TD#9

[Derek Ortt]

that said, we should still see at least 15 storms total this year

Even if the season ended today, IT WOULD NOT BE A DUD. Some here do have short attention spans and seem to have already forgotten that Hurricane Dennis is one of the costliest hurricanes ever to impact the USA and some damage estimates are up to 10 billion. If that was the only storm, this seaosn would still be terrible. Throw in Emily, and this season is many times worse

[sma10]

Because cyclones sitting at 20N 40W recurve harmlessly out to sea approximately 100% of the time.

Nothing is ever 100% definite, especially when it deals with TC's. I think that it will remain south enough to avoid the weakness (though a trough that is going to be near the East Coast will recurve it as it approaches IMO), but it should get interesting...

I did not say it was 100% definite.....I said approximately 100%. (It's probably 95%...I just rounded up )

[hicksta]

that said, we should still see at least 15 storms total this year

Even if the season ended today, IT WOULD NOT BE A DUD. Some here do have short attention spans and seem to have already forgotten that Hurricane Dennis is one of the costliest hurricanes ever to impact the USA and some damage estimates are up to 10 billion. If that was the only storm, this seaosn would still be terrible. Throw in Emily, and this season is many times worse

A season with a hurricane impacting the United States or anywhere. Is horrible.

[gkrangers]

It's wrapping! This TD 9 is taking off! We should have a storm here soon. This is unbelievable. Every single one of us, including myself, was about to give up on 9. Not even the NHC had a clue that this was coming. And I admit it that no way did I see this coming either. The high pressure just in less than an hour kicked everything out, in just this past hour, and TD 9 just happened to be slowing down and caught underneath the convection. It was that dang high forward speed all along that was killing it. The sheer was never all that bad. The sheer that had been there as little as an hour ago is gone. i guess that with these systems one can never really know. only GOD can know. now the ridge weakness should assist in helping to lift TD 9 up a little more to the north, which should be good news for the islands.

Six hours from now you are going to be declaring it dead again.

[elysium]

Look at TD 9 now!

[sma10]

It's wrapping! This TD 9 is taking off! We should have a storm here soon. This is unbelievable. Every single one of us, including myself, was about to give up on 9. Not even the NHC had a clue that this was coming. And I admit it that no way did I see this coming either. The high pressure just in less than an hour kicked everything out, in just this past hour, and TD 9 just happened to be slowing down and caught underneath the convection. It was that dang high forward speed all along that was killing it. The sheer was never all that bad. The sheer that had been there as little as an hour ago is gone. i guess that with these systems one can never really know. only GOD can know. now the ridge weakness should assist in helping to lift TD 9 up a little more to the north, which should be good news for the islands.

????

Calm down just a little bit. If by tomorrow you're wrong, this whole paragraph you just wrote is going to seem a little embarrassing.

[gkrangers]

IMO TD 9's LLC is reforming to the north - that could make TD 9's chances of being a fish much higher, we'll see...

Hard to tell. I have two guesses..either under the extreme western edge of the convection, or just to the north of the previous center.

[Astro_man92]

that said, we should still see at least 15 storms total this year

Even if the season ended today, IT WOULD NOT BE A DUD. Some here do have short attention spans and seem to have already forgotten that Hurricane Dennis is one of the costliest hurricanes ever to impact the USA and some damage estimates are up to 10 billion. If that was the only storm, this seaosn would still be terrible. Throw in Emily, and this season is many times worse

WOW that is weird to me for some reason. hmmmm

[Ivanhater]

im thinking it moved closer to the convection

[Scorpion]

Why are people downplaying this season??? Its August 7th for crying out loud! We had one named storm down last year at this time! Favorable conditions cannot occur all the time. This is simply an unfavorable pattern. If this lasts another week people will start saying that the season is over and no more storms will form. All hell will break loose in mid-late August, and im afraid we wont get a break til the end of September.

[gkrangers]

It's wrapping! This TD 9 is taking off! We should have a storm here soon. This is unbelievable. Every single one of us, including myself, was about to give up on 9. Not even the NHC had a clue that this was coming. And I admit it that no way did I see this coming either. The high pressure just in less than an hour kicked everything out, in just this past hour, and TD 9 just happened to be slowing down and caught underneath the convection. It was that dang high forward speed all along that was killing it. The sheer was never all that bad. The sheer that had been there as little as an hour ago is gone. i guess that with these systems one can never really know. only GOD can know. now the ridge weakness should assist in helping to lift TD 9 up a little more to the north, which should be good news for the islands.

????

Calm down just a little bit. If by tomorrow you're wrong, this whole paragraph you just wrote is going to seem a little embarrassing.

Yesterday...he made a post saying this was going to be a monster hurricane, "cataclysmic" in nature. Today he said it would be nothing. Now hes excited again. Like I said, give it till morning, when TD9 is still disorganized and struggling and he'll be calling time of death.

[clfenwi]

Yeah, if I were working at SSD, TAFB, AFWA, I might would be in tears right about now. Or praying that the situation clarifies itself in the next 45 minutes or so. One of the two.

[gkrangers]

Yeah, if I were working at SSD, TAFB, AFWA, I might would be in tears right about now. Or praying that the situation clarifies itself in the next 45 minutes or so. One of the two.

They are probably praying for a QS pass before 5AM. There is just nothing to base intensity and track off right now...completely unpredictable given its current condition.

[Ivanhater]

were definitely in a transition of a center right now, where it ends up could change things, i sure wouldnt want to be officially forecasting this storm

[Sanibel]

Not sure where the center is. It either jumped north into that undefined LLC or is near to the small convection wrapping towards the center...

[superfly]

If the LLC relocated to the just west of the convection, we could very well be looking at Irene by the morning. If it relocated to the north, we could be seeing the death of TD9 sometime tomorrow.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe its right under that new pop of of convection on the western side of the main area of convection.

[Sanibel]

Yesterday...he made a post saying this was going to be a monster hurricane, "cataclysmic" in nature. Today he said it would be nothing. Now hes excited again. Like I said, give it till morning, when TD9 is still disorganized and struggling and he'll be calling time of death.

There was a poster named "trkpzl" over at TWC board who made wildly exaggerated posts similar to this. He chased all the good members off and got the board shut down by the moderators.

[Astro_man92]

really i'm to tired to think but I think it will be persuaded by the ridge to move weast and hit some where on the east coast

wouldn't it be funny if that happened but TD nine traveled inbetween florida and cuba and stengthened into a major hurricane absorbed that wave that might be TD 10 by then who knows, and then died out because it absorbed TD 10 and it oviously had somthing bad about it

lol srry I have a very big imagination

But what would happen if that did happen besides the absorbing of TD 10

It would be awkward and scary I think I'd be saying that storm has to much luck ( typical Irene) lol

[wxmann_91]

Because cyclones sitting at 20N 40W recurve harmlessly out to sea approximately 100% of the time.

Nothing is ever 100% definite, especially when it deals with TC's. I think that it will remain south enough to avoid the weakness (though a trough that is going to be near the East Coast will recurve it as it approaches IMO), but it should get interesting...

I did not say it was 100% definite.....I said approximately 100%. (It's probably 95%...I just rounded up )

About that...sorry. I reread your post and then I found out you said approximately, well I've done this already a million times (misunderstanding posts), I should've edited it or something but whatever. But yes, though the chances of recurving are high, there's still a chance that it moves west of the forecast track.