wall of shear looks to be sitting around Lesser Antilles and points wests which should be the demise of any system that tries to head west. That outcome would be supported by climatology but with an El Niño, and possibly a strong one, expected during the Atlantic peak months, what we are seeing now could also be a rinse and repeat come later, namely activity over the far eastern Atlantic and MDR only for systems to get sheared and struggle if they try to make a run west, unless they recurve and head north into the open Atlantic where better conditions would be present.

[toad strangler]

Some aclimatological MDR activity could be a harbinger of an above normal or hyperactive Atlantic season, but a stout wall of shear looks to be sitting around Lesser Antilles and points wests which should be the demise of any system that tries to head west. That outcome would be supported by climatology but with an El Niño, and possibly a strong one, expected during the Atlantic peak months, what we are seeing now could also be a rinse and repeat come later, namely activity over the far eastern Atlantic and MDR only for systems to get sheared and struggle if they try to make a run west, unless they recurve and head north into the open Atlantic where better conditions would be present.

Agree with your general points regarding ENSO effect downstream in the Caribbean and western portions of the MDR but there is a camp of pros out there questioning if this El Nino will be as strong as projected come peak season AND effects not kicking into high gear until sometime in October. So, just have to wait and see.

[Cpv17]

A season of the fish storms is what it looks like to me. Well at least for now.

[Teban54]

A season of the fish storms is what it looks like to me. Well at least for now.

Not exactly fish when we have a TS threatening the Lesser Antilles now, possibly as a hurricane.

Fish by CONUS standards is more plausible, but of course still nowhere near certain.

[Cpv17]

A season of the fish storms is what it looks like to me. Well at least for now.

Not exactly fish when we have a TS threatening the Lesser Antilles now, possibly as a hurricane.

Fish by CONUS standards is more plausible, but of course still nowhere near certain.

That’s a good point. I just don’t see the CONUS having much to be concerned about this season. But who knows what’ll happen.

[zzzh]

EPS weeklies show multiple CCKWs entering the Atlantic in the next few weeks.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm honestly dumbfounded at how we're basically seeing multiple disturbances form in the deep tropics in the month of JUNE. This is quite an anomaly that something even the blockbuster seasons of 2004, 2005, 2017, and 2020 failed to feature. It is also a very stark contrast with last year, and I believe as long as the deep tropics/Canary Current remain excessively warm and as long as the subtropics remain somewhat cool, "wave-breaking" isn't necessarily going to be something that this hurricane season suffers from.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Some aclimatological MDR activity could be a harbinger of an above normal or hyperactive Atlantic season, but a stout wall of shear looks to be sitting around Lesser Antilles and points wests which should be the demise of any system that tries to head west. That outcome would be supported by climatology but with an El Niño, and possibly a strong one, expected during the Atlantic peak months, what we are seeing now could also be a rinse and repeat come later, namely activity over the far eastern Atlantic and MDR only for systems to get sheared and struggle if they try to make a run west, unless they recurve and head north into the open Atlantic where better conditions would be present.

It's mid June...people are forgetting that's the way it is SUPPOSED to be right now. Even in busy years...that wall of shear which tends to go away in August

[SFLcane]

Some aclimatological MDR activity could be a harbinger of an above normal or hyperactive Atlantic season, but a stout wall of shear looks to be sitting around Lesser Antilles and points wests which should be the demise of any system that tries to head west. That outcome would be supported by climatology but with an El Niño, and possibly a strong one, expected during the Atlantic peak months, what we are seeing now could also be a rinse and repeat come later, namely activity over the far eastern Atlantic and MDR only for systems to get sheared and struggle if they try to make a run west, unless they recurve and head north into the open Atlantic where better conditions would be present.

It's mid June...people are forgetting that's the way it is SUPPOSED to be right now. Even in busy years...that wall of shear which tends to go away in August

This!

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1671531646045114370

[NDG]

You would usually see this satellite pix in the middle or late August, not on June 21st.

[NDG]

Some aclimatological MDR activity could be a harbinger of an above normal or hyperactive Atlantic season, but a stout wall of shear looks to be sitting around Lesser Antilles and points wests which should be the demise of any system that tries to head west. That outcome would be supported by climatology but with an El Niño, and possibly a strong one, expected during the Atlantic peak months, what we are seeing now could also be a rinse and repeat come later, namely activity over the far eastern Atlantic and MDR only for systems to get sheared and struggle if they try to make a run west, unless they recurve and head north into the open Atlantic where better conditions would be present.

Compared to past El Ninos shear is currently much lower across the Caribbean & Atlantic MDR where it is usually fairly strong already in June as the El Nino cranks up. What is different this time is that where we usually find less wind shear during El Ninos is across the subtropical Atlantic, is the other way around this time so far. Time will tell but climate models continue to show much lower shear than you would expect during a moderate to strong El Nino during JAS period.